Stepanek - should not be 3/1 to win a title in 2010.

By Andy Schooler

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	2pts Juan Martin Del Potro to be year-end world number one at 5/1 (Sportingbet).	A real rising force in the game - as he showed at the US Open in 2009.
	6pts Marin Cilic's year-end ranking to be better than 11.5 at 5/6 (Sky Bet & Ladbrokes).	Another rising star who should improve at least three places in 2010.
	4pts Radek Stepanek to win an ATP title at 3/1 (Betfred).	Simply too big for a player ranked 12th in the world.
	3pts David Nalbandian's year-end ranking to be worse than 18.5 at 4/5 (Ladbrokes).	Even the player himself admits he's likely to struggle following hip surgery.
	2pts Rafael Nadal not to win a Grand Slam title at 2/1 (bet365).	Results in the second half of 2009 were poor and his knee trouble may have taken its toll.

Our Andy Schooler runs through his best bets for the 2010 ATP World Tour season.

Year-end number one

A look at the current ATP ranking list makes for familiar reading - Roger Federer on top once again.

But will that be the case in 12 months' time?

If you think so, you can get 5/2 about the Swiss ruling the roost for a sixth time in seven years. However, it's not a price to interest us.

There's little doubt Federer is not going to enjoy the domination of his 2006 hey day again, and the chasing pack appear to be gathering pace. Remember last season, Rafael Nadal was in contention for top spot going into the final week of the season despite not playing for almost three months.

Those injury problems put us off backing Nadal in this market - more on that later. Some will fancy Andy Murray to push on in 2010, but he simply has to do better in the Grand Slams to challenge for the top ranking spot.

Instead the player who smacks of value is Juan Martin Del Potro, who made his major breakthrough by winning this year's US Open. His forehand simply has to be seen to be believed (just ask Federer after that New York final), while his serve is also a potent weapon (again, ask Federer who only just tamed it in the French Open semis). A gritty competitor too, 'Delpo' also made the final of the season-ending event in London where he again played some spectacular tennis.

If he continues in such a vein in 2010, the Argentine can really do some damage and shake up the current order which for so long has seen Federer and Nadal reign supreme. Sportingbet initially had Del Potro up at 7/1 to end the year as world number one and while that's sadly into 5/1, the current price is still one we feel is good value.

To win an ATP World Tour title

Radek Stepanek may not be the most known player on the tour, but the fact is he goes into 2010 as the 12th best player in the world.

So, what price him winning a title over the next 12 months? Answer: a whopping 3/1. Betfred appear to have made a rick here - all 11 of the players ranked above Stepanek are odds-on for a trophy in 2010.

OK, 'Steps' has only ever won four ATP titles but those have all come late in his career (two in 2009, one in 2007 and one in 2006) and clearly being at number 12 in the rankings he's playing some pretty good stuff right now. He's also been a runner-up four times in the past four seasons.

Our thinking is Stepanek deserves a bit more respect. We suggest you make Betfred pay.

Number of Grand Slam titles

As mentioned above, Rafael Nadal spent a large chunk of the 2009 season sidelined by knee trouble. It had been on the cards for some time. The Spaniard has had problems with his knees from a young age (and he's still only 23) with many pundits - including myself - having suggested in the past that the joints may just mean his career is cut short

It would certainly be a shame were that to be the case, but the signs are there that it could happen - or least if the knees were to prevent Nadal performing to his best level.

Since returning to the tour in August, Nadal has beaten a top-10 player just once with many of his peers sending him to heavy defeats.

The reigning Australian Open champion has also looked smaller - his bulging biceps seemingly not as big as they once were. It's been suggested that this was a deliberate ploy to ease the strain on Nadal's knees. The Spaniard denies it, saying his weight has not changed at all, but certainly something has not been right.

OK, in the wake of an injury, players can be excused defeats to opponents they had been expected to beat, but by the time Nadal went 0-3 and not winning a set at the Tour Finals in London he'd been back for more than three months.

The signs are worrying and if things continue in such a vein at the start of the forthcoming campaign, Nadal's ranking will soon slide.

I fear for his prospects at the Grand Slams where he will need to beat top-10ers on a regular, back-to-back basis. I like the look of the 2/1 on offer that Nadal fails to win one of the four majors in 2010.

Remember he's only ever won one hardcourt Slam, a victory which came during his golden spell at the top of the game in the wake of his Wimbledon 2008 success. The rest have all come on the clay and while he remains odds-on to win the French Open in 2010, I feel Nadal may find it harder to maintain his dirt dominance if he is struggling for results on the other surfaces.

In short, 2/1 on a Slam-less year looks too big.

Over/under season-end ranking

Many bookies are offering prices on players to finish higher or lower than a pre-determined ranking position and I feel they've got it wrong when it comes to Marin Cilic and David Nalbandian.

Let's start with Cilic. The Croatian was one of the success stories of 2009, climbing up to 14th in the world rankings. Many of you will remember his demolition of Andy Murray at the US Open - this guy has talent, that's for sure.

Followers of this column will have made tasty profits on Cilic over the past year and I'm going to try for a repeat by getting with him again. The best way to do this, in my opinion, is to back him to finish in the top 11 - as both Ladbrokes and Stan James have his over/under line at 11.5. That's a climb of just three places on his 2009 achievement and something he should certainly be capable of. Cilic only missed the top 11 by 440 points this season (not much at all in the scheme of things) and as the youngest member of the top 100, it's fair to conclude he is yet to peak.

I'm temped to back him at 15/8 (Sky Bet) to make the top eight and qualify for the season-ending Tour Finals, but I'm prepared to play safe and have a hefty bet on a top-11 spot instead.

Moving on to Nalbandian, I'm happy to oppose the Argentine this year. There's no doubt he's impressed on the tour in the past, but he missed the majority of 2009 with a hip injury which required surgery. He hasn't played since May and has already admitted he's unlikely to be anything near 100 per cent until March at the earliest.

Some of his recent comments are hardly confidence boosting. "I don't think I'll have problems with the short tournaments but the Grand Slams are two weeks," he said recently. "I start in Australia, which is not ideal but I feel like I can play."

His hip injury is comparable with the one from which former world number one Gustavo Kuerten never really recovered. Nalbandian will be 28 by the time the new season gets under way and even he admits it is hard to know what the future holds. "After surgery you never know how good you will be when return on court," Nalbandian added this month. "You feel good, but you don't know what will happen after three months of playing."

Certainly I feel he will struggle to fight his way into the top 18, especially given the youthful competitiveness towards the top of the game right now and it sounds like he will be playing catch up from the word go.

Back him to finish 19th or lower at 4/5 with Ladbrokes.