Alonso - worth backing at 2/1.
2/1 ALONSO TO DOUBLE UP
By Tom Millard
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The smirk on Christian Horner's face after the German Grand Prix said more than the words of a dozen commentators and pundits.
In a season largely bereft of controversy, the Red Bull chief's management of his drivers had proved rather controversial, elevating him to the status of something approaching a pantomime villain among sections of the media.
But Horner seemed as bemused as he did relieved when commenting on the "clearest team order I've ever seen" from the Ferrari pit wall in instructing Felipe Massa to cede the race lead to Fernando Alonso.
It wasn't so much the act of the pair swapping positions which was so unedifying, but the farcical way in which the team conducted itself during and after the race.
Listening to Massa's race engineer Rob Smedley, a decent and dignified character, try to convince reporters in a post-race interview that Massa was struggling to stay ahead on hard tyres was a real hide-behind-the-sofa-and-bite-your-fist moment, while the similar charade conducted by team principal Stefano Domenicali proved that the bosses cared so little they didn't even bother rehearsing the script.
Smedley must have been aware that half an hour earlier the entire world had heard his dulcet Teesside tones make Massa what Don Montezemolo might term "an offer he can't refuse" when informing him over the radio that his team-mate was faster than him.
So clear was the inference you get the feeling that even Homer Simpson would have got his drift - in fact even Jonathan Legard twigged.
But if Ferrari regarded the rule book as a mere inconvenience, the stewards barely disagreed - the $100,000 fine levied is the equivalent of two days pay for Alonso, although the team will also have to make an appearance before the World Motor Sport Council in order to get the matter officially brushed under the carpet.
The real issue for Alonso and Ferrari is that they appear to have leapfrogged Red Bull and McLaren in the development stakes and now have the undisputed quickest car on the grid - at least around circuits with a proliferation of slow corners.
So the Spaniard will arrive at the twisty Hungaroring circuit as race favourite for the first time since the Australian Grand Prix in March and it's difficult to oppose him at around the 2/1 mark given how explicitly Ferrari have defined Massa's role for the rest of the season.
Alonso is far from a shoo-in given the consistent form of the Red Bulls in qualifying - 10 poles in 11 races tells its own story there - but Alonso looked to have a clear quarter of a second advantage in the race at Hockenheim so his only worry would be if he was stuck behind both Red Bulls during the first stint at a circuit where passing is notoriously difficult.
We'll take the triple-your-money odds on the double world champion but his team-mate also represents value having been written off as usual by the layers.
Massa was nearly killed at the Budapest track 12 months ago in a freak qualifying accident and the goodwill felt towards the little fella from all corners of the paddock will only have been extended following the events of last weekend.
He always goes well at the Hungaroring - hindsight tells us that his heartbreaking retirement from the lead in the 2008 race cost him the world championship - and he will need no more motivation under current circumstances to restore his dignity.
He may not be allowed to win if Alonso is in contention but we can still take advantage of his being underrated.
Sky Bet's 5/2 that Massa qualifies on the front row would be worth a dabble under any circumstances but those with bwin accounts can take an even better price.
The Austrian firm offer 3/1 on any other outcome in their straight qualifying forecast market, none of which include Massa, effectively making the Brazilian that price to make it on the front row.
This bet would also be landed if any unexpected interloper appears in the front two, such as Nico Rosberg or Robert Kubica, a bonus which should not be disregarded given that some weather forecasts indicate rain could be a factor on Saturday.
We'll also take Extrabet's 6/4 on Massa finishing on the podium on Sunday, a price which simply looks too long if the Ferrari is indeed as quick here as it proved in Germany last weekend.
We're certainly not writing off the Red Bulls given their qualifying prowess but it's not to conclude that only a front-row lockout would give Sebastian Vettel or Mark Webber an opportunity to win the race unless the team can take a further step forward with their car to match the Ferrari.
McLaren, meanwhile, would have had the Hungaroring pencilled in as their territory earlier on in the season but the Woking-based team appear to have fallen off the pace over the last couple of races.
Lewis Hamilton finished nearly 27 seconds behind Alonso at Hockenheim with a race pace around 0.6s off the Ferraris, a gap which will not be made up here even if the engineers find a few more tenths from the blown diffuser which debuted last Sunday.
Renault's Kubica is perhaps the most likely contender from outside the top three teams to break into the top six but the bookies are always cautious of the talented Pole who is odds-on to finish in the first half-dozen here.
One speculative bet in the points market could be Williams rookie Nico Hulkenberg, who is slowly finding his feet at the Grove squad.
The young German has made it through to Q3 in two of the three races since Williams' upgrades vaulted them up to the pace of Renault and Mercedes in Valencia.
He scored a point at Silverstone and only a poor start prevented him from capitalising on a decent qualifying performance at Hockenheim.
The bumpy, dusty Hungaroring demands a pliable car with good traction and the FW32 should be in decent shape on that score - at 9/4 Hulkenberg looks a reasonable shout.
Preview posted at 1325 BST on 29/07/2010.
