Wiggins - can capture Prologue.
CADEL CAN CLAIM TOUR GLORY
By Ian Warren
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Doping allegations continue to plague the Tour de France but there are still good reasons to be excited about the 2007 race.
For a start, the first two stages take place on our side of the Channel, with two British riders in with a real chance of winning Saturday's Prologue. And, looking at the bigger picture, the race itself appears to be wide open.
A good point to bear in mind is that the vast majority of participants have a single goal, simply to finish the race.
In doing so they hope to be able to support their team leader in whatever way they can. Carrying water-bottles, sacrificing food rations, serving as a back wheel the team leader can fix on, generally doing their leader's bidding until they either drop with exhaustion or make way only for the main man to take the glory.
So when looking for a potential Tour winner it's important to recognise the importance of his team - not just the riders but also his directeur sportif whose responsibility it is to dictate strategy for each stage.
In addition, a depth of experience is certainly an asset when tackling the Tour. It tells you when to attack and where to pay it safe, and how best to use up energy resources.
My belief is that the top three in the betting are unbackable at the current prices.
Alexandre Vinokourov (2/1) and Andreas Kloden (11/2) have a very strong team at Astana, with the likes of Paolo Savoldelli and Andrey Kashechkin to help out. However the doping cloud has forced them to reshuffle their pack, with Eddy Mazzoleni and Matthias Kessler being forced out in the last week. This must have hampered team preparations.
Vinokourov himself lost seven minutes on a climb in the Dauphine and whilst he shrugged it off it wouldn't fill me with any confidence at 2/1.
There are also reasons to suspect that team leadership may become an issue should Kloden ride well. We are told it will be decided "on the road", hardly an ideal situation for both riders.
Kloden has claims for a podium finish. He finished second to Armstrong in 2004, a Tour where he usurped Jan Ullrich's leadership of the T-Mobile team during the race.
Will the same happen again? Maybe. Kloden would have been a play at a slightly bigger price each-way. I make him slight odds-on for a top three finish, making a place bet a possible wager.
Alejandro Valverde (11/2) has never completed a Tour and whilst the Spaniard is undoubtedly talented he has been troubled in recent weeks with stomach problems, forcing him to abandon the Dauphine.
In addition his name continues to be linked with Operation Puerta, and whilst he continues to reject the claims it can hardly help.
However, below the three market leaders there look to be a couple of real opportunities.
Former mountain-biker Cadel Evans has had a remarkable introduction to the Tour de France, finishing eighth and fifth the last two years.
During that time he proved his credentials as an exceptional climber, going toe-to-toe with the likes of Armstrong and Ullrich.
In addition, the profile of the race would appear to suit him. Evans conquered Col d'Aubisque in 2005, the venue of stage 16 this year, and has ridden well over Galibier and Peyresourde (stages 9 and 15 respectively this year).
He's proved his quality already this year with a second place finish at the Dauphine recently, and comes into the Tour in great heart. Take the 14/1.
Carlos Sastre has spent a large part of his career in support of Ivan Basso.
Last year he rode the three Grand Tours - the Giro, the Tour de France and the Vuelta. When Basso was suspended for the Tour de France, Sastre was suddenly made team leader at CSC and, having targeted the Vuelta for the season, was somewhat unprepared for the responsibility of team leadership.
In spite of this Sastre rode marvellously well in the mountains, and came into the penultimate stage second in the race before an horrendous time-trial. He would end up finishing fourth.
It could be a different story this time though. With team leadership decided a long time ago his schedule has been specifically planned with the Tour in mind, and a fresh Sastre will pose a serious threat for the Yellow Jersey.
In CSC he also has a formidable team unit and directeur sportif, and at 14/1 he's well worth an each-way punt.
Saturday's Prologue in London is a hard race to call.
In racing parlance the route is non-technical, meaning there are long, wide straights to build up speed and the ability to handle tight corners is less important than on a tighter route.
Two British riders, David Millar and Bradley Wiggins, are among the favourites. Millar, however, is not in great shape and said recently: "I'm not firing on all cylinders. It's all gone to **** since I was sent to [the Tour of] Romandie [in early May], which threw a complete spanner in the works."
Fabian Cancellara - reigning world TT champion and winner of the Prologue last year - is a worthy favourite, but, call me sentimental, I'm going for Wiggins.
He was a double gold medallist at the worlds on the track this Spring, then trounced a world-class field in the Dauphine Prologue last month, winning by 1.5 seconds.
He was born and raised along the route of the course and, roared on by the home crowd, should go very close.
Of the other markets, a number of firms have match bets up and those which stand out are any involving Michael Rogers and the aforementioned Millar.
Rogers has a micro-fracture of the knee and it is doubtful he'll finish the three weeks. Bet365 have him in a match with emerging superstar Alberto Contador, for example.
Millar is matched up with Wiggins for the prologue and, as stated, I'm nailing my colours firmly to the latter.
Finally, William Hill price up No British riders to complete the Tour at 12/1, cut from an original 16/1.
Given the doubts surrounding Millar's form, and the relative inexperience and capabilities of the others, it still appears to be out.
It's a touch speculative, but I only see Millar as a likely finisher and, in a race like the Tour, it's far from certain that he'll be riding into Paris on July 29.
Preview posted at 2020BST on 03/07/2007.
