Dementieva has already won two titles this season.
DEMENTIEVA HAS EL OF A CHANCE
By Andy Schooler
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Rarely can a Grand Slam draw have been as wide open as the women's singles at this year's Australian Open.
Since Justine Henin departed the WTA Tour back in May, no-one has been able to take a firm hold of the world number one spot and the three subsequent Grand Slam titles have been won by three different players.
In uncertain times in the women's game, there's one way the bookies head - and that's towards the Williams sisters.
You can see why. After all, they have won 16 major titles between them.
Serena is a three-time winner here and showed in 2007 (when ranked a lowly 81st after a period on the sidelines) that match practice is far from essential for her to take on, and beat, the best.
In 2009 again she enters this event with few matches under her belt. In fact she has played just three tournaments since her US Open triumph in September, most recently in Sydney where she was soundly beaten by Elena Dementieva after been pushed to within a point of defeat in the previous round.
It seems she'll need all her renowned fighting spirit to lift the trophy for a fourth time.
Given both sisters are available at 7/2, Venus Williams looks the better bet.
She finished the 2008 in fine fashion, winning the season-ending Tour Championships in Doha in a field containing the best eight players of the year - and on a surface almost identical to this.
At both that event and Wimbledon she looked a frightening prospect and she appears to have carried her form into 2009.
Her sole warm-up event came at the World Team Challenge exhibition in Hong Kong where she crushed an admittedly under-the-weather Jelena Jankovic and also Vera Zvonareva.
The reason she's not the outright favourite is probably because she has never won in Melbourne - the final in 2003 was her best effort here.
However, it should be remembered that most of those tournaments were played on the 'sticky' Rebound Ace which has replaced last year by Plexicushion.
After a slowish start in 2008, it is expected the Plexichusion will speed up this year having now been worn in and the top smoothed down.
That will suit Williams down to the ground. Remember she is a five-time champion on the slick Wimbledon grass.
Venus doesn't look a bad bet, but unfortunately for us she's been drawn in the same quarter of the draw as our other fancy, Elena Dementieva.
The Russian is certainly the form player coming into the event, having chosen to play a full schedule in the opening fortnight of the 2009 WTA Tour.
It's paid dividends too. She will be brimming with confidence upon her arrival in Melbourne given she has captured titles in Auckland and Sydney.
With a 10-match winning streak behind her, Dementieva's price has shortened up but we feel there's still some value to be had in backing her at 8/1 in such an open field.
A couple of years ago you wouldn't have found us saying that. Her serve was notoriously shaky, her ability to deliver double faults in abundance second to none.
However, that changed in 2008 and with the serve vastly improved she enjoyed the best season of her career to date.
The Olympic gold medal was captured, while she also made the semi-finals at both Wimbledon and the US Open.
That decent form continues unabated so far in 2009. Auckland was won without dropping a set - so don't worry too much about her being too tired this fortnight - while Sydney brought wins over fellow top-10ers Agnieszka Radwanska, Serena (Williams won just four games) and Dinara Safina.
The biggest worry for Dementieva backers is that she is in the same half of the draw as both Williams sisters (she has a losing record against both) but we feel her excellent, established form is reason enough to side with her.
With the Williamses and Dementieva heavily weighting the bottom half, it makes sense for us to also look for a value pick in the top section of the draw.
World number one Jelena Jankovic and last year's runner-up Ana Ivanovic are the marquee names in this half but there are doubts hanging over both Serbs.
Jankovic has been ill in the run-up to the tournament and continues to be reminded of the fact that she has still to win at the highest level - reaching last year's US Open final remains her best Grand Slam effort. At 13/2 she looks short enough.
Ivanovic, meanwhile, has gone downhill since winning last year's French Open and from gaining the world number one spot with that victory she has now slipped to fifth on the ranking list after a miserable second half of 2008.
A disappointing start to this season means she should be left well alone.
Aside from those two Dinara Safina would appear to have the best chance of reaching the final.
Like her compatriot Dementieva, Safina raised her game to levels last season with a string of impressive results - French Open runner-up, Olympic silver medal, US Open semis - and she's started 2009 well enough, finishing runner-up in Sydney.
At 10/1, we wouldn't put people off backing her.
However, perhaps being a little greedy, we're going to choose 18-year-old Caroline Wozniacki as our value pick.
The Dane's march up the rankings - two years ago she was outside the top 200 - has made the tennis pundits sit up and take notice and big things are expected of her this season.
And we feel this could be the tournament in which she truly announces her name to the world.
With her powerful hitting and speed around the court, she looks exactly the sort of player who could tae Ivanovic out in the fourth round, while we doubt she'll fear Safina if they meet in the last eight.
Wozniacki certainly showed signs of her potential in Sydney this past week when she held match point against Serena Williams before succumbing in a final-set tie-break.
If she can push Williams all the way, then she can challenge all the big guns and, as already pointed out, she might not have to take on the main three title contenders until the final.
Take makes her the value each-way call in the top half. extrabet offer 22/1 but don't bet each way so we recommend you head to William Hill who go 20/1 with half the odds for a place in the final.
The action gets under way at 0001 GMT on Monday and is being televised live in the UK by British Eurosport and the BBC.
Preview posted at 1805GMT on 16/01/2009.
