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SANDOWN – MARCH 12

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2009: £29.70
2008: £34.40
2006: £50.90
2005: £163.20
2004: £22.10
2003: £1,637.70
2002: £276.60
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (7 years) £316.37
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £197.08 (9 meetings); in 2007 (NH): £78.24 (9 meetings); in 2008: £208.02 (30 meetings in total NH & flat); in 2009: £194.47 (9 NH meetings)

2.20 Jamie Snowdon has ridden the winner of this race in three of the last four years so Jamie (now a trainer) should know the score relating to what is required to win this contest. Jamie saddles his five-year-old Red Ransom gelding MISTA ROSSA and though I could not bring myself to back the stable representative from a win perspective, MISTA ROSSA will be included in my toteplacepot mix. More logical winners in the field include KINGS TROOP and JORDAN’S LIGHT.

'Favourite factor': Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 11 renewals. Ten of the 12 jollies have reached the frame.

2.55 The seven winners to date have carried weights ranging between 10-11 and 11-9, as have 13 of the 18 horses that have secured toteplacepot positions. Only KING BREX qualifies via the weight stats on this occasion and the seven-year-old probably has last year’s winner DOMINICAN MONK to beat. These win-only events have a habit of turning form upside down (via lack of pace in many races) though this pair should dominate the finish on this occasion. VINMIX DE BESSY and INDIANA GOLD could yet be included in my permutation, however, whereby I’ll have a look at the complete picture come sun-up and make my decision form there.

'Favourite factor': Only two of the eight favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner).

3.30 OAKFIELD LEGEND came to the races last year following a lengthy break but that did not stop the Midnight Legend gelding from landing some hefty wagers en route to the winner being returned as the slightly surprising favourite. Money would be a decent indication on his chance of 'following up', while the same pilot (Sally Randell) has been booked to ride. SCOTS DRAGOON and GAORA LANE both flatter to deceive these days with neither raider winning as many races as should be the case. It’s impossible to leave this pair out of the equation at the time of writing however.

'Favourite factor': Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals, though just two of the other seven favourites have finished in the frame during the last 12 years.

4.05 Seven of the nine winners during the last 11 years have carried weights of 11-2 or more and although ‘only’ six horses are eliminated via the stats, all help is appreciated. Six-year-olds come to the gig on a hat-trick, whereby PINEROCK, OUTLAW TIM and PRIORS GLEN (the trio also qualify via the weight trends) will do for me against the field. APACHE CHANT (qualifies via the vintage stats but not the weight figures) receives the reserve nomination.

'Favourite factor': Just one market leader (alongside two joint favourites) has won during the study period, while five of the 12 jollies have finished in the frame.

4.40 Back Nine is not the force of old and a watching brief is the order of the day until (if) the 13-year-old is galvanised back into winning form. HE’S THE GAFFER was given a blow between the flags 12 days ago which should put the 10-year-old spot on for this encounter, while VAN NESS ran well enough here at Sandown over a shorter trip last time out to suggest that this event is within range.

'Favourite factor': Four clear market leaders have won alongside one joint favourite and one co-favourite (of three) via eight renewals. The biggest-priced winner to date was returned at 4/1. Eight of the 11 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. 　

5.15 Nicky Henderson has won three of the seven contests to date and LUSH LIFE holds a leading chance on behalf of the stable. That said, Nicky also saddles his dual winner ZAZAMIX who attempts to secure a 50 per cent strike rate. Tony Carroll has a yard in decent nick at the time of writing whereby GENERAL SIMIRA is offered up as the speculative each-way call in the toteplacepot finale.

'Favourite factor': Eight of the 10 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners).

AYR:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2009: £2,969.50
2008: £806.40
2007: £106.90
2006: £160.50
2005: £587.10
2004: £1,251.60
2003: £69.70
2002: £20.50
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (8 years) £746.53
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £617.12 (13 meetings); in 2007 (NH): £209.42 (9 meetings); in 2008: £265.56 (24 meetings in total - NH & flat); in 2009: £1,027.87 (11 NH meetings)

LEICESTER:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2009: £20.50
2008: £162.10
2007: £38.50
2006: £88.50
2005: £100.70
2004: £131.50
2003: £10.20
2002: £577.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (8 years) £141.14
Average toteplacepot dividend at Leicester (NH) in 2006: £146.52 (11 meetings); in 2007 (NH): £136.31 (9 meetings); in 2008: £270.65 (30 meetings in total - NH & flat); in 2009: £70.23 (7 NH meetings) 　

WINCANTON:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2009: £49.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £1,251.95 (9 meetings); in 2007: £189.39 (16 meetings); in 2008: £68.14 (16 meetings); in 2009: £363.38 (16 meetings)

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2009: £17.50
2008: £14.90
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £16.20
Average toteplacepot dividend at Wolverhampton in 2006: £379.47 (111 meetings); in 2007: £499.42 (120 meetings); in 2008: £447.58 (100 meetings); in 2009: £505.07 (94 meetings) 　

2010 average toteplacepot dividends — A-Z racecourse guide (up to and including Wednesday March 10):

A/W venues:
Kempton (£379.97--19 meetings)
Lingfield (£334.62--29 meetings)
Southwell (£206.95--25 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£287.42--26 meetings)

N/H venues:
Ascot (£255.85—-2 meetings)
Ayr (£83.20—-1 meeting)
Bangor (£250.50—-3 meetings)
Catterick (£236.44—-5 meetings)
Cheltenham (£670.35—-2 meetings)
Chepstow (£2,181.40—-2 meetings)
Doncaster (£37178—-5 meetings)
Exeter (£16.50—-3 meetings)
Fakenham (£42.20—-2 meetings)
Ffos Las (£5,044.93—-4 meetings)
Folkestone (£209.40—-2 meetings)
Fontwell (£196.75—-4 meetings)
Haydock (£565.35—-2 meetings)
Hereford (£423.70—-2 meetings)
Huntingdon (£592.46—-5 meetings)
Kelso (£347.35—-2 meetings)
Leicester (£282.33—-3 meetings)
Lingfield (£384.70—-2 meetings)
Ludlow (£199.37—-3 meetings)
Kempton (£205.50—-4 meetings)
Market Rasen (£124.65—-2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£337.93—-3 meetings)
Newbury (£140.25—-4 meetings)
Newcastle (£136.55—-4 meetings)
Plumpton (£235.12—-5 meetings)
Sandown (£44.70—-2 meetings)
Sedgefield (£197.20—-3 meetings)
Southwell (£370.37—-3 meetings)
Stratford (£93.90—-1 meeting)
Taunton (£69.07—-4 meetings)
Towcester (£323.65—-2 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£214.15—-2 meetings)
Warwick (£691.67—-3 meetings)
Wetherby (£19.70—-1 meeting)
Wincanton (£702.06—-2 meetings)

Mixed flat & NH meetings:
Southwell (£123.50—-1 meeting)