
Singh - can win third USPGA. (Getty Images)
VIJAY TO BAG BALTUSROL GLORY
By Dave Tindall
Betting Box Tipping Guide
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BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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5pts win Vijay Singh at 7/1 (General). |
May turn into a shootout between Singh and Tiger so the 7/1 about the Fijian looks far better than the 9/4 over Woods. |
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1pt e.w. Adam Scott at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Overdue a big performance in the majors and current form plus length of course suggests this could be the week. |
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1.5pts e.w. Sergio Garcia at 28/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
In excellent form with top fives in the last two majors and he should really enjoy this course. |
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ANTE-POST
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2pts e.w. Kenny Perry at 66/1 (VC Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
The USPGA offers best hope for players seeking first major and Perry has excellent credentials. |
However many times I look at it, I still struggle to see how Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh won't both be contesting the finish in the USPGA at Baltusrol this week.
Woods has gone 1-2-1 in the majors this year and, like Singh, is a two-time winner of the USPGA.
The year's final major eluded the likes of Arnold Palmer and Tom Watson and it's easy to see how the top players might struggle to get as pumped up for the USPGA given its standing as the fourth most prestigious of the majors and the fact that it follows on so quickly from the Open.
But Woods and Singh have never had that problem. For them, it's another chance to put a major on the CV and their mental toughness assures nothing less than 100% effort.
Between them they've won four of the last seven USPGAs and I honestly think it'll take a special effort from someone to prevent that stat rising to five out of eight.
So is it a case of just backing these two and striking a line through the rest? Or do we vigorously rub the crystal ball in an attempt to pick out the next Rich Beem or Shaun Micheel?
I much prefer the former strategy on this occasion even though I'll come down on the side of just one of the front two and pick out some each-way picks later on.
The best defence against Tiger I can muster is that he's never won a Major on a par 70 but I can't help feeling that it's just a statistical quirk that will soon be corrected – even if there may be something in the idea that he has two less par fives to bully.
The problem with backing Woods though is that we're back to those prices of four or five years ago and you'll have to take 9/4 if your money is going on Tiger this week.
Given that I give Singh an equal chance – especially after he comfortably held off a charging Tiger in the Buick Open last time out thanks to some vastly improved putting – it's the Fijian who goes into the staking plan at a perfectly reasonable 7/1.
Singh, as defending champion, played the course back in late June as part of the official media day and told reporters that, at 7,392 yards, the shorter hitters could forget about winning.
We have to be careful with comments like that as we were told that longer hitters had a massive advantage at the Atlanta Country Club (a 7,213-yard par 70) back in 2001 – a tournament won by the relatively short-hitting David Toms.
Singh qualifies his comments somewhat by saying that it's important to keep the ball in play too, so that ideal of driving it long and straight is definitely the perfect mix on this course.
Singh's lofty position (11th) in the Total Driving stats (which measure length and accuracy) strengthens our liking for the defending champ but also points us towards some alternatives to the front two in the betting.
As stated, we may only be playing for the place money but a decent each-way payout still appeals more than the 9/4 about Tiger.
The leader in the Total Driving stats is Kenny Perry and regular readers will know that we tipped him up in our ante-post preview at 66/1.
That's proved good business with Perry now being quoted at a top 40/1 but even at those decreased odds he should still be worth a flutter.
The two younger names high on the Total Driving stats that interest me are Zach Johnson and Sean O'Hair.
Johnson was tied second in the Buick Open last time out and, after some patchy form in 2005, looks ready to kick on again and justify his billing as one of the brightest prospects in the game.
O'Hair must surely be on track for Rookie of the Year honours after a stunning first season on Tour. He first took the eye with a second place in the Byron Nelson and proved that was no fluke by capturing the John Deere Classic six starts later.
Since then he's made the top 15 at St Andrews and added another top ten at the Buick Open.
Both O'Hair and Johnson are three figure prices and I wouldn't put anyone off an each-way punt even though there are other more experienced campaigners who I prefer to carry our each-way money.
One who I feel is long overdue a big, big major performance is Adam Scott.
The young Australian knows he can beat the world's best as he proved by winning the 2004 Players Championship at Sawgrass.
But in the majors he still has nothing better on the board than the tied ninths he recorded at the 2002 US Masters and in this event at Whistling Straits 12 months ago.
However, it's only a matter of time before Scott really flexes his muscles in a major and this looks a good opportunity for him to strike.
So far the USPGA has been his most consistent major with last year's top ten making it three successive top 25s.
And there has to be every chance of that improving further on a course whose extra length should play into his hands.
Scott arrives at Baltusrol with plenty of confidence in the bank after a solid summer of golf which has produced a second place in the Booz Allen, a 12th in the Scottish Open and a top five in the Scandinavian Open last time out.
Between those finishes, he was 28th in the US Open and 34th in the British Open so having established a platform of consistency he may be ready to explode.
The putter may hold the key but, in general, he's stroked the ball better on US greens this season than in Europe so if a few drop early Scott could give Woods and Singh something serious to think about.
Take the 33/1 about a first Aussie major winner since Steve Elkington won this event 10 years ago.
Looking quickly at the other market leaders, I'm not at all keen on Phil Mickelson at present. Despite some flashy bursts of scoring he's throwing in too many errors and you can't afford that in majors.
Going 36 holes at hilly Castle Pines on Sunday isn't a great preparation either so I'll strike a line through winner Retief Goosen.
Despite taking away the trophy, I can't say I was overly-impressed by the South African and it was a win that fell into his lap due to the ineptness of those around him.
His game still looks to have flaws and in 2005 they're being exposed when it matters most – in the final rounds of majors.
David Toms and Jim Furyk are harder to dismiss although Toms too had to make the 36-hole trudge on Sunday.
Both have won their Majors on longish par 70s and have added to their collection of Tour wins in 2005.
But if it's in-form short hitters against in-form long hitters, my preference on this course is for the latter, especially if the names in question are Singh, Woods and Scott.
With that the case, my final pick is another top name who can give it a lash – Spain's Sergio Garcia.
I have a feeling that Garcia will really enjoy a more traditional course like Baltusrol, given that he's won at Westchester, Las Colinas and Colonial Country Club.
His recent record really is outstanding, especially in the majors where he's made the top five in the US and British Opens.
It also includes a win in the Booz Allen Classic just four starts ago so, despite sitting out the final two rounds at The International (probably a plus all things considered), I'm expecting Garcia to bounce back in style here.
Anyone who watched him push Tiger all the way at the 1999 USPGA would expect him to have at least one major in the bank by now but he's up there so often that it's worth persevering with him especially if he's at least giving us each-way payouts.
Coral are dangling 28/1 about Garcia and we'll snap that up without hesitation.
Notable mentions should go to in-form pair Tim Clark and Mark Hensby and they aren't a million miles away from making the staking plan.
Chad Campbell, a runner-up in the 2003 USPGA, was another to pick away at my brain while Justin Leonard's superb record in this event suggests he could show up again.
Aside from Garcia, the European challenge looks big in number but short on genuine quality.
Luke Donald fans will certainly be happy to see 50/1 on offer about their man but just one top ten in his last seven starts suggests it's not as generous as it seems.
There may be a twist in the tale in the 2005 majors season but my belief is that anyone who can finish in front of Woods and Singh will be lifting the Wanamaker Trophy.
Hopefully, in Scott, Garcia and Perry, we've identified the men most likely as the USPGA traditionally offers the best hope for players seeking to land a first major.
But we'll settle for the each-way money from this trio if Singh is the one to get his nose in front.
Preview posted at 1720BST on 08/08/2005
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