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TENNIS BETTING HEADLINES
Picture The contenders line up in London.

EXPECT CAPITAL GAINS FOR DJOKOVIC

By Andy Schooler

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
4pts Novak Djokovic to win the title at 11/4 (general). Has won 18 of last 19 matches, beating many of his London rivals in the process.
4pts Juan Martin Del Potro to lose every match at 3/1 (Stan James). Poor form and injury woes mean he's not the same player who won the US Open.
1pt Nikolay Davydenko to win Group B at 7/2 (Paddy Power). Value call in what could be a very competitive group.

The world's best tennis players are in London - not SW19 but SE10 - for the climax of the men's season, the ATP World Tour Finals.

The rebranded tournament - it was formerly the Masters Cup - takes place at a rebranded venue, the O2 Arena having previously been the Millennium Dome, on a specially-laid hardcourt, one expected to play similar to those in Shanghai 12 months ago.

But who will emerge victorious?

To answer that question, the format has to first be considered.

For those of you who don't know, the eight players gathered here are split into two groups for a opening round-robin stage with the top two in each progressing to next Saturday's semi-finals.

The group phase is good news for punters because it means plenty more markets are now available, rather than the simple outright.

One bet that stands out immediately is in Group A, which is where we will begin our rundown of the event.

This group involves four-time champion Roger Federer and home hope Andy Murray, with both men heavily odds on to reach the semi-finals. US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro and Fernando Verdasco make up the pool.

Those of you how saw Del Potro win the US Open in September cannot fail to have been impressed by the Argentine, but the fact is he's been all over the place since then.

Perhaps having realised the scale of his achievement, Del Potro duly lost his next match in Tokyo to the world number 189 and his tournaments since then in Shanghai and Paris have both ended in retirements with a variety of injuries taking their toll.

That's hardly ideal preparation for taking on the cream of the crop, while his record against his group opponents (2-10) does not ease concerns.

We therefore feel 'Delpo' is a good bet at 3/1 to lose all his group matches.

Stan James don't explain what happens if the Argentine quits without playing all three, although you'd imagine a refund.

While we can't see past Federer and Murray progressing from the first section, Group B looks likely to be more competitive.

It is made up of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko and Robin Soderling.

Clearly Nadal is the marquee name in this pool and he holds winning records against all three of his group rivals.

However, like Del Potro, we're prepared to oppose the Spaniard and here's why.

Since returning to the tour after the mid-season knee problems which caused him to miss Wimbledon, Nadal has won plenty of matches but has enjoyed very little success against players of this quality.

In fact he's won only one match against a top-10 ranked player since that August comeback (against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Paris).

He's suffered heavy defeats to Del Potro (twice), Marin Cilic and perhaps, more importantly, Djokovic (also twice). He's also lost to Davydenko, another of his opponents in London.

Nadal may well bounce back in 2010, but we simply don't feel he's a real contender this week.

Djokovic is the man the layers expect to win the group - some have him above Federer as their tournament favourite.

It's a fair call given that he is undoubtedly the form horse of the field.

Since the US Open he's won three of the four tournaments he's played, including the Paris Masters, racking up an 18-1 win-loss record in the process.

Nadal and Soderling (twice) have been beaten during that run, and so have Federer and Verdasco, both possible knockout-stage foes.

All in all, Djokovic looks a good bet for the title.

He won the event when it was held in Shanghai 12 months ago and clearly is in fine fettle.

He did look a little tired at times in Paris earlier this month, but the fact he pulled through to win there says everything about the mental state of his game right now.

It's in a good place and we're happy to back the Serb at 11/4.

If you want to get with Djokovic, certainly we'd advise backing him outright rather than in the group market.

He's just 11/8 to win Group B which looks too short given the top two both progress.

With Murray and Federer both likely tough opponents in the semis, there's not a massive incentive for Djokoivc to win the group and, in any case, we've already suggested this pool could be competitive which means there could easily be a three-way tie with three players on two wins apiece. If this is the case, the highest percentage of sets won is the deciding factor.

So instead the value call in the group betting appears to be last year's runner-up Davydenko, who for us is just too big at 7/2.

The Russian won the Shanghai Masters - the tournament to which the O2 court has already been compared - and also claimed the title in Kuala Lumpur during the Asian swing.

He beat both Nadal and Djokovic in Shanghai, while Soderling was among his victims in Malaysia.

Having beaten them all in the recent past must fill Davydenko with confidence. Given two wins could be enough to win this bet, we're happy to take apunt on him.

  • The action gets under way not before 1415 GMT on Sunday. Live coverage of all the matches is on Sky Sports in the UK.

  • Preview posted at 1635GMT on 20/11/2009


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