Ogilvy - can win again.

By Dave Tindall

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BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	2.5pts e.w. Geoff Ogilvy at 20/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6).	Has perfect game and temperament for a US Open - as he showed at nearby Winged Foot in 2006.
	2pts e.w. Paul Casey at 25/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6).	In the form of his life with three wins this year and has done enough in past majors to suggest he can win one.
	1pt e.w. Robert Allenby at 90/1 (Boylesports, Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6).	Very solid US Open record, good form in New York and fourth last week.
	1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 125/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6).	Bubba Watson placed at Oakmont and this massive hitter could also prove that distance trumps accuracy.

It's the US Open - so we're looking for short, straight hitters right?

Wrong!

It's become a source of frustration with me that this identikit of a potential US Open winner is blithely trotted out without any real analysis of the facts - especially since the course set-up was handed to Mike Davis in 2006.

Davis introduced the idea of graduated rough - the bigger the error off the tee the greater the punishment but less wayward shots still give players the chance to go for the green - and decided that trying to stifle the world's best golfers into submission didn't make for great viewing.

"We want to let players show their shotmaking ability," says Davis. "We used to not want to be flexible in the teeing grounds we used, but now there's a concerted effort to give the players a different look every day. We want them out on the course having to think right then and there. They used to know from practice rounds exactly how everything was going to be."

So instead of looking for robotic 'fairways and greens' golfers, there is now much more emphasis on trying to locate those with a bit of magic in their hands and a creative streak in their heads.

And it's worked.

The three winners since Davis took over are Geoff Ogilvy, Angel Cabrera and Tiger Woods.

To instantly crush the idea of straight hitting being a greater asset than long hitting, look at how these three fared on the respective Driving Accuracy (DA) and Driving Distance (DD) stats in the years of their victories.

They were:

2006: Ogilvy (DA 119th, DD 53rd)
2007 Cabrera (DA 192nd, DD 8th)
2008 Woods (DA 169th, DD 44th)

True, it's a small sample and they obviously hit the ball pretty well the week of their win but if you want to rake through the stats pre-tournament, the message is clear: don't be put off one little bit if your pick is way down the Driving Accuracy stats.

So, to get down to business, where should our money go?

Well, I would certainly start by looking closely at that trio because all three could easily go in again.

Tiger is the man most likely to win of course but his odds about landing a 15th major title are severely cramped and I'm not interested in playing him at under 2/1 having won on Woods at 16/5 in a regular Tour event last time.

But, at 20/1, Ogilvy, definitely gets the nod.

The Aussie just ticks so many boxes.

His high ball-flight is perfect for US Open conditions, he has the perfect temperament - just look at the way he glides round the course without changing expression - and he putts beautifully (he's ranked second on the 2009 US Tour stats).

Ogilvy, 36th in Driving Distance but 150th in Driving Accuracy (remember, not a problem!), also shines bright in numerous other statistical categories

The two which tell the story quickest are that he's top of the US Money List and is ranked first in Birdie Average.

The Aussie also has one other huge advantage; he's a previous US Open champion so knows how to get the job done.

This is a tournament that throws up plenty of repeat winners - Els (1994 and 1997), Goosen (2001 and 2004), Tiger (2000, 2002, 2008) - and, as with the South African duo, a second win for Ogilvy this week would come three years after his first.

It also shouldn't be lost on us that his 2006 victory came at nearby Winged Foot (also designed by A.W. Tillinghast) while he was also tied sixth in the 2005 USPGA at Baltusrol - another Tillinghast course.

If we're looking to get Tiger beaten, in my view there is no better candidate than Ogilvy.

Last year Tiger went into the £4million WGC-CA Championship in Miami on a seven-tournament winning streak. No-one had beaten him in seven months and Doral was a course where he'd won on his previous three visits.

It seemed another Tiger win was a formality but Ogivly kept his cool, parred the final nine holes and held on for a wire-to-wire victory.

With three victories in his last 14 starts, the 32-year-old Aussie is a regular winner these days and he threw in a stunning 63 at Memorial on his last start when warming up for Bethpage with a tidy top 10 finish.

With several firms paying six places, Ogilvy is a cracking each-way bet at 20/1.

The other player I am extremely keen to get with is Paul Casey.

The Englishman is enjoying a career year and is now up to three in the world rankings; something to bear in mind if you look at his odds of 25/1 and think they're a little short.

Casey has had a stellar 2009, kicking it off with a victory in his opening event in Abu Dhabi, bagging a breakthrough first win on the US Tour in the Houston Open the week before the Masters and then pocketing first prize in the European Tour's flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth - a venue where several other US Open champs (Els, Cabrera) have triumphed.

It's almost an afterthought that he was also the beaten finalist to Ogilvy in the WGC Accenture Match Play in Arizona.

Next on Casey's list of conquests must be a major and, unlike in the past, now he looks ready to strike.

In truth, he's been building a solid platform for several years. Although a tied sixth on debut at Augusta in 2004 suggested he would land a big one early in his career, Casey has instead taken several years to find his feet.

However, since the start of 2007 he's made nine successive cuts in majors, recording five top 20s.

Two of those (10th at Oakmont, 15th at Winged Foot) have come in the Mike Davis era so clearly he can thrive in modern US Open conditions.

Indeed, two years ago at Oakmont he went from 107th after round one to seventh at halfway, just three shots back, after a second round 66 and was applauded off the course by several colleagues. It came on a day when Padraig Harrington had shot an 81 and Adam Scott an 82.

The Englishman's long, straight driving, strength to move the ball from gnarly rough (take a look at Casey's forearms) and solid putting stroke look an excellent fit so it's no wonder that his coach, Peter Kostis, says: "Bethpage suits him perfectly.''

When someone like Johnny Miller reckons Casey has played better golf than anyone in 2009 it's worth listening too.

Get stuck into the 25/1 - again with six payout places.

In all honesty, I could easily not write another word. I fancy Ogilvy and Casey head and shoulders above anyone else (except Tiger of course) and am sorely tempted to have a bigger than normal stake on each.

However, to beef up the team a little I will throw in a couple at big prices.

I can't believe I've been duped into backing the first as he's let punters down so many times.

But if you think of the 90/1 (with six places) just in terms of the each-way element then Robert Allenby appears to have plenty going for him.

He's made the top 18 in four of his last seven US Opens, including a 12th at Bethpage in 2002 when he was fifth going into the final round. He's also finished seventh (Shinnecock 2004) and 16th (Winged Foot) in other recent US Opens held in New York.

And on his last trip to the Big Apple he was runner-up in the Turning Stone Resort Championship.

Allenby, who was 18th at Torrey Pines in last year's US Open, heads to Bethpage with a fourth place in the St Jude Classic under his belt.

It may well be his usual trick of flattering to deceive before a major but we need to remember that he's 90/1 not 40s or 50s and that he fits the profile of recent US Open winners - an obviously talented southern hemisphere player who gives it a good welly off the tee (30th in Driving Distance).

Watching him putt could well drive you mad but his problems with the flatstick aren't highlighted as much in a US Open so give him a go.

My second outsider is Dustin Johnson.

Yes, he may be a bit young and a bit silly for a US Open winner but he is a good guinea pig for my theory that distance off the tee trumps accuracy in this event.

Johnson bombs it an average of 307.9 yards off the tee, has topped the DD stats in each of his last three starts - 14th Memorial, 4th Byron Nelson, 24th Texas Open - and is already a winner this year (at Pebble Beach).

Looking at his stats, he's third in Driving Distance compared to 161st in Driving Accuracy while he's also ninth in Greens In Regulation, 26th in Putting Average, 2nd in Birdie Average, 1st in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 6th on the All-Around Ranking. In short, this boy's got game.

Add in the fact that the 6ft 4in 24-year-old won at Turning Stone last year on his only US Tour start in New York and he could be a dark horse at 125/1.

Montser-hitting Bubba Watson defied conventional US Open wisdom when finishing fifth at Oakmont two years ago and Johnson, a much better all-round player, can maybe do the same.

I did seriously consider Phil Mickelson given his amazing record in US Opens (four times a runner-up) and liking for New York and Tillinghast designs but the worries and lack of practice time caused by his wife's battle with cancer isperhaps too big a hurdle.

Sean O'Hair was also close to the staking plan but his wife is pregnant and he reckons there's a good chance he'll have to walk off the course.

Feel free to back those two at 16s and 50s but if Tiger shows some vulnerability it's Ogilvy and Casey who look best equipped to pounce.