Chabal - comes in at lock for France.

By David Gee

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	5.5pts Ireland (+2) to beat South Africa at 10/11 (general) .	The exciting Sexton can inspire a famous victory.
	2.5pts Wales to beat Australia at 11/10 (VC Bet, Extrabet).	Australia worth opposing with in-form Welsh.
	1pt France and New Zealand to draw at 20/1 (Paddy Power).	Looks a very tight one to call and draw is overpriced.

Italy v Samoa

Neither of these sides have posted a victory in the past few weeks so a win here would be most welcome. The Azzurri haven't won since June 2008 when they recorded a narrow 13-12 success over Argentina so they will be especially keen to come away from Ascoli with a win. Nick Mallett had planned to name the same team that faced the All Blacks a fortnight ago but Italy have been rocked by the news that skipper Sergio Parisse has sustained a knee ligament injury that could mean he misses six months worth of rugby which would surely rule him out of the Six Nations. Flanker Mauro Bergamasco, center Gonzalo Canale, scrum-half Tito Tebaldi and wing Kaine Robertson return having been left out of the starting line-up for the 32-10 loss to South Africa in Udine last Saturday. In the front row Leonardo Ghiraldini takes over at hooker between prop forwards Martin Castrogiovanni and Salvatore Perugini. It was in the scrum that Italy impressed against the Springboks and All Blacks and it is here where they will look to have the upper hand against the Samoans. France ran seven tries past Samoa last Saturday as they cruised to a 43-5 victory at the Stade de France so it will be a retrieval mission this weekend for the Pacific Islanders. It's difficult to know how the Azzurri will react to news of Parisse's injury as he is such a talisman for them. They are very tough to deal with in the scrum and although this game won't be the prettiest you'll see this weekend, Italy should still have enough to win it.

Verdict: Italy by 7

Ireland v South Africa

Irish coach Declan Kidney may have scoffed at suggestions that South Africa may be a team in decline this week but results have not gone their way of late and it could just be that they are a little jaded rather than in any sort of irreversible slump. However, whilst Ireland will show their opponents plenty of respect, they know that they will never have another chance like this to beat the Springboks. South Africa ran out the eventual winners against Italy in Udinese last weekend but it was rather a laboured performance from the World Cup winners and they know more is needed against the Irish on Saturday. Jonathan Sexton will start at fly-half this weekend after being preferred ahead of Ronan O'Gara. In a surprise move by Kidney, Sexton has seized the number 10 jersey from O'Gara as reward for his outstanding display in Saturday's 41-6 victory over Fiji. The last time O'Gara was dropped was in 2003 and the Lions veteran has had a stranglehold on the position ever since. But the composure shown by Sexton in dismantling Fiji on his Test debut has convinced Kidney he is ready to face the Tri-Nations champions. Other than that, Kidney has kept faith with the XV that drew 20-20 with Australia in Ireland's autumn opener with Keith Earls replacing knee injury victim Luke Fitzgerald on the left wing. As expected Springbok skipper John Smit has been shifted back to hooker this weekend and South Africa's team features six changes as BJ Botha starts at tighthead and Wynand Olivier replaces the injured Adi Jacobs at inside centre. Danie Rossouw moves from flank to number eight with Schalk Burger starting at blindside. Tendai Mtawarira returns to the starting XV in place of Wian du Preez whilst Victor Matfield returns to the second row, replacing Andries Bekker. It's virtually impossible to back the 'Boks with any confidence at the moment but some firms still have them as favourites and hence Ireland are begging to be backed getting 2 from their rivals. They've not exactly shone so far this autumn but Kidney has been bold and picked Sexton and this could be the master-stroke as O'Gara has been looking a little slow and cumbersome of late. Sexton's performance will be crucial and if he plays as he's played for Leinster in recent months, then the Irish should be celebrating a famous victory on Saturday evening.

Verdict: Ireland by 3.

Scotland v Argentina

Scotland recorded a famous victory over Australia last weekend and whilst they were right to celebrate it, coach Andy Robinson knows that the hard work isn't over for his side and they need to put a run together before they know they have turned a corner. Hence, Robinson has drafted in three players to his starting XV, handing a debut to Edinburgh flanker Alan MacDonald, as well as recalling Ben Cairns and Thom Evans. MacDonald will start in place of John Barclay, who is rested following his awesome defensive efforts against Fiji and the Wallabies. MacDonald, Cairns and Evans have all been rewarded for their performances for the A team in Friday night's win over Tonga. Argentina have fought hard in the recent games but haven't actually recorded a victory so far this autumn but will quietly fancy their chances of turning over the Scots. Argentina have made six changes to their starting XV including four in the pack. The Pumas have called Leicester prop Marcos Ayerza for Rodrigo Roncero, Alberto Vernet Basualdo for Mario Ledesma at hooker, Manuel Carizza for Mariano Sambucetti at lock and Alejandro Campos for Tomas Leonardi at flanker. In the backs London Irish scrum-half Alfredo Lalanne comes in for Agustin Figuerola, while Federico Martin Aramburu replaces Mauro Comuzzi on the wing. Argentina haven't actually lost against Scotland at Murrayfield since 1990 and are no pushovers and whilst Scotland's defensive effort against the Wallabies last weekend was herculean, they would have lost if Matt Giteau had had his kicking boots on so Scotland being six-point favourites here is a bit of an over-reaction. The Pumas are always tough to beat in any arena and if Scotland can't get on top in the forwards, they could find themselves crashing down to earth. Argentina have to be backed on the handicap as they could even win this fixture.

Verdict: Argentina by 2.

Wales v Australia

The Wallabies went some way to putting their defeat to Scotland behind them with a comfortable midweek victory over Cardiff in the Welsh capital but the spectre of Murrayfield will still haunt them when they take to the pitch in the Millennium Stadium on Saturday evening against Wales and nothing short of a victory will satisfy the Australian public. Wales warmed up for this clash with a comprehensive victory over Argentina last weekend and will know that if they are to go into the Six Nations with a chance of winning, they should really be beating an out-of-sorts Wallaby outfit. Coach Warren Gatland has made one change from the team that beat the Pumas and it is in the backs where Sale Sharks scrum-half Dwayne Peel takes over from Gareth Cooper and wins his 72nd cap. Scarlets scrum-half Martin Roberts will provide bench cover for Peel, but Blues centre Tom Shanklin fails to gain a place in the squad. Australia's midweek captain Dean Mumm has forced his way into Australia's starting XV and there are a total of three changes to the team that lost to Scotland last weekend. Digby Ioane, Will Genia, Wycliff Palu and Benn Robinson have all been cleared to play after passing fitness tests at the University of Glamorgan on Thursday. Ioane returns at centre in place of Ryan Cross while flanker David Pocock and lock Mumm gain starts in place of George Smith and Mark Chisholm respectively. Pocock was rested last weekend against Scotland after being heavily involved earlier in the tour while Mumm has been rewarded for his all-round efforts. As with the Springboks, you'd struggle to back the Wallabies with any sort of confidence at the moment and even with the likes of Pocock back in the side, you struggle to see how they can be favourites to beat Wales this weekend. It's not the greatest piece of value in the world but the 11/10 that Victor Chandler offer about Wales winning this match is worth taking.

Verdict: Wales by 4.

France v New Zealand

This is not only the match of the weekend but probably the whole autumn test series as arguably the best sides in the northern and southern hemispheres clash in Marseilles for bragging rights going into 2010. Both sides won one apiece last year and will equally fancy their chances of winning this one. France have been nothing short of sublime so far during this season whilst the All Blacks have been quietly going about the business of winning rugby games. Les Bleus have been the more impressive but all this will go out of the window on Saturday evening in a game that will be really close. French coach Marc Lièvremont has switched Maxime Médard to wing to accommodate the return of Damien Traille against New Zealand. The in-form French have made just two voluntary changes to the side that took on South Africa in Toulouse however, with Sylvain Marconnet and Sébastien Chabal preferred over Nicolas Mas and Lionel Nallet at prop and lock respectively. Although Maxime Mermoz, Imanol Harinordoquy, Benjamin Fall and Louis Picamoles have all been ruled out through injury, Lièvremont has named a strong-looking side for the match. Barring Traille coming into the full-back jersey, Julien Dupuy gets the nod ahead of the benched Morgan Parra at scrum-half while Fulgence Ouedraogo, Romain Millo-Chluski, William Servat and Fabien Barcella come back into the pack. Yann David and Cédric Heymans, who were both called into the squad because of injuries, will start on the replacements bench. New Zealand have made three changes to the team which defeated England with prop Neemia Tialata replacing Owen Franks, flanker Jerome Kaino stepping in for Adam Thomson, and Cory Jane will getting the nod ahead of Zac Guildford on the right wing. Hooker Corey Flynn will take his place onthe bench after shaking off a hamstring problem, while Tanerau Latimer and Luke McAlister have also been included among the replacements. New Zealand shade favouritism for this match and whilst I wouldn't disagree with that, I've a feeling this match is going to be short on tries and could well come down to which side is best with the boot. Hence the draw is a massive runner this weekend and with stalemates becoming more prevalent in the modern game, it's worth having a couple of quid on the draw at 20/1

Verdict: Draw.