Serena (right) won the French Open (Allsport).
FINAL IS ONE TO SWERVE
By Andy Schooler
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A match simply too close to call. |
On Saturday, for the third time in just ten months, the Williams sisters will go head-to-head in the final of a Grand Slam.
It is a far from ideal situation for punters, previous matches between the pair having been riddled with errors and neither sister playing to the best of their ability.
There have been suggestions that matches between the two have been pre-determined - something rubbished by Venus in her post-semi final press conference on Thursday.
"It's not true," she blasted. "I feel insulted by the suggestion. I give 100 per cent when I go out on court and so does Serena. That's what makes us professionals."
But doubtless the rumours have affected punters' willingness to plunge into their matches.
Indeed, William Hill issued a press release on Friday stating they had "no doubt at all" that the matches were played true and fair. They just might have been trying to drum up some business.
So who will win?
It's certainly hard to call.
Some of you may have already cashed in your winnings on an all-Williams final, a bet suggested here pre-tournament at 7/4.
In this case it's probably worth banking your winnings and saving them for another day.
Generally, the bookies rate Venus a 8/13 chance on Saturday with Serena 6/5.
Bet 365 will give you 6/4 Serena and it should be noted that tennis specialists Stan James make it a 4/6 v 11/10 clash, a price which seems more realistic.
Both players have deservedly reached the final and both were highly impressive in their semi-finals against Justine Henin and Amelie Mauresmo respectively.
Serena's victory saw her drop just three games against a player who had herself demolished Jennifer Capriati the day before.
As far as tactics are concerned, Venus, being a better volleyer, is likely to come forward more often, although the majority of the match will still be played from the baseline.
Even if the older sister is at the net often, Serena could well feed off that and pass her with the ruthless efficiency she did against Muaresmo.
It is those passing shots that will cause Venus the most concern. Serena undoubtedly poses a serious threat to oturight pick Venus, who is carrying many people's pre-tournament hopes at 5/4.
Backing Serena now looks the value call at 6/4, but perhaps a better suggestion would be a 2-0 margin which can be backed at 7/2 (general).
Only two of their previous eight matches (Venus leads 5-3) have gone the distance and the last of those came also three years ago.
Last year's US Open final saw Venus win 6-2 6-4, her only sticky moment coming in the final set when Serena briefly threatened a comeback.
The recent French Open final saw Serena win an error-riddled match 7-5 6-3, although Venus had made the better start.
In between those two came the semi-final in Miami - a comfortable 6-2 6-2 win for Serena.
Their only previous meeting on grass came here two years ago when Venus won their semi-final clash 6-2 7-6.
Although the value appears to lie with Serena, it is hard to be entirely confident about either player so closely are they matched.
But those previous encounters do suggest that the first set will be vital and that the winner of the opener will march on to victory.
Therefore a play on the spreads looks the best option. If you do want a bet, you can sell total games with IG at 23.
This would have reaped a profit in six of their eight past meetings, the make-ups having been (most recent last) 20, 18, 27, 25, 21, 18, 16 and 21.
If I had to recommend a bet, this would be it. But again it cannot be made with utter confidence.
A match between the world's top two players should always be tight and if it were not two sisters involved, the match would be expected to go all the way.
The sisters seem determined to shake off those fix rumours and it would be no surprise it they were to produce a classic of epic proportions - which would be a nightmare for total game sellers.
On this occasion, keeping the powder dry is recommended.
In the specials markets, Stan James can be trusted to come up with their fair share on these big-match occasions and they haven't disappointed this time.
But nothing takes the eye.
First service break is too dependent on the toss of a coin, while the fastest serve handicap (Serena gets +0.5mph, Venus -0.5mph) is very tight.
It's 5/6 the pair with that handicap. Venus' top serve of the fortnight is 119, while Serena's is 117, but we lost on a similar scale in the French Open final, so this is best left alone.
Another special with Stan James is the most double faults. Venus is slight favourite at 6/4, with Serena 13/8 and a tie 2/1.
Over the whole tournament Serena has served one more (eight) than Venus, but has also served slightly more games. Again this is one to swerve.
