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Picture Stamford Bridge - a real fortress.

KEANE ON ROBBIE & HOME COMFORTS

By Andy Schooler

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
6pts Robbie Keane to score more than 10.5 goals at 5/6 (Sky Bet). Always reached this target in his six years at Spurs and has now joined a better team.
4pts Chelsea to be unbeaten at home at 7/2 (Coral). Haven't lost at home in four and a half years. Price simply too big.
2pts Manchester United to be unbeaten at home at 4/1 (Coral). A fearsome prospect to face at home so price is a tempting one.
2pts Arsenal to be unbeaten at home at 11/2 (Coral). One defeat in two seasons at the Emirates means this quote is also too big.

Robbie Keane to score more than 10.5 goals at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

In his six seasons at Spurs, Keane scored more than 10.5 league goals every single time.

The Irish international has moved to a better team in Liverpool and we simply can't see a good reason why he won't continue that record in a red shirt.

OK, Fernando Torres will bag plenty of Liverpool's goals, but it was hardly the case of Keane being the main man at Spurs where most recently Dimitar Berbatov and, going back a while, Jermain Defoe have both 'taken goals away' from Keane.

Injury has never been a major part of Keane's career, so that aspect should not be of undue concern to potential backers.

The only other reason we can think for this low over/under mark is a question mark about how many games Keane will play.

Like every star these days - especially in a team managed by Rafael Benitez - Keane will be rested on occasion.

However, you hav to think Benitez will be looking to form a partnership between the £20million man and Torres, while there's the obvious scenario that when Torres gets his rest, Keane will be the main man.

It's easy to see him bagging a hat-trick against the likes of Hull - and any treble would take him more than a quarter of a way to his target.

  • This market is listed under Football, Speciality Markets, Player Specials.

    Chelsea to be unbeaten at home at 7/2 (Coral)

    Manchester United to be unbeaten at home at 4/1 (Coral)

    Arsenal to be unbeaten at home at 11/2 (Coral)

    For us, Coral simply haven't priced their 'stay unbeaten at home' markets up correctly.

    Take Chelsea.

    They are unbeaten at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League since February 2004.

    Despite what was termed by many a disappointing season by their high standards, the Blues managed to avoid a home defeat throughout the last campaign.

    We accept a simple argument can be made that new boss Luiz Felipe Scolari has been brought in with an emphasis on more attacking football and therefore gaps at the back could be left.

    However, we don't buy into that too heavily.

    Scolari knows better than anyone that success is built on a solid defence. He was criticised when boss of Brazil for a too cautious approach, yet it was one that brought home the World Cup in 2002.

    And with players such as John Terry and Ricardo Carvalho at the heart of his defence, it's hardly the case that the backline looks weak.

    We see no reason why it shouldn't be business as usual and certainly would have thought the chances of the Blues going another 19 games unbeaten at home should be more like Sky Bet's 2/1 quote rather than Coral's generous 7/2.

    We also like the look of Manchester United's 4/1 quote to see off all-comers at Old Trafford.

    Statisically this quote does make a bit more sense as, perhaps surprisingly, you have to go back to 1999/2000 to find the last tme United went through a league campaign unbeaten at home.

    However, it's fair to say that the current United side - the reigning English and European champions - are as good as any the club has produced since the turn of the century.

    Last year only a surprise defeat against local rivals City cost them an unbeaten home campaign and that loss can largely be explained away by the emotion of the occasion - the match followed the sombre commemorations of the 50th anniversary of the Munich air disaster.

    With a forward line of Ronaldo, Rooney and Tevez, United are once more putting the fear of God into teams before they even arrive at Old Trafford - and it's becoming more and more like the days of Yorke, Cole, Sheringham and Solskjaer with each month that passes.

    With defenders of the calibre of Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand to deal with, there's hardly much to encourage the opposition at the other end, so we'll take a slice of the 4/1.

    Finally in this market, we're also happy to back Arsenal.

    This is a bit more of a long shot, but the 11/2 price reflects that.

    The 08/09 campaign will be their third at the Emirates Stadium and in the first two the Gunners have played 38 home league games and lost only one (West Ham winning there in April 2007).

    Last season Arsenal were the best team in the land until March. It did go horribly wrong from that point, but it showed that Arsene Wenger knows what he's doing when it comes to blooding young players.

    That meas Samir Nasri is likely to be starring in their midfield in the not-to-distant future and could help ensure that Alexander Hleb are not unduly missed.

    One worry is the holding midfield role with Mathieu Flamini and Gilberto Silva both leaving this summer, but it would be no surprise if Wenger gives the likes of Denilson and Alex Song, until now best known for turning out in the Carling up, a first-team promotion and they step up to the plate. Let's face it it's happened plenty of times before.

    Again 11/2 is too big for us.

    With all three sides on our coupon, we're very confident of making a profit from this market.

  • This market is listed under Barclays Premier League and then Unbeaten At Home.

  • Preview posted at 1030BST on 14/08/2008.


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