Justin Leonard - can win second major. (Getty Images)

By Dave Tindall

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Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	2pts e.w. Justin Leonard at 50/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)	Thrives on tough courses, good all-round stats and shot 61 at Colonial recently.
	2pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 33/1 (Blue Square 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)	Has played some great golf this year and Major breakthrough will surely come soon.
	2pts. e.w. Phil Mickelson at 25/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)	Excellent US Open record. Reeling his game in helps, allowing short game magic to flourish.
	1pt e.w. Billy Mayfair at 250/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)	Has made the top ten in two of his last three US Opens. Steady types often do well.

The Majors, and the US Open in particular, are designed to test all parts of a player's game.

And that's why I'm inclined to make use of the US Tour's all-round ranking stats as the basis for this week's staking plan.

As well as being a logical way to approach the year's second Major, history also suggests it's the way to go.

In recent US Opens, a large percentage of the leading finishers were all ranked highly in the all-round category while we can expect a similar outcome at this week's venue - Olympia Fields in Chicago.

It was last used as a Major venue for the 1997 US Seniors Open when victory went to Graham Marsh. And notably, despite not being one of the biggest names in Seniors golf, Marsh finished third in the seniors all-round rankings stats that year.

Marsh certainly proved that all parts of his game were functioning in Chicago that week, the box scores showing him to be 16th in driving accuracy, 11th for greens hit and tied fourth in putts.

His only moderate stat was driving distance (46th out of 68) which proves the point that you don't have to be the longest of hitters to flourish in a US Open.

The US Tour's all-round stats in 2003, as you'd expect, are dominated by the top players - 1) Ernie Els, 2) Davis Love, 3) Mike Weir, 4) Vijay Singh, 5) Kenny Perry, 6) Tiger Woods, 7) Chris DiMarco, 8) Chad Campbell, 9) Jim Furyk, 10) Darren Clarke, 11) Justin Leonard, 12) Tim Herron.

Aside from Tiger, Ernie Els, as a two-time winner of the US Open, would be the obvious name to put forward first. But Els' first place position is based mainly on his performances at the start of the year.

Ernie has (inevitably) cooled off since then and injury (hurting his wrist on a punch bag) and illness (a bout of the flu') have hampered his build-up to this year's event.

His putter has also stopped behaving so I think it would be prudent to wait until Els starts firing all cylinders again. That could well come in July when he defends his Open title in Sandwich.

Davis Love comes even closer to selection but it can't have helped him that he's had to stay on in Washington to contest the final round of the FBR Capital Open.

I'm convinced that the US Open is the most mentally sapping of all the Majors and I much prefer players who go into the event fresh.

It certainly seems to be the winning formula. Of the last seven winners, only Retief Goosen had been in action the previous weekend. So having to play on a Monday must surely be an even bigger hindrance.

The key players it effects this week - Love, Padraig Harrington and maybe Chris DiMarco - can't be ruled out of course but I think it may catch up with them.

The extra burden of being defending champion also seems too much to cope with when the pressure is this high.

Since 1991, only one champion has finished better than 40th in trying to defend his Open crown. No prizes for guessing who that was but even Tiger could only manage tied 12th the following year.

Woods could make a mockery of that stat but since those flurry of wins following his comeback from knee surgery the world number one has looked human. And his two US Open wins have come on courses where he's been able to give it a lash (Pebble Beach and Bethpage).

With his form not as good and a twisty course where the driver is taken out of his hands more often, I'm willing to take Tiger on.

And so to our tips.

When conditions are difficult and almost 'unfair' the players who can stick their jaw out and take it on the chin are the ones who will flourish.

And someone who does that better than most is Justin Leonard.

When everyone was kicking up a real fuss at the tightness of Carnoustie in the 1999 Open, Leonard got his head down and played the cards in front of him. And he was so nearly rewarded, eventually losing a play-off to Paul Lawrie.

Troon, the scene of Leonard's Open win two years earlier, also required patience and an ability to handle adverse conditions while he also had to dig deep to win the Players Championship in 1998.

I am slightly baffled while Leonard hasn't done better in US Opens although three top 16s in the last four years suggests he's winning his battle.

He also toughed it out to finish runner-up to Love at Winged Foot in the 1997 USPGA (only four players were under par) so we have plenty of evidence that tough, tight courses bring out the best in him.

It's about time the former US Amateur champion added a second Major and he knows he should have done so last year when blowing a three-shot final round lead in Rich Beem's USPGA.

But Leonard is the sort to be driven on by that mishap and a final round 61 at Colonial last month suggests his game is right where he wants it.

Leonard is high in the all-round stats (11th), hits plenty of fairways, can be an inspirational putter and can scramble his butt off when in the mood.

I really like his chances this week and he looks cracking betting material at 50/1.

While Leonard alread has a Major tucked under his belt, our next tip is still waiting for the door to open.

No it's not Monty or Darren Clarke (no European has won since Tony Jacklin in 1970), the player in question is Jim Furyk.

The Pennsylvanian pragmatist has already done us a couple of favours by landing the each-way money at the US Masters and the Players Championship.

Those top four finishes gave further proof that Furyk is a steely competitor and although he's flopped in his recent US Opens, I expect him to be right in the shake up here.

Furyk is fifth in driving accuracy, ninth on the all-round rankings and seventh in scrambling (an important attribute given that all the players will miss their share of greens).

Olympia Fields has plenty of opportunities for Furyk to launch his favoured fade from the tee and he also seems to enjoy playing in Chicago. In his last four outings in the Western Open, Furyk has made the top seven three times (Leonard, by the way, reeled off six top 20s at Cog Hill between 1995 and 2001, including a second and a third).

Furyk has also yet to post his annual win. Could it be here? I'm willing to bet it will be so take the 33/1 each-way.

Now's the time to raise some eyebrows.

My third pick is Phil Mickelson.

What, you cry? His game is in a mess. He hasn't won this year, he missed the cut last week and his driving is so wayward that he has no chance on a tight US Open track.

However, given that 25/1 is on offer I am prepared to overlook a few negatives and back the guy's talent.

The pros will tell you that it's the short game that wins Majors. And it's that quality which makes Mickelson a genuine threat in any US Open.

It's simply wrong to say that the set-up doesn't suit him, as his record proves. While punters pile on him every year at Augusta, the bottom line is that he's never managed better than third place.

In the US Open he's twice finished runner-up (1999 and 2002), was fourth in 1995 and has made the top ten five times in eight years.

As well as his short-game prowess, Mickelson also does well in his national championship because, again defying the popular myth, he can reel his game in.

Mickelson can become obsessed with trying to launch the ball miles and when he does it can put him in trouble. That's why he's fourth in driving distance but 179th for accuracy.

But on US Open courses, there is simply no future in constantly bombing it off the tee. That's especially the case at Olympia Fields where a good number of the holes dogleg at around 250-270 yards.

He's 18th on the all-round stats and would be much higher were it not for his wayward driver which he will keep in his bag for much of the time here.

So if Mickelson keeps it in play he will be a big, big threat. And when he does find trouble, there are few better than pulling off incredible escapes.

As we saw last year, US Open crowds love to pull for Phil and that should hit fever pitch on Sunday - Mickelson's birthday!

So forget last week's missed cut (he suffered a similar fate before finishing third in the Masters) and put your trust in pure ability.

Join in the birthday celebrations and back Lefty at 25/1.

Vijay Singh and Mike Weir both came very close to selection. Both are high on the all-round stats and both are Major winners.

Singh has five top tens in this event while, before he won the Masters, Weir reckoned the US Open was the Major he was most likely to win.

I wouldn't put anyone off but personal preference is for Leonard, Furyk and Mickelson.

Stewart Cink (66/1) and Chad Campbell (100/1) both have the game and the temperament for this event and they would be my idea of value outsiders. Cink shot a startling 62-61 in US Open qualifying while Campbell is eighth in the all-round stats.

But at an enormous 250/1, I will put forward Billy Mayfair as my final pick.

Mayfair, a close buddy of Mickelson's, is tied 38th in driving accuracy and tied 47th for greens so hits it pretty straight.

And his calm nature is a good fit for this event where he can boast some impressive results. In his last three US Open starts, Mayfair has racked up a tied 10th at Pinehurst and a tied fifth at Bethpage last year.

He was also tied third in the British Open at Lytham two years ago and tied seventh in the 1998 USPGA. In other words, he's a player who can make a mark in the Majors.

For good measure, Mayfair has also won in Chicago before. That came in 1995 when he won the Western Open, a victory which helped him finish second on the US Money List.

Given these impressive credentials, why is he 250/1?

It's partly due to Billy being an unfashionable player. He hasn't, you might say, got film star looks.

It's also due to his current form. A first round 80 gave him no chance of making the cut in last week's FBR Capital Open and he was probably going through the motions in his second round 73.

But prior to that he had made his previous six cuts and finished tied 21st in both the Wachovia Championship and the Colonial, where he closed with a pair of 68s.

That's better form than he showed before last year's fifth place so I'll back Mayfair to carefully plot his way round and get right into contention.

Paddy Power, along with Skybet and BetDirect, go 1/4 the first six so the 250/1 is an attractive proposition.