Bob Estes - can take victory. (Getty Images)

By Dave Tindall

Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	2pts e.w. Bob Estes at 40/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)	T6 on only start this season and has ideal attributes to improve on T5 here last year.
	1pt e.w. Kevin Sutherland at 66/1 (Bet365, Blue Sq, Sp Odds 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)	Great record in this tournament, in decent form and keen to protect world ranking.
	1pt e.w. Phil Tataurangi at 66/1 (Ladbrokes, Stan James 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)	Tied seventh last week, greens in regulation leader and T18 at this course last year.
	2pts win Chris Riley at 28/1 (Coral)	Local player with impressive course form. Putting prowess gives him winning chance.

Tiger is released back onto the US Tour at this week's Buick Invitational in California but will it be with a roar or a whimper?

Woods underwent knee surgery on December 12 and although his rehabilitation was slower than he hoped, we have to presume that Tiger feels he is ready.

I'm not really into the theory that he's coming back as Buick are one of his sponsors. Do you honestly think they'd drop him if Woods didn't want to play.

Basically Tiger's performance is one big guessing game. There has to be an element of rust, especially with his short game, but if anyone can come back and win straight away it's Tiger.

And what of Mark O'Meara's comments that his mate isn't 100%. Could be true, could be O'Meara trying to play things down.

The bottom line is that there will be better chances to back Tiger down the line. Yes, if he wins here we won't see 100/30 in a regular tournament for a long while but I think I can live with that.

Tiger is helped by playing the easier North Course in his first round and if he posts a good score he can approach the next three rounds at the South Course with confidence.

The South Course played much the harder of the two last year after undergoing major changes from architect Rees Jones.

And the fact that it's bidding to become a future US Open venue should give us a clue about what's required this week.

The last public course to become a US Open venue was Bethpage Black last year so that could bode well for the chances of the first two home - Woods and Phil Mickelson.

And given the recent prickly exchanges between the two in the US media, it would be fascinating to seem them go head-to-head down the stretch.

Their past records suggest it's possible. Woods won in 1999 and hasn't been outside the top five in four other visits at Torrey Pines. And Mickelson is a three-time winner here, which includes back-to-back triumphs in 2000 and 2001.

But the chances of an epic showdown decrease when we take into account how they responded to last year's course changes. Mickelson, who said he found the South unrecognisable from recent years, missed the cut and Tiger, although fifth, was never in contention after a second round 77.

Add in the fitness/sharpness doubts about Woods and Mickelson's less than spectacular start to the season and I'll take my chances elsewhere.

The statistics from last year suggest that iron play is a key ingredient. The large majority of the leading finishers were top 25 in the greens in regulation stats and you'd expect that on a tough course.

Ironically our number one pick this week, Bob Estes, isn't listed in the G.I.R. rankings but that's due to his light early-season schedule which means he hasn't played enough rounds to qualify.

But in his only outing so far, a fifth place in the Mercedes, Estes topped the greens stats after hitting a massive 68 out of 72.

Estes also occupied fifth place here last year and that was a fine performance after he opened with a 75.

Viewed as a second-string player in the early part of his career, the Texan has really stepped it up in the last few seasons with two wins in 2001 and another last year.

And a quote of 40/1 at a tournament he likes (fifth on the new layout last year, T6 in 1994 and T11 in 1999) is pretty decent.

It may also help Estes that he hasn't been dragged through the tedium of back-to-back celebrity events. You could say that about Woods of course but the length of Tiger's lay-off suggests rust might outway freshness.

Although our next pick has been active in recent weeks, Kevin Sutherland has such a good record in this tournament that he can't be ignored.

Sutherland finished 3-4-5-13 in a four-year spell between 1998 and 2001 and although last year's tied 44th suggests the course changes hurt him I think normal service will be resumed this week.

Why? Again we return to the G.I.R stats. Sutherland has always been a good iron player and is sixth in greens hit this year (81.3%).

Helped by plonking the ball on the green on a regular basis, Sutherland has already carved out two top 15 finishes in 2003 so I think he can improve on that at one of his favourite courses.

Local players have traditionally excelled here and as a native Californian Sutherland fits the bill.

And one final point, Sutherland will also be desperately keen to defend his World Match Play title later this month and to do that he needs to maintain his place in the top 64 of the world rankings. He is currently 62nd and next week is the cut off point so he has plenty of incentive here.

All told, the 66/1 looks good so head to the bookies who pay to five places.

The current greens in regulation leader Phil Tataurangi could also be worth a shout at that same 66/1 - and at 64th in the world rankings he too needs to protect his World Match Play place.

In two starts this season, the Kiwi has finished tied 17th at the Mercedes and tied seventh at Pebble Beach last week.

Last year he followed a fifth-placed finish at Pebble by finishing tied 18th here so he obviously likes the early-season West Coast swing.

The worry is his driving accuracy which has again slipped below 150th this year, although given those stats, he must be remarkably good at recovery shots to hit that many greens!

In last year's running he was in the top 20 for driving accuracy which is more encouraging and although his previous course form isn't great it's fairly safe to ignore that as he is a much improved player these days.

As for the rest, there don't seem any obvious reasons to back either Vijay Singh or David Toms at their prices. Rocco Mediate's course record is hopeless, Charles Howell looks flat while Stuart Appleby has spent the last week flying to Australia and back.

Native San Diegan Chris Riley has better claims on his decent displays this year (T6-T7-T37) and impressive course form (two top tens and a top 20 in the last four years).

I won't pull the wool over anyone's eyes and try and argue that he is any sort of value at 28/1.

But he is certainly a potential winner in a week when the first prize could be up for grabs and his prowess with the putter could just hold the key.

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