Strachan - finding his feet at the Riverside.
CIDER BOYS CAN FRUSTRATE BAGGIES
By Mike Holden
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The bookies keep pushing their luck in the Championship, goading the value-seekers with some seriously tempting prices on the lesser-fancied outfits and so far it seems to be paying off, although there's still plenty of time for them to get their come-uppance.
Once again, the usual suspects are sticking their chins out and thumbing their nose at us, but in spite of being only a whisker away from big profits on so many occasions, we've not landed nearly enough punches to take them down.
A strike rate of five winners from 28 matches is far from satisfactory, no matter how many hard luck stories you console yourself with, and perhaps now is the time to take a step back and start picking our punches more sporadically.
As such, we will play it cagey and decline tempting offers of 21/10 on Barnsley to beat Cardiff and Doncaster to beat QPR but how can you possibly ignore the 5/1 on Bristol City beating West Brom at the Hawthorns?
The Robins have tasted defeat only once in 12 matches (after being reduced to 10 men at Derby) and find themselves only five points adrift of the Baggies in the table and they have the capacity to frustrate, just as Crystal Palace and Swansea have done at similar prices over the past couple of months.
The Cider Boys will be backed by a travelling army of more than 3,000 fans in the Black Country and you can rest assured the players will be busting a gut to get a result against a team that's conceded the first goal in five of their last six home matches.
In this instance, it might also be worth a saver on no goalscorer at 11/1 judging by Gary Johnson's comments in the build-up.
Speaking to the Bristol Evening Post, he said: "If we lose this, we'll be eight points behind West Brom and possibly 10 behind Newcastle. So we'll go there and be organised and try to keep things tight, but we'll also go and try to win the game. If we end up drawing while trying to win it, then so be it."
I'd say that's a pretty big clue of what to expect from the visitors and it's worth pointing out that four of City's last five away games have been goalless after 85 minutes.
Meanwhile, only three points separate third place from tenth but only two teams in that cluster face each other on Saturday with Nottingham Forest looking good value to turn Middlesbrough over at 10/3.
The Teessiders have been notoriously shaky on home soil over the past couple of months and we shouldn't just lay all of the blame for that on Gareth Southgate's doorstep.
The layers are obviously presuming that Gordon Strachan will quickly rectify the problem and he should have a better idea of how to do so now after witnessing Boro's failings first-hand during a limp 1-0 defeat against lowly Plymouth in his first game in charge at the Riverside.
However, we feel the root cause might be the graveyard effect created by swathes of empty seats and a general air of negativity around the place, which creates a psychological issue that's not easily dealt with on the training ground.
If so, then Forest have what it takes to compound Boro's problems because while it could take Strachan a while to find his feet back in management, his opposite number Billy Davies is firmly back into his stride and loving every minute of it.
Under his guidance, Forest have become an extremely tough nut to crack and they shouldn't be short of confidence having dumped Boro out of the Carling Cup at the City Ground back in August, so they also get the nod.
Preview posted at 2130GMT on 19/11/2009
