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Goosen - hitting form at the right time. (Getty Images)

GOOSE AND FURYK CAN HUNT TIGER

By Dave Tindall

Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
2pts e.w. Retief Goosen at 40/1 (Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Second last year, hitting it further and third in ideal warm-up at BellSouth last week.
2pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 40/1 (Tote, Stanleybet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) Form figures of 2-5-4 show Furyk is one of the hot players and has good Augusta record.
8pts win Tiger Woods at 7/4 (Ladbrokes) Simply can't be left out. Augusta is made for him and a fourth green jacket beckons.

  • Prices recommended at 0815BST on 07/04/2003.

    Last year his big rivals crumbled at the finish.

    This year they're battered and bruised before they even get to the start line.

    So who can throw down a serious challenge to red-hot favourite Tiger Woods and deny him a record-breaking third successive green jacket?

    With golf betting such big business these days, punters have been plotting their strategies for the 67th US Masters since the start of the season.

    Firstly, Ernie Els was all the rage after his breathtaking start to the year. Then Vijay Singh was the subject of some shrewd money after his win at the Phoenix Open. And, most recently, after his stunning success at the Players Championship, Davis Love has been the big mover.

    One thing we learnt from last year's Masters was that whatever they seem to do to the course, the same names crop up time and time again.

    Last year was supposed to be a watershed with the lengthening of the course giving the big hitters an enormous advantage.

    But did it make much difference? Apparently not. Tiger won again, Singh and Els (the first two home two years earlier) chased him down the stretch and shortish hitting Augusta specialist Jose Maria Olazabal was fourth.

    This year the changes are minimal with only the fifth hole (20 yards have been added and the bunkers moved) undergoing any real renovation.

    And so the smart money says we should expect few real shocks.

    However, there could be a subtle changing of the guard this year.

    I have tipped Phil Mickelson for the green jacket every year since the Betting Zone started in 1997. But this year I simply cannot recommend him.

    You can't fault him for it but Mickelson's commitment to his wife and young family means he's inevitably taken his eye off the ball. His golf game has looked hit and miss all season and the fact that he's had a few good finishes is almost certainly down to natural talent.

    But innate gifts without the necessary graft are unlikely to be enough to see him wrestle away Tiger's crown. He looked shocking at the BellSouth Classic last week and when interviewed after his missed cut could offer few excuses.

    Another of my annual Augusta punts, David Duval, is surely another to avoid this year.

    Duval is a shadow of the player that knocked at the door four times in a row between 1998 and 2001 and I just can't see him pulling a rabbit from a hat this year and turning it round.

    Els and Singh present a different problem. Both have been hit by injury in their build-ups and add that to the mental scars from last year and you start to go off them.

    Both are fantastic performers and their Augusta records are excellent but Els at a single figure price can hardly be value when it still seems Tiger has his measure. And Vijay's injury woes seem greater than Ernie's so his bigger price seems justified.

    Davis Love comes very close to selection but the value has long since gone on the two-time Masters runner-up after his brilliant Players Championship win.

    Fred Couples described Love's closing 64 at Sawgrass as the best round of golf he'd ever seen. But the obvious riposte to that is how can we expect Love to hit such another such peak just two weeks later?

    It might not need that level of performance if Woods doesn't shine but the Players-Masters double remains a rare beast and Love has it all to do. My advice is wait until the British Open - the major Love wants most!

    So instead of dipping into the pool of annual contenders my headline tip this year is a player whose days as a top Masters performer have only just begun - South Africa's Retief Goosen.

    Sometimes it seems that the bookies don't quite believe Goosen's leap to elite status. But his record in the big events since winning the 2001 US Open compares favourably to most of his big-name peers:

    2001 - T15 Open, T10 NEC Invitational

    2002 - T14 Players Championship, 2nd US Masters, T8 Open, T11 NEC, 2nd American Express Championship, T9 Tour Championship.

    And, of course, in both those years he's also finished as the leading money earner in Europe.

    Goosen may not have stolen the headlines yet this year but his record is still remarkably good. In the US, he's finished in the top four in three of his five regular strokeplay events. And in Europe he's finished tied fourth and tied second in his two starts.

    In other words Goosen has rewarded each-way backers in five of his seven strokeplay starts - a staggering 71% strike rate!

    After three flops, Goosen will feel comfortable at Augusta now after his second place behind Woods last year. And I believe his game is even more suited to the course this time.

    In 2002, Goose was only 105th on the US Tour's driving distance stats, measuring in at a rather moderate 279.8. But this year he's jumped up to sixth and is hitting it 300 yards plus.

    Those extra 20 yards are a huge boost at Augusta and even more so given the torrential rain that's fallen over the last couple of days.

    Now for the bad news. We recommended a punt on Goosen at 40/1 early on Monday morning after his fine tied third place finish in the BellSouth Classic.

    Since then his price has been cut across the board although, for all the reasons above, I still think he is a cracking each-way bet at 30/1 with Pinnacle.

    In contrast to Goosen, our second tip had a bad time of it last year but a solid Masters record before then.

    Jim Furyk is not your obvious big-hitting Augusta type but it's hard to argue with his 1998-2001 record of 6-14-14-4.

    That fourth place in 1998 was closer than many of you may remember. Furyk bogeyed the par five 15th and also left a 25 foot putt on the last hole just two inches short. It's hardly surprising that he was so deflated after finishing just two shots behind winner Mark O'Meara.

    Furyk's favourite Masters moment is the time he handed his putter to his mother during the par three tournament and she nailed a 10-footer, producing the loudest roar of the day.

    But the gritty grinder from Pennsylvania will want to get an ovation like that of his own. He is certainly capable of it.

    Furyk's forgivable missed cut last year came at a time when he was suffering dizzy spells. This year he seems to have everything under control and is playing his best golf in several years.

    In his last three starts he's finished second, after a play-off loss, at Doral, fifth in the Honda Classic and, most recently, an excellent tied fourth in the Players Championship.

    One big pointer to his chances at Augusta this year is his first place in the greens in regulation standings.

    Hitting accurate approach shots is crucial at Augusta and, contrary to perceived wisdom, past evidence says it's the best iron players rather than the best putters that flourish.

    In four of the last six years, the winner has hit the most greens. Only once in that time has the winner taken the fewest putts.

    However, it's still reassuring to know that Furyk can putt these greens as well. In a list of best putting performances (in terms of fewest putts) over the last six Masters, Furyk's name appears three times!

    The one doubt could be his length off the tee. However, he's hitting it further than he ever has in 2003 and his average of 278.5 is just a yard shorter than Goosen's was last year. Goosen, as we know, came second so I think Furyk can handle Augusta's added length.

    Again Furyk has been clipped from his recommended 40/1 but there's plenty of 33/1 still going and that's a more than acceptable price for an in-form player who once took Tiger to a seventh extra play-off hole at the NEC. Furyk is like a dog with a bone when he gets in contention so he carries plenty of confidence.

    The European challenge will almost certainly be headed by Irish duo Padraig Harrington and Darren Clarke. Both have an outside chance but I would prefer to play them on the top European market where the challenge looks thin.

    I'm not keen on Mike Weir or David Toms. Weir, who has two wins to his name in 2003, seems to have lost some of his edge since the Tour moved away from the west coast and his Masters record (three finishes in the mid 20s) suggests his chance are limited. Toms' Augusta accomplishments basically amount to one good round in 1998 and his form doesn't look good enough.

    I much prefer the chances of several players at more extreme edges of the age scale.

    Firstly, young guns Charles Howell and Adam Scott.

    Howell, the local boy, is a big favourite of mine and loves the Masters so much he once said he might even retire if he won it! He made a promising first appearance last year and as long as he doesn't get too over-excited should go even better this time.

    Scott, almost unnoticed, finished ninth last year and admits he loves the course. He gave Woods a real run for his money in the semi-finals of the Accenture Match Play and produced another good performance at the Players Championship.

    But in both cases it might just be a year too soon for them to really challenge. I shall talk about them more in my spreads preview.

    The two oldies I like are Fred Couples and Jay Haas.

    Couples, the champion in 1992, has never missed a Masters cut in 18 visits and, remarkably, his tied 36th last year was his worst finish.

    His form going into this year's event is the best it's been in three or four years and he has an each-way chance. However, despite that run of good finishes, he's only ever made the top five four times. That suggests he's a better finishing positions sell than each-way bet.

    Haas is another 40-something enjoying a new lease of life and, like Couples, loves Augusta. He's had five top seven finishes, missed just one cut in 18 starts since 1978, and actually led the tournament during round three as recently as 1998. Haas fell away after dumping his tee shot in the water on 12 but still managed to outscore his playing partner that day - a certain Tiger Woods!

    There's already a green jacket in the Haas family after Jay's uncle, Bob Goalby, won the 1968 Masters. That was one of the most controversial tournaments in history after Roberto DiVicenzo, who was due to play Goalby in a play-off, was disqualified for signing a wrong scorecard.

    "What a stupid I am," said DiVicenzo later and that's how I would feel if Tiger Woods wins this week and I haven't tipped him.

    Jack Nicklaus' claim that Woods would win "more green jackets than Arnold (Palmer) and I combined", looks more realistic by the year.

    Woods needs to win eight more to pull it off but three wins in the last six years is overwhelming evidence of Tiger's domination and that 50% strike rate suggests he should be even money!

    Yes, I'm clutching at straws a bit when trying to justify that 7/4 (6/4 now) is any sort of value. But I think a staking plan that produces a profit if Tiger triumphs, and still has the potential to secure a big win if the other two tips come good, is a valid one.

    There's not much more that needs to be said about Tiger to be honest. He's the best player in the field, the psychological edge he has over his rivals grew last year and winning a tournament three times in a row is not exactly new to a player who has just won his fourth successive Bay Hill title.

    I'm confident he will have sorted out the errors that crept into his game at Sawgrass two weeks ago and, as we'll probably be saying for years to come, he is the one they all have to beat.


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    ODDS COMPARISON SERVICE
    TODAY'S BETS
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    2pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
    1.5pts e.w. Adam Scott at 35/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).
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