Murray (left) lost out to Federer at last year's US Open.
FEDERER THE CLASS ACT
By Andy Schooler
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A Briton as favourite for a Grand Slam; just what has happened to tennis in recent months?
Change, that's what, but the question punters need to ask ahead of the Australian Open, which starts on Monday, is just how much have things changed?
It's certainly not hard to justify Murray's favouritism.
He got better and better in 2008, reaching his first Grand Slam final at the US Open, and has started this season in fine fettle.
At the Abu Dhabi exhibition event he beat both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal en route to the title and the following week added the Doha crown, beating Federer again in the last four before swiping Andy Roddick aside in the final.
It means Murray arrives at Melbourne Park on an eight-match winning streak, with a game well polished and well suited to the Plexicushion surface introduced at the event for the first time last year.
At the time it was generally viewed by the players as playing slower than expected. The theory 12 months down the line is that it will now be 'worn in' and play at the faster speed intended, with the 'sticky' Rebound Ace now long gone.
That will be to Murray's benefit but the one big doubt still surrounding the Briton is his ability to topple the very best over five sets.
He did so at the US Open, although his semi-final win over Nadal there took place over two days.
Some say this affected him in the final when Federer totally dominated him with a comfortable straight-sets win.
And it is Federer who we see as the biggest threat to Murray Down Under.
To some that will seem rather strange, for Murray now holds a 5-2 winning ATP Tour record over the Swiss, 6-2 if you include that exhibition win in Abu Dhabi.
However, it should certainly be pointed out that in Abu Dhabi in particular Federer was experimenting - plenty of serve-volley tactics were in evidence and yet he still only lost that match on a final-set tie-break.
In fact the vast majority of Federer-Murray clashes have been tight three-setters, but you can argue that the only time it really mattered (ie at a Grand Slam) Federer stepped up to the plate and delivered.
Federer's US Open triumph last summer really was an awesome answer to his critics.
For the first time in six years he arrived at Flushing Meadows without a Grand Slam title that season, but the former world number one saved two of his best performances of the year for the semi-finals and final.
First Novak Djokovic simply couldn't handle Federer and then Murray succumbed in the final after a lightning-fast start from the 'Fed Express'.
Victory in New York means he is now just one major title short of Pete Sampras' all-time record of 14 Grand Slam singles crowns. Three of those have come in Melbourne.
With this in mind, Federer admitted during the off-season that his focus will be totally on the four majors in 2009 and frankly there has been no player better in the last five years at producing their 'A' game at the big events.
Remember 12 months ago he was suffering from glandular fever when he lost to Djokovic in the semis here - some doctors said the ailment would affect him for the rest of the season - so it was perhaps no surprise that his 2008 wasn't as good as previous years.
Expect Federer to 'zone in' during the first week here, probably in preparation for a third-round clash with old enemy Marat Safin.
Rising star Marin Cilic will be no pushover should they meet in the last eight, and then a rematch with Djokovic could await in the semis.
However, given the defending champion's disappointing start to the year he's far from sure to be waiting there.
The Serb lost in the first round in Brisbane to Ernests Gublis and then bowed out in the semis in Sydney to Jarkko Nieminen.
On the other side of the draw, Murray is seeded to meet Nadal in the last four.
The Briton broke his duck against Nadal in New York last year and has since beaten him in Abu Dhabi.
Regular Bettingzone readers will already know our doubts about Nadal on the hardcourts and it's a theory we're still happy to stand by even though the Spaniard is now world number one.
Certainly his hardcourt results, and game as a whole, have improved, but the fact remains that he has still to reach a Grand Slam final on this surface.
Nadal was brutally outgunned by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the semi-finals here 12 months ago and Murray's victory over him at the US Open bore similar hallmarks. Essentially the bigger shotmakers stand more chance against him on this surface.
Fernando Gonzalez, who thrashed Nadal here two years ago, will fancy his chances of a fourth-round upset should they meet, while Gael Monfils, who has already beaten Nadal in Doha this year, is another who Nadal could have done with avoiding. They could square off in the last eight.
It is surely also relevant that the hardcourts are the ones which cause the most damage to Nadal's dodgy knees - tendinitis has been a regular problem for him, hence the tight strapping always in evidence below his kneecap.
We're happy to overlook him and Djokovic and plump for a Federer-Murray final - Victor Chandler and Paddy Power offer 7/2.
But as an outright bet it's Federer we like at the prices available. It's 11/4 each of two on best prices.
OK, Murray is certainly getting better and better, and Federer may well be past his awesome best now.
But it's the man with 13 major titles on his belt that we're happy to side with, not the one yet to break his duck.
And one final point.
Remember the UK layers are running scared of Murray. 'Patriotic punt on Murray could cost bookies millions' is just one press release we received while this preview was being written.
As a result his price is almost certainly lower than is should be.
A quick look at Australian prices (Centrebet) and you find Federer the favourite.
The action gets under way at 0001 GMT on Monday and is being televised live in the UK by British Eurosport and the BBC.Preview posted at 1530GMT on 16/01/2009.
