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Week commencing May 5

Promotion tips - published Friday

8pts Crystal Palace to win promotion at 2/1 (Betfred)

Before we go any further into the whys and wherefores of this bet, it should be pointed out that the size of the stake is purely down to the fact that religious Net Gains followers already have a ticket for Hull City at 28/1 neatly tucked away in their back pocket. The momentum generated at Crystal Palace in recent weeks hasn�t escaped the attention of the layers and odds of 2/1 about fifth-placed finishers might not be many punters� idea of value. But there is something fresh about the Eagles that cannot be matched by any of the other three sides in the Championship play-off market. Watford, Bristol City and Hull have all had confidence bruised by their failure to cross the finishing line in the race for automatic promotion and the psychological high ground now rests firmly within the confines of Neil Warnock�s dressing room at Selhurst Park. Warnock is a seasoned play-off campaigner with a remarkable record of success in end-of-season knockout matches. He has won promotion via this route on no fewer than four occasions and he clearly has a special way of motivating players without ever compromising their sense of focus. The Eagles face Bristol City in their two-legged semi-final and they will be happy in the knowledge that they outclassed the Robins over two matches during the regular season. By hedging in this manner, we now put ourselves in the healthy position of having sewn up more than 60 per cent of the market and we stand to collect a minimum 24 points from an outlay of nine should either the two favourites oblige.

4pts Rochdale to win promotion at 11/4 (bet365)

Rochdale enter the League Two play-offs unbeaten in 10 matches and, unlike their semi-final opponents Darlington, they can approaching the next two games without any hang-ups about injuries or the mental scars of missing out on automatic promotion. Indeed, a closer look at the stats makes you wonder how Dale never forced their way into the reckoning for the top three places because it�s difficult to pinpoint where the Lancastrians� weaknesses lie. Keith Hill�s men have scored more goals than all of their play-off rivals, collected more points in big matches against the top teams and rescued more points from losing positions. So the one thing you can be sure of is they will be prepared for the rollercoaster on the horizon and won�t be short of belief in their own ability to see the job through regardless of whatever circumstances they might be faced with. Hill has been a breath of fresh air in the Spotland hot-seat since taking over from Steve Parkin in December 2006 and his effervescent style of management is likely to keep the Dale players in a relaxed frame of mind should they please the romantics and make it all the way to Wembley in their centenary season. Much has been made of the fact that the club has not been promoted in 34 years but most Spotland regulars well above that age will tell you that this is easily the most exciting team they have seen in all of that time. With Wycombe already onside at ante-post odds of 4/1, it could also pay dividends to side with the favourites in the other side of the draw.

Weekend tips - published Friday

2pts Wycombe to draw with Stockport at 9/4 (Betfred, Sky Bet)

Stockport boss Jim Gannon has stirred things up ahead of Sunday evening�s League Two semi-final first-leg clash against seventh-placed Wycombe at Adams Park. Earlier this week, the Irishman described the Wycombe players as fearful when the two sides came head-to-head in a goalless draw on the same pitch at the end of March. The implication being that the Chairboys are mentally scarred by a 6-0 defeat at Edgeley Park back in December. However, it�s possible that Gannon remains frustrated because the stalemate in Buckinghamshire ultimately cost his side the opportunity to rack up a record 10 straight league wins. Victory in that game would have kept the Hatters in the driving seat for automatic promotion going into the final week of the campaign but back-to-back defeats against MK Dons and Barnet have now disrupted the impressive momentum they were generating. Gannon�s comments could backfire if opposing boss Paul Lambert chooses to pin the quote up in the home dressing room as a motivational tool. The Chairboys are no mugs at this level and they are by no means flattered by the company they are keeping in this play-off quartet. The six-goal thrashing in Cheshire was undoubtedly their lowest point of the campaign but defeat in that game � if not the margin of it � can be excused by the atrocious conditions that the two teams were forced to play in. However, the home side have struggled for goal power since the departure of Jermaine Easter and it�s likely that Wanderers will set themselves up to nick it by the odd goal ensuring another tight and potentially goalless encounter.

2pts Watford to draw with Hull City at 9/4 (Betfred, Sky Bet)

Watford have drawn nine of their last 14 games and while the Hornets, in spite of their dreadful recent slump, finished the campaign with the division�s best away record, we should still expect Hull to be reasonably happy if they take the tie back to the KC Stadium all-square. The Tigers have tasted defeat in each of their last two away games when the situation in the automatic promotion race dictated they approached those games in search of maximum points. But the necessity will be different at Vicarage Road and it might be more to Phil Brown�s liking if he sets his team up in a way that, first and foremost, deals with the home side�s physical threat. Brown will be well aware that confidence is fragile in the Watford camp and he knows that the key to avoiding defeat against Aidy Boothroyd�s men is to prevent them from winning any cheap free-kicks or throw-ins in your own half of the field. The battle to occupy possession in opposing territory at the expense of genuine attacking purpose might not make for a particularly exciting spectacle but it works because, without the gift of set pieces in dangerous areas, the Hornets carry very little threat. As bad as Watford�s recent home record is, the last thing Brown wants is to inadvertently generate a highly-charged atmosphere by allowing the hosts to assert any kind of sustained pressure on Boaz Myhill�s goal. He will be confident of finishing the job on Humberside in a similar manner to the three-goal thrashing they handed out to the same opponents at the end of March and we should expect a pretty turgid first leg encounter as a result.

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