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SANDOWN – JULY 3RD

Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2008: £30.90
2007: £159.60
2006: £1,355.70
2005: £655.30
2004: £661.90
2003: £111.20
2002: £64.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £501.30
Average toteplacepot dividend at Sandown in 2006: £355.06 (18 meetings)—in 2007: £181.72 (18 meetings)--in 2008: £208.02 (30 meetings in total NH & flat) 　

2.20 Eight of the last ten winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less and course and distance winners THE JOBBER (15) and DAZED AND AMAZED (14) are well drawn and should figure prominently from the ‘superior‘ sector of the handicap. Frankie Dettori’s mount CANADIAN DANEHILL (12) only sits sixteen ounces above the weight barrier and must enter calculations, whilst SHARPENED EDGE (10) and EQUULEAS PICTOR (7) are others to peruse overnight.

'favourite factor': Fifteen favourites (including joint and co market leaders) have gone to post in the last twelve years and just one favourite has reached the frame during the period (no winners)! 'Draw factor' (five furlongs): 14-12-8 (11 ran-good to firm) 9-11-2 (12 ran-soft) 12-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm) 1-4-2-10 (16 ran-good) 9-3-2 (11 ran-good to soft) 10-4-8 (12 ran-good) 3-2-4 (8 ran-good to soft) 7-1-10 (11 ran-good to firm) 5-11-9 (14 ran-good) 8-4-3 (10 ran-good) 6-9-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

2.50 I offered DI STEFANO a great chance in the ‘Windsor Castle’ seventeen days ago and nothing was finishing better when Mick Channon’s Bahamian Bounty colt finished third at 25/1 and this tougher ‘five’ should suit admirably. This event is well contested however, especially with the likes of Tom Dascombe’s pair of debut winners in opposition, namely MDAWEE and BRAMBLEBERRY. This trio should snare at least a couple of toteplacepot positions between them in this ‘dead eight’ contest.

'favourite factor': Six of the last thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners). 'Draw factor' (five furlongs): 5-2 (7 ran-good to firm) 1-4-5 (8 ran-soft) 9-1-4 (8 ran-good to firm) 5-2-3 (8 ran-good) 1-3 (5 ran-good to soft) 6-7 (7 ran-good) 2-5 (5 ran-good to soft) 3-5 (6 ran-good) 6-5-7 (8 ran-good) 10-6-2 (10 ran-good) 1-6 (6 ran-good to soft)

3.25 In Sir Michael Stoute’s absence (Michael has won this event three times in recent years) the way has been left open for Richard Hannon (BEYOND THE CITY and CITY OF ROME) and Mark Johnston (PYTHEAS) to slug out another juvenile event over this seven furlong trip. The two trainers have shared four of the last six renewals and with a run already under his belt, I guess that Mark’s beaten favourite PYTHEAS holds centre stage. The Seeking The Gold colt was beaten a short head on his debut at Redcar, and both BEYOND THE CITY and CITY OF ROME might need to be nearly as special as last year’s winner Zacinto to score at the first time of asking. DREAMSPEED is a half brother to Dream Eater and will represent Andrew Balding to good effect if the Barathea colt is half as good as the St Leger 2YO Stakes winner.

'favourite factor': Seven favourites have won during the last twelve years (including six of the last eight), whilst nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process. 'Draw factor' (seven furlongs): 12-5-7 (10 ran-good to firm) 10-7-2 (10 ran-good to soft) 9-11-7 (10 ran-good to firm) 4-13-11 (14 ran-good) 1-5 (7 ran-good to soft) 5-7 (7 ran-good) 2 (4 ran-good to soft) 2 (4 ran-good to firm) 8-10-12 (12 ran-good) 8-2-1 (8 ran-good to firm) 5-7-1 (10 ran-good) 　

4.00 I’m totally baffled by the absence of a three-year-old in the line up, the vintage having won five of the seven renewals to date with junior raiders also having been conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago! Upwards and onwards in positive mode however, by suggesting that TRANQUIL TIGER will represent the ever popular Henry Cecil to good effect. A winner of four of his last eight races (runner up in two others), the five-year-old is asked to give weight all around but could be up to the task. Rain is forecast for the south east of the country on Friday but as a Selkirk representative, Tom Queally’s mount should be able to adapt to changing conditions if they materialise. Any of the other six horses could win on the best of their form in all honesty whereby I’m going to settle for Henry’s raider for now and revert back to the form book to look for at least one other horse to represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation. Punters could make four selections in this seven runner event and still not make it through to the fifth leg of our favourite wager.

'favourite factor': Three of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (two winners). 'Draw factor' (ten furlongs): 10-6 (6 ran-good to firm) 1-5 (7 ran-good to soft) 6-4 (6 ran-good to firm) 1-4 (6 ran-good) 3-2 (7 ran-good to soft) 5-7-2 (12 ran-good) 2-1 (5 ran-good to soft) 　

4.35 Mark Johnston has won this race three times in the last eleven years and Mark saddles course and distance winner ROAD TO LOVE this time around with ‘Frankie‘ booked to ride the six-year-old. There is nothing more than Mark likes than to successfully raid these southern events except perhaps with a three-year-old receiving weight all around and with ALPEN GLEN also having been declared to represent the stable, Mark has a fine chance of taking the main prize back up north. MOUNTAIN PRIDE might prove to be the pick of the other seven runners on this occasion whereby John Dunlop’s course and distance winner completes my trio against the field. Softening ground might be a worry for connections of JACK DAWKINS bit if the rain fails to arrive, Henry Cecil’s four-year-old Fantastic Light colt would have to brought into the equation. The last four winners have carried weights of 9-1 or more which unfortunately only eliminates one runner on this occasion, though any assistance is appreciated in this event.

'favourite factor': Only six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years (two winners). 'Draw factor' (ten furlongs): 7-6-1 (11 ran-good to firm) 3-4-7 (8 ran-good to soft) 8-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm) 8-9-5 (11 ran-good) 1-3-8 (9 ran-good to soft) 1-13-9 (14 ran-good) 7-2-5 (13 ran-good to soft) 3-7-2 (11 ran-good to firm) 9-6-10-4 (20 ran-good) 2-16-1-20 (20 ran-good) 19-15-20-5 (20 ran-good) 　

5.05 Two of the last four winners of this toteplacepot finale have shouldered ten stones and IT’S A DATE and WAR PARTY take up the challenge this time around. STRATHCAL is a recent dual winner who might best take advantage of the eighteen pounds he receives from the joint top weights.

'favourite factor': Three of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far, though just one joint market leader has claimed the gold medal. 'Draw factor' (fourteen furlongs): 4-10 (7 ran-good to firm) 6-4-5 (9 ran-good to soft) 4-3-1 (9 ran-good to firm) 11-3-8 (11 ran-good) 7-5 (7 ran-good to soft) 7-1-8 (10 ran-good) 　

BEVERLEY: Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2008: £22.10
2007: £64.00
2006: £435.20
2005: £47.40
2004: £11.60
2003: £504.40
2002: £2,560.80
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (5 years) £603.90
Average toteplacepot dividend at Beverley in 2006: £388.92 (18 meetings)—in 2007: £214.08 (20 meetings)--in 2008 £369.81 (20 meetings) 　

HAYDOCK: Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2008: £26.10
2006: £35.80
2005: £173.40
2004: £1,908.10
2003: £31.20
2002: £268.70
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (5 years) £483.44
Average toteplacepot dividend at Haydock in 2006: £357.02 (19 meetings)—in 2007: £295.62 (17 meetings)--in 2008 £383.44 (26 meetings in total NH & flat) 　

SALISBURY: Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2008: £16.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £567.72 (13 meetings)—in 2007: £228.95 (13 meetings)--in 2008 £258.23 (16 meetings) 　

WARWICK: Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:

2008: £10.30
2007: £41.80
2006: £23.00
2005: £267.60
2004: £12.80
2003: £17.20
2002: £292.90
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (5 years) £109.21
Average toteplacepot dividend at Warwick in 2006: £131.01 (14 meetings)—in 2007: £446.90 (14 meetings)--in 2008 £751.90 (22 meetings in total NH & flat) 　

2009 average toteplacepot dividends—A-Z racecourse guide (up to and including Tuesday 30th June)

A/W venues:
Great Leighs (£119.25—4 meetings)
Lingfield (£240.93—42 meetings)
Kempton (£447.19—40 meetings)
Southwell (£231.94-38 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£283.70—47 meetings)

Flat venues:
Ascot (£2,168.28—7 meetings)
Ayr (£101.95—4 meetings)
Bath (£208.29—10 meetings)
Beverley (£337.27—8 meetings)
Brighton (£169.52—9 meetings)
Carlisle (£269.55—4 meetings)
Catterick (£73.96—5 meetings)
Chepstow (£195.78—6 meetings)
Chester (£139.50—6 meetings)
Doncaster (£324.62—11 meetings)
Epsom (£153.27—3 meetings)
Folkestone (£1,148.37—7 meetings)
Goodwood (£515.47—10 meetings)
Hamilton (£156.34—9 meetings)
Haydock (£1,030.02—8 meetings)
Leicester (£138.70—9 meetings)
Lingfield (£371.83—3 meetings)
Musselburgh (£133.58—9 meetings)
Newbury (£2,743.78—7 meetings)
Newcastle (£249.37—10 meetings)
Newmarket (July Course--£4,155.22—4 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile--£488.83—10 meetings)
Nottingham (£4,467.27—8 meetings)
Pontefract (£200.52—7 meetings)
Redcar (£198.33—8 meetings)
Ripon (£999.80—8 meetings)
Salisbury (£187.04—7 meetings)
Sandown (£458.83—6 meetings)
Thirsk (£306.84—8 meetings)
Warwick (£136.43—7 meetings)
Windsor (£279.05—14 meetings)
Yarmouth (£194.79—9 meetings)
York (£360.38—6 meetings)

N/H venues:
Aintree (£1,163.47—6 meetings)
Ascot (£65.23—3 meetings)
Ayr (£1,195.00—9 meetings)
Bangor (£107.93—7 meetings)
Carlisle (£275.78—5 meetings)
Cartmel (£447.57—3 meetings)
Catterick (£2,133.52—4 meetings)
Cheltenham (£780.11—10 meetings)
Chepstow (£135.36—8 meetings)
Doncaster (£1116.06—6 meetings)
Exeter (£528.87—7 meetings)
Fakenham (£370.74—7 meetings)
Folkestone (£120.93—5 meetings)
Fontwell (£252.14—13 meetings)
Ffos Las (£843.30—1 meeting)
Haydock (£262.25—4 meetings)
Hereford (£421.83—8 meetings)
Hexham (£391.99—9 meetings)
Huntingdon (£134.02—8 meetings)
Kelso (£230.05—8 meetings)
Kempton (£535.41—7 meetings)
Leicester (£52.85—2 meetings)
Lingfield (£70.70—2 meetings)
Ludlow (£446.25—8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£130.48—8 meetings)
Musselburgh (£157.86—4 meetings)
Newbury (£44.28—5 meetings)
Newcastle (£353.54—5 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£138.38—10 meetings)
Perth (£92.36—6 meetings)
Plumpton (£434.50—8 meetings)
Sandown (£199.26—6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£134.45—9 meetings)
Southwell (£1,863.33—9 meetings)
Stratford (£294.39—9 meetings)
Taunton (£84.79—9 meetings)
Towcester (£506.58—11 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£180.31—12 meetings)
Warwick (£111.30—4 meetings)
Wetherby (£219.87—7 meetings)
Wincanton (£277.16—10 meetings)
Worcester (£148.94—5 meetings)

Mixed flat meetings (Turf & A/W):
Lingfield (£103.49—7 meetings)

Mixed meetings (NH & flat):
Haydock (£443.40—1 meeting)
Sandown (£66.60—1 meeting)

The average toteplacepot dividend this year up until the end of racing on Sunday June 30 stood at £457.35 (713 meetings)