These are our 'five to follow' this week.

By Dave Tindall

Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	8pts win Phil Mickelson at 16/1 (Chandler).	A serious challenger in every US major these days. The left-hander has to win one soon.
	1.5pts e.w. Jim Furyk at 66/1 with sports.co.uk (1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Has served his apprenticeship in majors and coming into form.
	1.5pts e.w. Shigeki Maruyama at 66/1 generally available (1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Twice a winner in America in last two seasons and went close at Open last month.
	1pt e.w. Bob Estes at 80/1 with Sportingbet (1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Has improved dramatically in last few seasons and has good USPGA record.
	1pt e.w. Robert Allenby at 100/1 with Paddy Power (1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Like all our selections, the Aussie has the same profile as recent USPGA winners.
SPREADS
	2pts sell Phil Mickelson's finishing position at 23 (Sporting).	Has finished third, seventh, second, third and second in last five US majors.

The magic formula for picking the winner of the USPGA – locating a majorless 30-something with a bunch of US Tour wins – worked yet again 12 months ago when David Toms took glory at the Atlanta Athletic Club.

And taking a totally formulaic approach to the season's final major could be no bad thing.

Whereas the other three majors tend to produce specialists, it's hard to come up with a name that challenges year in, year out for the USPGA. In fact you'll find at least one unexpected missed cut beside every top player apart from Tiger Woods (Tiger, of course, has never missed a cut in a major since turning pro).

So with no-one leaping off the page for this week's showdown at Hazeltine, we will stick to the formula which has thrown up Nick Price (1992), Paul Azinger (1993), Steve Elkington (1995), Mark Brooks (1996), Davis Love (1997), Vijay Singh (1998) and Toms (2001).

We can refine our search for players with the right USPGA winners' profile by remembering two other factors.

Firstly, don't back a European. Since the tournament switched to a strokeplay format in 1958 no European has had his name engraved on the Wanamaker Trophy.

And secondly, a recent win is a necessity. All the previous 'formula' winners (from Azinger to Toms) had recorded a US Tour win in the same season as their USPGA win or the season before. Therefore players only qualify if they've won on the US Tour in 2001 and/or 2002.

This throws up a not-so-shortlist of:

Phil Mickelson, Jim Furyk, Bob Estes, Shigeki Maruyama, Chris DiMarco, Mike Weir, Robert Allenby, Scott Verplank, Scott McCarron and Rocco Mediate.

So how can we whittle this list of 10 down?

There's a feeling, with Hazeltine measuring a mighty 7,360 yards, that the tournament could turn into another big-hitters' shootout, similar to the one at Bethpage Black in the US Open two months ago.

But there are subtle differences. Only three of Hazeltine's par fours are over 450 yards (Bethpage Black had six) and most of the added length has been attached to the par fives of which three could be unreachable in two.

And all we heard at Atlanta 12 months was length, length, length and yet the tournament was won by Toms who finished 96th on the 2001 driving distance stats.

Toms compensated for his slight lack of yards with great iron play, good course management and a razor sharp short game so the shorter hitters will probably have to be in great form to make a mark this year.

However, even if it rains (the forecast says it could do over the weekend) and allows the shorter hitters to hold the greens with long irons, a certain amount of length is required at Hazeltine. So the first of our 11 to be crossed off is Scott Verplank.

Verplank is 191st in the driving stats and hitting it an average 266 yards off the tee will surely not be enough.

Others outside the top 100 in driving distance who aren't in the greatest of form are Mike Weir and Rocco Mediate. They too are eliminated.

Scott McCarron and Chris DiMarco probably hit it far enough but McCarron hasn't managed a top 15 since April while DiMarco, despite a decent performance last week, hasn't been in contention for some time.

That leaves five players: Mickelson, Furyk, Estes, Maruyama and Allenby. And with respective prices of 16s, 66/1, 66/1, 80/1 and 100/1 we can afford to put all five in our staking plan.

Furyk would have been eliminated on the grounds of short-hitting but he could just produce something special this week. Furyk was best known for his sheer weight of top fives and tens around four or five years ago but in the last couple of years he's become a player who lies dormant before suddenly producing a spectacular win.

And with the birth of his first child at the end of June he could just be in the ideal frame of mind to send down a big, big challenge.

He's served his apprenticeship in the majors with a host of top finishes so he won't panic if he's in the mix on Sunday.

Mickelson's quest for a first major continues at a venue where he played the US Open as an amateur in 1991. He was so close last year when shooting the second lowest four-round total in major championship history. Unfortunately for him Toms shot the lowest.

That sums up Mickelson's luck in the majors and although he's shot himself in the foot plenty of times there are others where he just hasn't had the breaks. Lefty did very little wrong at Atlanta last year and also at the US Open in June when second to Woods.

Although his inability to get the job done attracts scorn in some quarters, I think it would be great for golf if Mickelson's all-out-attack approach prevailed this week. At odds of 16/1 he's an attractive price to get the monkey off his back.

Estes became a cult favourite of mine in the Open where he justified the decision to sell his finishing position by finishing tied 18th.

He was only four off winner Ernie Els at Muirfield and on familiar US soil he could go closer or even win it.

Estes is no longer a puny hitter so has the necessary length and three wins in the last two years underlines the improvement in a career that had produced just one previous win on Tour and that way back in 1994.

Even more encouragingly he has an excellent record in the USPGA with three top sixes (1993, 1995 and 1999). There's plenty of evidence that Estes could be this year's Mark Brooks (1996 winner) – a low-key in-form US player with some decent major performances under his belt.

A player with very similar credentials – but far more flamboyant – is Shigeki Maruyama.

The Japanese golfer with the permanent smile has two US Tour wins to his name in the last couple of seasons and is the man most likely to give Asia its first major winner.

He very nearly did it at the Open and this looks like another good chance. Maruyama's wins, a victory for K.J. Choi and the thrilling performance of Shingo Katayama in last year's USPGA have all contributed to a collective increase of confidence in the Asian players.

And Maruyama, who has finished in the top 16 in all three 2002 majors, could be the man to benefit. Take the 80/1.

Finally, Allenby could make up for the near misses of Steve Elkington and Stuart Appleby in the Open by giving Australia its first major winner since 1995.

Two US Tour wins in 2001 and another two in 2000 shows that Allenby is a proven winner on American courses and although his major performances have often been disappointing he must have a good one in him soon.

A tied 12th in the US Open at Bethpage Black two months ago was one of his better efforts and it won't make much improvement to get amongst the places. He looks well overpriced at 100/1.

As for Woods, despite his three-shot win at the Buick last week, he clearly wasn't hitting the ball anywhere near his best and looks vulnerable to anyone at the top of their game. There was no such player last week but surely given the calibre of this week's field someone will emerge.

By winning the 1999 and 2000 USPGAs he broke the sequence of majorless 30-somethings, but Woods looks poor value to do it a third time even if the length of the course could play into his hands.

The most likely European to spoil the US party surely has to be Sergio Garcia with Padraig Harrington a close-up second.

Garcia's long, straight driving will serve him well here and he's been knocking at the door in the majors for some time.

Harrington too has had a fantastic season in the majors although his inability to even get his head in front in regular European Tour events must makes him an each-way shot only at this stage in his career.

Other obvious big names that have to be mentioned are Davis Love and David Duval. As big-hitting major winners, they will be popular with punters but the wins have dried up for both in recent seasons and to be honest I prefer backing them in other majors.

I'm not rushing to back Ernie Els or defending champion Toms either. Toms has the dual distraction of being defending champion and playing alongside Woods for the first two days and Els too will have to deal with the Tiger-bandwagon for the first 36 holes.

As a confidence player, Els could produce something special but may just rest on his laurels after his Open triumph. He certainly wasn't a factor in the 1994 and 1997 USPGAs having won his US Open titles just a couple of months earlier.

Retief Goosen could be a bigger threat even though he hasn't quite got back the golden touch he's carried for most of the last 12 months.

If we ignored the European factor in the magic USPGA formula then Colin Montgomerie would surely come into contention. Monty lost a play-off in 1995 and should like the course. If he can avoid the inconsistency which has crept into his game he could raise a few eyebrows this week.

On the spreads I have to be with Mickelson again and highly recommend a sell of his finishing position at 23 with Sporting.

In the last five US majors the left-hander has finished third, seventh, second, third and second.