Lopez (right) can beat Del Potro.
SPAIN CAN PUT UP FINAL FIGHT
By Andy Schooler
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The loss of world number one Rafael Nadal from the Spain team due to injury has swung this weekend's Davis Cup final heavily in Argentina's favour.
It was 5/6 each of two just a few weeks ago, but Nadal's withdrawal due to a combination of a knee injury and fatigue means Argentina are now no better than 2/9 for the tie which is being played on an indoor hardcourt in Mar del Plata.
Yet while he will be thousands of miles away Nadal may yet offer the visitors a glimmer of hope.
The four-time French Open champion's dominance on clay over the past four years ensured Argentina chose a slick indoor court, rather then their usual clay venue of Parque Roca in Buenos Aires.
It may be a decision they are regretting a little given how things have unfolded.
While David Nalbandian and Juan Martin Del Potro are more than capable on either surface, Spain arrive with their only in-form player being Feliciano Lopez - a Spaniard who unusally prefers to come to the net behind his big serve. He will relish playing in these conditions, particularly after enjoying a good autumn indoor campaign.
With their other singles player, David Ferrer, woefully out of sorts (he lost the only two matches he played during the end-of-season indoor swing), a victory for Lopez in Friday's second rubber - against Del Potro - will be vital if Spain are to stand any chance of upsetting the odds.
And I fancy his chances at odds of 11/4.
By reaching the semi-finals in Vienna and Basel and the last eight in Madrid, Lopez has compiled a 10-5 win-loss indoors since the semi-finals of this event back in September.
His serve was been in good working order and should trouble Del Potro, who looked rather jaded at the season-ending Masters Cup where he bowed out in the group stages.
Admittedly he may have been holding something back for this final, but it is also known he's been struggling with a toe problem, while he's played an awful lot of tennis since Wimbledon and must be desperate for a break.
While Del Potro has won their two previous indoor meetings, Lopez triumphed in their only match of 2008 (in Miami) and for me shouldn't be priced up at 11/4.
There also looks to be some value in backing Nalbandian to ease to victory in that opening rubber against Ferrer, simply because the pair's form is hugely contrasting.
The Spaniard has won just six of his last 14 matches, whereas Nalbandian finished the year superbly.
He has palyed in three ATP finals indoor this autumn, winning in Stockholm and finishing runner-up in Basel and Paris. En route, he's racked up a 14-3 record.
With Nalbandian having also won the pair's only previous indoor clash, the only negative you can really suggest is that he may feel the weight of expectation in front of his home crowd.
However, the fact is he's only ever lost one Davis Cup singles match on home soil so the 11/8 about a straight-sets Nalbandian win seems more than fair.
Finally it may also be worth a speculative punt on the correct scoreline of the tie.
At last the layers have cottoned on to the fact that no-one wants to try to predict the outcome of 'dead' matches, so both Sky Bet and Sportingbet have priced up scorelines concerning only the live rubbers.
A 3-1 scoreline - which would mean Argentina claiming the cup in the fourth rubber - is the favourite at 15/8.
However, we feel there could be some value in 3-2 to the hosts.
If, as already predicted, Lopez can grab a win on Friday then Saturday's doubles will be huge.
At present that match is due to see Jose Acasuso and Agustin Calleri take on Lopez and Fernando Verdasco.
The key here is that Spain's pairing are regular partners on the tour - they made the last eight at the US Open this year - whereas the Argentines have only ever played together in four tournaments and never in Davis Cup play.
Admittedly Argentina may well bring in Nalbandian, particularly if he does indeed crush Ferrer on Friday, but even so the Spaniards will still fancy their chances.
And if they do pull that off and go into the final day 2-1 ahead, then 3-2 is very much on the cards.
Del Potro v Ferrer and Nalbandian v Lopez are the scheduled reverse singles matches and in both cases the Argentine players would start hot faovurtes.
It is a bit of a long shot, but we're prepared to back a 3-2 Argentina win to small stakes at 3/1.
The action gets under way at 1500 GMT on Friday and is being televised live in the UK by Sky Sports.
Preview posted at 1945GMT on 20/11/2008.
