Moya - still a force to be reckoned with.
DON'T WRITE MOYA OFF YET
By Andy Schooler
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Our Andy Schooler runs through his best bets for the 2009 ATP Tour season.
Champions Race outright
All the bookies agree this is essentially a four-horse race between Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Nadal starts a worthy favourite given his achievements in 2008 - he won the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics and also made the semis of the other two Grand Slams.
Another year like that and the 6/5 currently on offer will look large, but it's not a bet we'd recommend. We've had long-standing fears about Nadal's longevity - history shows players with his chase-down-everything style are susceptible to burn-out. The fact that he's currently recovering from another knee problem (clearly an injury that needs to be managed - witness the heavy strapping in a bid to ease the effects of tendinitis) and you feel that sooner or later the Spaniard will have to endure a spell on the sidelines at a crucial time.
If that's in 2009, then Federer and Djokovic - currently separated by just 10 points in the rankings - look well placed to capitalise.
However, only one person has previously regained the number-one spot (Ivan Lendl) so Federer has history against him here and there's no doubt his aura of invincibility no longer exists, certainly among the top players. The Swiss can be backed at 3/1. It's not a bad price - time could tell us that Federer's 2008 comedown was indeed due to his pre-season glandular fever - but not one we're going to back.
Djokovic, an 11/2 shot, enjoyed a fine year in the majors, winning in Australia and making the semis in France and the US. Victory at the Masters Cup also helped prove he's a big-tournament player, but picking up ranking points in some of the smaller events will be crucial if the Serb is push on up the rankings.
Murray can be backed at 13/2, but despite a very impressive 2008 the scale of the task ahead of him to hit number one remains vast - he is almost 3,000 points adrift of Nadal's current tally. I'd want more than 13/2 for him to overcome his three rivals.
Essentially this market looks one to swerve and we'll save out cash for some much tastier-looking bets among the other markets on offer.
To win an ATP Tour title
A few firms have priced up how likely certain players are to win an ATP Tour title in 2009. Frankly we wouldn't put anyone off backing Nadal at 1/33 here (surely only injury will prevent this happening), but it's another Spaniard we feel offers some real value in this market.
Sky Bet offer 9/2 about Carlos Moya lifting a trophy at some stage during the year and that looks too big. He may now be 32 but the former world number one remains a decent tour pro, particularly on his favoured clay, and surely shouldn't be a 9/2 shot.
Since his breakthrough season back in 1995, Moya has won a title every year bar two. Admittedly one of those was last year but he went very close, losing the finals in Costa Do Sauipe and Bucharest.
Okay, Moya probably won't be challenging at the Grand Slams or the Masters Seres - renamed 1000 tournaments this season - but he's sure to feature in some of the lesser events such as those in Brazil and Romania.
Moya traditionally does well during the early-season clay swing in South America, while away from the red stuff he also has a proven record of starting the season well - Chennai being one his favourite events. Snap up this price before it disappears.
Season-long ranking match bets
Basically which of two players will finish the year the higher in the ATP rankings.
There are plenty of 'matches' priced up but our best bet here sees two of the tour's new breed go head-to-head, namely Marin Cilic and Ernests Gulbis.
Anyone who's read our 'players to watch in 2009' column on our sister site, sportinglife.com, will know I expect both players to climb the rankings over the next 12 months, yet Gulbis has an awful lot to do to overhaul his Croatian foe.
The 2008 season ended with Cilic ranked 23rd and Gulbis 53rd - a huge gap - yet Sky Bet are still prepared to offer 8/11 abut Cilic winning their personal battle in 2009.
Such a price makes you think that perhaps Gulbis missed a large part of last season but that wasn't the case.
We do feel he'll improve his ranking significantly in 2009 - anyone who saw his run to the French Open quarter-finals will know this guy has talent - but then we also feel the same about Cilic.
He made the last 16 at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year and has an attacking game to trouble some of the game's best. His big serve is also a potent weapon and we'd be surprised if he's not ranked inside the top 20 this time next year. That's something Gulbis will certainly do well to match so we're more than happy to grab the 8/11 on offer.
To finish in the top eight of the Champions Race
Always a popular market this and this year it's Andy Roddick we like the look of at odds-against.
The quote suggests the American star will miss out, but the fact is he's finished inside the top eight in each of the last six years. I suppose to be fair to Sky Bet with the 'big four' now on the scene Roddick isn't considered the force he once was and is effectively playing for one of four spots.
However, he's still very much near the top of the chasing pack and continues to collect minor titles and go deep in some of the bigger events. He's still only 26 but even if you feel he may be a little over the hill these days, it should be remembered Roddick's serve remains a serious weapon which on its own will win him plenty of matches during the year.
Sky Bet go 5/4 in their top-eight betting, so grab a slice now.
Top Briton (without Andy Murray)
Betfred are effectively betting on who will finish the year as Britain's number two and the 10/1 chalked up about Jamie Baker looks worth a punt.
Baker may well be down in 426th on the ATP list at present, but his year was ruined by a life-threatening blood virus which put him in intensive care for three days at one stage.
He has since returned to the circuit and will be keen to start afresh in the new year. Basically 2008 was something of a write-off for Baker but of more relevance to this bet is the Briton's form prior to his illness.
The Loughborough-based Scot climbed 80 ranking places in 2006 and another 101 the following year, hitting a career high of 211 in November. And 2008 had started well enough too, Baker qualifying for the Australian Open and then taking a set off world number 24 Ivo Karlovic.
His illness setback soon followed but we feel Baker will make a mockery of that 10/1 quote if he rediscovers his top form.
There's not a great deal to beat in this market - perennial flop Alex Bogdanovic is currently Britain's number two at 188 in the rankings - so it's worth a small bet.
The new ATP season gets under way on January 4.
Preview posted at 2100GMT on 22/12/2008.
