Tsonga - can help France lift the Davis Cup.
FRENCH ARE CUP FANCIES
By Andy Schooler
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At 5/1, a strong French squad looks worth backing for Davis Cup glory in 2009.
With Gilles Simon and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - world numbers nine and 11 respectively - at the heart of their line-up, the French have two players capable of mixing it with the very best in singles.
And even if their replacements are required, the likes of Richard Gasquet and Gael Monfils (the latter admittedly injured for this weekend's first-round tie) are hardly shabby players.
Indeed Monfils has just climbed into the world's top 10, while former Wimbledon semi-finalist Gasquet is at 24.
France also have nine other players included in the top 100, including doubles expert Michael Llodra, who has proved a valuable member of the squad in the past with a 10-4 win-loss record in those oft-crucial third rubbers.
Now some critics will point out that the French have one of the toughest ties in the opening round - away to the Czech Republic - but the hosts have chosen a slick indoor surface which shouldn't be too much of a concern to the likes of Simon and Tsonga.
Indeed you get the feeling the Czechs, who boast the in-form Radek Stepanek and Tomas Berdych in their side, may be regretting not picking clay in a bid to thwart their opponents.
Should France progress - and they are favourites to do so - then home draws may well await throughout the rest of the competition.
Argentina look certain to be waiting in the quarter-finals, a tie for which the French would surely pick another slick surface on which the Argentines have often exited this tournament.
And should a solid USA team progress past Switzerland and then probably Croatia, France would then have another home tie in the last four.
Home advantage is a big factor in Davis Cup play and added to the French's undoubted strength in depth it makes a formidable barrier to overcome.
Of course, the trouble with finding an outright Davis Cup winner is that things can be thrown out of kilter by one shock result which affects the subsequent venues of all future ties - who hosts a tie is dependent upon where those opponents previously met.
However, we're pretty confident in our view that Argentina and USA would be France's foes in future rounds and are therefore happy to side with them on an each-way basis.
That's not to say we feel they will lose in the final, though.
In the bottom half of the draw, bookies' favourites and defending champions Spain have to be fancied to prevail.
With even greater strength in depth than France - there are 16 Spaniards currently ranked in the world's top 100 in singles - they have a solid base.
The icing on the cake is the fact they have the best player on the planet in Rafael Nadal.
However, while they are worthy favourites at 2/1, we feel they could still be vulnerable.
Nadal isn't always guaranteed to show up - in the past three years he's played in just three of Spain's eight ties be it due to injury or just the need to save himself for the ATP World Tour.
And while Spain are more than capable of winning ties without him on their preferred clay, on the faster surfaces Nadal's absence is felt much more.
Opponents will choose fast surfaces when given the choice - Russia are likely to do so for September's likely semi-final, which interestingly comes just five days after Nadal will be hoping to complete a career Grand Slam by winning the US Open.
If he's pushed himself to the limit in New York, what are the chances of him heading off to Moscow?
With such things in mind, we prefer to swerve the Spanish and stick with France who, significantly, would also have home advantage if they do indeed come up against neighbours Spain in December's final. A final with Russia would also be held in France.
The World Group action gets under way at 1000 GMT with the ties in Spain and Romania.
Preview posted at 2100GMT on 05/03/2009.
