Campbell - loves this venue.

By Dave Tindall

Click here for the inside track from Harry Emanuel

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1.5pts e.w. Chad Campbell at 66/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Runner-up two years ago, loves this course and played nicely at Mercedes.
	0.75pts e.w. Bubba Watson at 100/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Hugely talented and overpowered this course at times when fourth in 2006.
	0.75pts e.w. J.B.Holmes at 125/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Top 10 in his last two starts - in US and Australia - and 10th on debut here in 2006.
	2pts e.w. Stephen Ames at 20/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Just one shot out of a play-off last week and game suited to Waialae.

There's no compelling evidence that playing the first leg of the two-week Hawaii Swing gives players a much greater chance of winning the second.

And even though the numbers do slightly favour those who teed it up in the Mercedes, that shouldn't surprise us.

To make it into the first tournament of the year, you needed to have posted a win the year before so, by definition, the Mercedes entrants who stay on for the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club are the best players anyway and, in theory, more likely to win.

Ernie Els, Vijay Singh and David Toms - the Sony winners from 2004 to 2006 - had played the Mercedes in the year of their wins but last year's champion Paul Goydos had not.

It may also be worth pointing out that, of those three high-class winners, only Singh had made the top 10 the previous week.

There is also another perception about this venue worth taking a closer look.

It's true that Waialae is different to the Plantation course in many ways. It's much flatter, the fairways are much narrower and the greens are much smaller.

But anyone who saw Bubba Watson overpower the course for large spells when fourth in 2006 will know that simply ruling big hitters out of the equation here is dangerous.

"Bubba hits the ball 350 yards in the air and he made a fool out of everybody in Hawaii. It's incredible," Vijay Singh recalled after seeing Watson almost drive some of the shorter par fours.

Watson returns for another crack this year and at a three-figure price he could be worth a play again.

After once again confounding conventional wisdom by finishing fifth in the US Open in June, Watson lost his way for a while but bagged a 14th and an 18th in two of his last four US Tour starts of 2007 and also took the eye in the silly season events.

That included a second place alongside tournament host Greg Norman in the Merrill Lynch Shootout last month and the Aussie was blown away by his partner's talent.

After watching Watson strike the ball superbly, Norman said: "He was never swinging outside of his capabilities. The ball was under control especially with his short irons. He was hitting the ball the right distance all the time.

"I haven't seen a guy like this since the days of Ballesteros, Trevino, probably a little bit of myself because I manoeuver the ball a lot.

"I used to flight the ball tremendously high, low, whatever I saw. You really don't see players these days with the technology that we have and the golf ball that we have do the things that Bubba does.

"That's a unique talent, to say the least, because he told me that he goes out there and plays with one club sometimes. That's an art in itself because you're learning to play shots, hook shots, fade shots, hit them high and hit them low.

"With the ability that he has and with the youth on his side, you know, I said to him today basically the world is his oyster."

Watson also putted well so if, a month on, his game is still in good shape he could make a big impression here again.

This is Watson's third visit to the Sony so he has some useful experience to draw upon now and the 100/1 is well worth a go.

Another giant hitter, J.B. Holmes, was 10th here two years ago and said that his extra length was a huge help on several holes.

Like Watson, he isn't the most consistent sort but his last two tournament starts have produced a ninth in the Children's Miracle Network Classic in Florida in November and a 10th in the Australian PGA Championship at Hyatt Coolum last month.

Both those top tens came on Bermuda greens - as did his stunning seven-shot victory in Phoenix two years ago - so he should appreciate putting on his favoured surface again here.

This is the third consecutive year since making the full Tour that Holmes has started his season in Hawaii and in the previous two he finished 10th here and fourth at the Mercedes.

That has to bode well and the 125/1 at Coral makes plenty of appeal.

Now time for two more traditional picks.

Although our first two selections are young bucks, it's clear that experienced players have a fine record in the Sony.

Goydos (42), Toms (39) and Singh (41) - the last three winners - were all around the 40-year-old mark and the one that stands out for me in that category this year is Stephen Ames.

The Canadian was just one shot out of a play-off at the Mercedes after closing with a seven-under 66 and said he went into that tournament feeling a little rusty.

Ames was ranked second for Scrambling and third for Putting at the Mercedes so his short game looks very tidy and he was also extremely pleased with his ball-striking.

A proven winner on Bermuda greens and an excellent wind player, Waialae should be right up his street and, a look at past records, proves it is.

Despite being DQ'd last year, his previous two trips yielded an eighth in 2004 and a seventh in 2002.

The early 25s was snapped up but he's still a play at 20s.Finally, I really like the look of the 66/1 about Chad Campbell.

Like Ames, he played in the Mercedes last week and gave a decent account of himself, playing the last three rounds in 13-under (18-under won it) after an opening 75.

Campbell was third for Greens In Regulation which is often a key pointer to success in the Sony and also eighth in Putting.

He got back into the winners' circle with victory in September's Viking Classic and one of the significant points to take from that win was the fact that the greens at Annandale had been changed to Bermuda from Bentgrass the previous year.

It means all four of his wins (2003 Tour Championship, 2004 Bay Hill and 2006 Bob Hope were the other three) have come on Bermuda and, of course, this is what he gets to putt on at Waialae.

Add in his ability to shape shots in the wind and it's no surprise to see that he finished runner-up on this course two years ago.

Campbell was also third at halfway 12 months ago before slipping back and said in his post-second round interview: "It's one of my favourites courses I play all year.

"I just like the way it's kind of an old-style, traditional golf course. Those really fit my eye. There's some more we play on Tour, but this is definitely one of the top ones I enjoy playing."

At 66/1 he goes in as the headline tip.