Mastercraftsman - soild credentials.
BANK ON IRISH DUO IN GUINEAS
By Ben Linfoot
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The 2009 Classic markets really start to take shape post-Aintree as attention turns to the Flat.
The Stan James 2000 Guineas has two trials coming up, the Craven and Greenham, but they only have a small effect on the market these days as it has become the norm for the winner to arrive at Newmarket a fresh horse.
Aidan O'Brien has become the master at priming his three-year-old colts for the occasion and has trained the winner four times in the last seven years, all four arriving at HQ without a previous run that campaign.
Predictably he trains the ante-post market leader for this year's renewal, Mastercraftsman, and he is a worthy favourite on the formbook.
A winner of the Railway Stakes, Phoenix Stakes and National Stakes at the Curragh last season, his two-year-old campaign is almost a mirror image of George Washington's and we all know what he did at Newmarket in 2006.
The only blot on Mastercraftsman's juvenile record came at Longchamp in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere last October, when he was beaten into fourth by the Freddie Head-trained Naaqoos.
Naaqoos is 7/1 in the 2000 Guineas betting with the O'Brien horse 5/1 and I find it hard to argue with this price difference despite the former beating the Ballydoyle inmate fair and square last autumn.
Mastercraftsman had a really tough race just three weeks before Longchamp when winning the National Stakes at the Curragh in heavy ground from Shaweel and Arazan, and that could have taken its toll.
I'm happy to put a line through his Longchamp run and if you do you get an unbeaten dual-Group One winner proven on fast and heavy ground, who has shown willingness in a battle and who possesses plenty of class.
Visually he looks like a miler, on breeding it should be right up his street and as I expect him to line up at Newmarket without a prep run he's a pretty low risk ante-post bet who will be shorter on the day.
Officially rated at 121, he was Europe's top two-year-old in 2008, and as I am about to explain there are plenty of reasons to doubt the credentials of those around him at the top of the ante-post market.
Even though we could've taken 10/1 about him at Christmas, he could be sent off at more than half the price he is now come May 2 and at 5/1 we'll happily have a play on the favourite.
Three of his rivals at the top of the betting that I am keen to take on are Crowded House, Evasive and Rip Van Winkle, who are all priced up at around 7/1 to 8/1 at the time of writing.
Crowded House was rated 120 as a two-year-old thanks to his ugly but decisive win in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster when he beat Jukebox Jury by three and a half lengths.
I say ugly because he swerved and hung left once hitting the front, but that doesn't take the gloss off what was certainly the most impressive juvenile performance by any colt in England last season.
Despite the speed he showed that day he struck me as a middle-distance type for this season, and his breeding does nothing to dissuade that view.
His sire Rainbow Quest is a strong influence of stamina, and though he is out of the Woodman mare Wiener Wald I suspect the Derby trip could be more to his liking than the mile at Newmarket.
It could be that 10 furlongs will be his optimum distance, but I would be surprised if it were a mile so at 7/1, for me, he makes little appeal.
Of course, the doubts over his participation in the race make him an even riskier bet at this stage, as connections could bypass the 2000 Guineas and aim him at the Dante Stakes at York in preparation for Epsom.
Evasive is another American bred colt, by Elusive Quality out of a Storm Cat mare, and he should thrive at around a mile in his three-year-old season.
He's sure to enjoy fast ground and he won his maiden on the Rowley Mile.
After just three runs, two of which were victories, he remains open to plenty of improvement.
The problem is he needs to improve, a lot. Rated at just 108 as a two-year-old there are plenty of rivals ahead of him in the classifications, but just two ahead of him in the betting.
He'd be an interesting outsider at 25/1 but at 8s it looks like any value there might have been has long gone and I couldn't put him up purely on a value basis - especially as he now goes straight to the race following a setback.
Rip Van Winkle was the ante-post favourite for the Guineas before the Dewhurst and even after his seventh-placed finish in that race, but has drifted in recent weeks after it was revealed he was behind in his work following an over-reach.
He looked a colt of some potential after accounting for Cuis Ghaire in the Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown but then disappointed when sent off 6/4 favourite for the Dewhurst.
That race is usually the defining two-year-old race of the season, but it wasn't last year, a point emphasised by the fact Europe's top two-year-old Mastercraftsman didn't take part.
Jim Bolger's Intense Focus prevailed in a three-way photo, with Lord Shanakill and Finjaan narrowly beaten into the second and third respectively.
Two lengths covered the first seven home, and what was a substandard renewal on paper proved to be just that in reality.
It isn't surprising then that the first three home are available at 33/1 and bigger for the Guineas. Intense Focus is an admirable sort, gutsy like his sire Giant's Causeway, as his Dewhurst victory showed.
But his limitations were exposed even as a two-year-old as he won just twice in nine starts, and he was beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown last month.
Lord Shanakill and Finjaan are good horses, but both could develop into sprinters, while Dewhurst fourth Shaweel is in the Intense Focus bracket - brave, but not good enough.
The next three home in the Dewhurst - Delegator, Ashram and Rip Van Winkle - could be the three to take out of the race.
Delegator and Ashram are both available at 33/1, with Rip Van Winkle 9s.
That brings me back to the O'Brien horse, who I couldn't have on value grounds, as he has plenty to prove both on the formbook and following his winter setback. By Galileo, he could still develop into Ballydoyle's number one Derby contender.
Ashram has gone to Godolphin, and he and Delegator are both interesting, but the problem I have with all three is that they were beaten in a Dewhurst that at the time, and on reflection, didn't look like it contained a Guineas winner.
With that in mind let's look at last year's two-year-old races that might contain the answers to the 2000 Guineas, the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and the National Stakes.
The common denominator here is main bet Mastercraftsman, but I think it's worth adding another to the portfolio and I'll side with Arazan over Naaqoos.
I do like Naaqoos and though he hasn't raced on ground faster than good to soft, his sire Oasis Dream was a speed merchant and he could well thrive if we have fast conditions in May.
At 7/1 I can see why he will attract interest but my problem is I don't trust the form of the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere when he beat Milanais, Intense Focus and Mastercraftsman.
I've already reasoned why I think Mastercraftsman didn't give his true running that day and why Intense Focus' credentials are flawed, while Milanais was beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Saint-Cloud last month.
Arazan, however, is an exciting prospect who looks overpriced at 14/1.
John Oxx's colt won his maiden on fast ground at Leopardstown last May, before landing the Group Two Futurity Stakes on heavy at the Curragh in August.
That performance influenced punters to back him into odds-on favouritism for the National Stakes, but although he looked a world beater on heavy ground in the Futurity it was perhaps his undoing against a rival with the class of Mastercraftsman, who edged out the battling Shaweel by a short head.
Arazan was not disgraced beaten two and a half lengths in third, and after just the third start of his life he was put away with his three-year-old career in mind.
His facile Group Two win marked him out as a classy horse and given his light campaign at two he looks the sort of unexposed type who could give Mastercraftsman most to do at Newmarket in May.
He's another all-American bred, by Anabaa out of the Lear Fan mare Asmara. Oxx is concerned he won't go on very fast ground, but his pedigree suggests he will.
His half-brother Azamour liked it fast, while the best of Anabaa's progeny (most famously Goldikova) also have no problems on firm ground.
Arazan should be best at mile and he might get further. He's classy, unexposed and on his National Stakes running, when beaten just two and a half lengths by Mastercraftsman, he's also good value at 14/1.
Preview posted at 0915BST on 07/04/2009.
