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O'Driscoll - set for 50th cap (Getty Images).

FRANCE TO SEAL GRAND SLAM

By David Gee

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Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
4pt double Wales (-16) to beat Italy and France (-3) to beat England both at 10/11 (Bet365). Wales have improved in recent months while France are chasing the Grand Slam.

France's overwhelming victory against the Scots last weekend means that they are now the red-hot favourites to win this year's Six Nations and with it a Grand Slam which they have craved for several years now.

With England under performing in this season's tournament, Les Bleus have never had a better chance to stamp their authority on northern hemisphere rugby and all eyes will be on the Stade de France on Saturday evening when these two giants of the rugby world clash.

England got their international season back on track last weekend when they overcame a nervous first-half to beat Wales 31-21. It was another unconvincing performance from the World Cup holders, but Clive Woodward would have been happy just to have won at Twickenham on Saturday and he will be looking to the future after this tournament has finished.

Ireland kept the pressure on the top two sides by beating Italy at a windswept Lansdowne Road where running rugby was almost impossible in the conditions. Hence the scoreline of 19-3 was hardly surprising as the ball was blown forward every time it was passed and spoilt what was potentially an intriguing game of rugby. Eddie O'Sullivan's men now need to put fifty points past Scotland on Saturday and hope that England manage to beat France on their own turf if they are to have any chance of mathematically winning this season's championship, but it looks a tall order.

Scotland's tournament went from bad to worse last Sunday as they failed to register a point past France's defence at Murrayfield in a game which lacked any sort of attacking nous from the Scots. Murrayfield was eerily quiet for the majority of the game and caoch Matt Williams has a mountain to climb if he is to turn Scotland from perennial underachievers into potential Six Nations champions. They look up against it when they face Ireland this weekend, with morale surely at an all time low.

WALES v ITALY (Saturday, 14.00)

Wales will be proud of their progress in the last year and they will see this weekend as the perfect opportunity to exorcise a couple of ghosts from last season when they take on Italy at the Millennium Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Steve Hansen's men were humbled over at the Stadio di Flaminio last term which saw the men in red pick up the wooden spoon at the end of the tournament but they will finish a respectable fourth this season if they can overcome the Azzurri here. However, Steve Hansen has a long injury list to stare at this week as he prepares for his last game in charge of Wales before he joins Graham Henry in New Zealand. Both Brent Cockbain and Jonathan Thomas were injured in the game against England, whilst Iestyn Harris is still struggling with a knee injury which kept him out of last weekend's game. Nevertheless it is not all doom and gloom for Hansen, as skipper Colin Charvis, scrum-half Gareth Cooper and centre Mark Taylor have recovered from minor knocks and are expected to be available for selection. Italy are another side which have acquitted themselves well during this tournament and, assuming Scotland fail to beat Ireland in Dublin this weekend, the Azzurri will again finish fifth in the Six Nations table, a remarkable record for a fledgling rugby nation which has only just recently joined the tournament. Veteran forward Carlo Checchinato is the principal doubt for Italy but Roberto Mandelli stands by to fill the number eight jersey in case Checchinato does not make it. Fabio Ongaro will start as hooker although it is not clear whether Stefano Saviozzi or Carlo Festuccia will deputise on the bench. Wales will be looking to round of this competition in style and give Steve Hansen the send-off he deserves. The layers have set the handicap mark at seventeen, which looks about right, but if conditions stay sound, Wales could be worth a small bet to cover the handicap.

Verdict: Wales by twenty.

IRELAND v SCOTLAND (Saturday, 16.00)

As Ireland chase an improbable Triple Crown, the Scots will be desperate for a victory in Dublin so that they do not finish this season's Six Nations with a wooden spoon in their hands. Coach Matt Williams knew it would be tough when he took over the Scottish team, but he now realises he has a tough task on his hands after his side have been outplayed in every game under his control so far. Last weekend's whitewash at Murrayfield will not have endeared him to a proud Scottish nation, yet he still insists that his side can be a force in the game if given time to progress together. Ireland have made two changes to the side which battled to victory in near gale-force winds in Dublin last weekend. Paul O'Connell returns to the second row after missing the Italy game with a rib injury, which means Donnacha O'Callaghan drops down to the bench. Flanker David Wallace also makes a surprise return to the side, after Keith Gleeson's broken arm which has ruled him out for eight weeks. Wallace last played for Ireland in their World Cup warm-up against Scotland in October and was just chosen over Neil McMillan, as O'Sullivan clearly prefers experience in these sort of occasions. Ireland look certain to win this match and give skipper Brian O'Driscoll the perfect present on the day he reaches fifty caps for Ireland. However, the layers have given Scotland a twenty-four point start this weekend, which seems overly big, especially given the recent weather in Ireland. Their defence held the French for quite a while on Sunday and if they can find that fighting spirit again, then this could be too much for Ireland to concede. Keep stakes small though.

Verdict: Ireland by eighteen.

FRANCE v ENGLAND (Saturday, 20.00)

Whereas this game will still go a long way to deciding which side lifts this season's Six Nations trophy, it is not the Grand Slam showdown that many rugby pundits expected. England's lacklustre performances in this season's tournament culminated in a 19-13 defeat against Ireland at Twickenham, and France will seriously fancy themselves to beat the world champions in the cauldron that is the Stade de France and capture the Grand Slam that has eluded Bernard Laporte and his side for several years. Many pundits though France a tad unlucky to lose to England in very wet conditions during the World Cup, as Les Bleus had impressed in the run-up to that semi-final and were playing some devastating rugby. However, whereas France have retained some sort of form coming into this tournament, several international retirement and key injuries to certain players have meant that Clive Woodward and his men have found life very difficult since lifting the World Cup back in November. Hence, France are favourites to win this game and it will take a very good performance from England to rob them of their first Six Nations title since 2002. Woodward had decided to go with experience over youth this weekend, which meant there was initially no place for fly-half Olly Barkley, who scored 16 points on his full test debut last weekend. However, Paul Grayson has failed to recover from his injury, so therefore Barkley has now been drafted back into the side. The only other change Woodward has made is the enforced replacement of Sale flanker Chris Jones, who has been ruled out of this game with a wrist injury. His place is taken by Joe Worsley, who scored after coming on for the injured Jones last weekend. Bernard Laporte has made a few changes to his squad for this decisive match. Number eight and vice-captain Imanol Harinordoquy is back after shaking off his left elbow injury and replaces Thomas Lievremont in the starting line-up. Pierre Mignoni has been called up to start on the bench, while Julien Bonnaire and Vincent Clerc have both been overlooked for `Le Crunch'. France will always raise their game against England, especially in Paris and have to be fancied giving up a two point head-start here. They come into this match in much better form and even though England can never be underestimated, they have shown that they are not unbeatable and this psychological edge can swing the game in France's favour and with it the Grand Slam.

Verdict: France by eight.

  • Preview posted at 2045GMT on 24/03/2004.


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