Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 5pm the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.
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SOUTHWELL - FEBRUARY 9
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| SOUTHWELL SELECTIONS |
Race 1 (1.50pm) |
4 (Bright Sparky), 6 (Jiggalong) & 7 (Easy Wonder)
|
Race
2
(2.20pm) |
3 (Turf Time), 2 (Annia Galeria) & 1 (Billie Jean) |
Race
3
(2.50pm) |
2 (Monte Major) & 5 (Fasliyanne) |
Race
4
(3.20pm) |
4 (Loveinthesand) & 6 (My Mandy) |
Race
5
(3.50pm) |
6 (Onceaponatime), 3 (Harlech Castle) & 2 (Esprit De Midas) |
Race
6
(4.20pm) |
2 (Always Dixie), 3 (Little Meadow) & 4 (Hathaway) |
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2009: £4.60
2008: £24.80
2007: £441.30
2006: £17.40
2005: £59.60
2004: £100.70
2003: £948.20
2002: £5.90
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (8 years) £200.31
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £1,187.68 (66 meetings) in 2007: £332.76 (49 meetings); in 2008: £ 249.22 (79 meetings in total - NH & flat); in 2009: £212.33 (63 A/W meetings)
1.50 Regular readers will know which way the land lies in this amateur event, whereby the jockeys are every bit as important as the horses in my humble opinion. JIGGALONG and EASY WONDER should figure prominently with decent pilots booked. That said, Mick Easterby saddled the winners of both divisions of this contest last year, one of which was BRIGHT SAPRKY who has been declared to defend one half of the crown.
'Favourite factor': The three favourites have snared one gold and two bronze medals to date.
2.20 All four winners have carried weights of 8-8 or more in this three-year-old handicap event which basically splits the 'dead eight' field in half. The pick of the relevant quartet who emerge from the 'superior weight' stats, might prove to be TURF TIME, BILLIE JEAN and ANNIA GALERIA.
'Favourite factor': Three of the four favourites have won to date, although the other market leaders finished out with the washing behind a 25/1 winner.
2.50 Derek Shaw has saddled two winners (8/1 and 6/1) at Southwell this year which might allow 7lb claimer Sean Palmer to secure his third winner on ride number 42 to date. Sean will get the leg up on course-and-distance winner MONTE MAJOR and connections might have most to fear from FASLIYANNE who represents Kevin Ryan who has saddled three of his last 13 runners to winning effect.
'Favourite factor': Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via two renewals thus far (one winner).
3.20 Nine of the last available 12 toteplacepot positions have been secured by three-year-olds whereby Mark Johnston's Footstepsinthesand colt LOVEINTHESAND might score under in form stable jockey Joe Fanning. Joe has ridden seven winners since the end of January and his emergence/improvement in recent months reminds me of the way Jason Weaver burst onto the scene all those years ago. MY MANDY can be relied upon to be there or thereabouts for much of the journey and could reward forecast punters if Mark's raider does the business for yours truly.
'Favourite factor': Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame (two winners).
3.50 Both winners have carried weights of less than nine stones and the trend might continue via HARLECH CASTLE and ONCEUPONATIME. That said. Jim Boyle's runners (HARLECH CASTLE in this instance) have struggled of late whereby ONCEUPONATIME could register his fifth victory. ESPRIT DE MIDAS receives the reserve nomination on this this occasion.
'Favourite factor': All three favourites have finished in the money (including both winners) to date.
4.20 Only one trainer (surprise surprise) has saddled more than one three-year-old handicap winner at Southwell this year as Mark Johnston attempts to secure his fifth winner via ALWAYS DIXIE this time around. Mark has saddled 11 3-Y-O winners in this sector since the turn of the year whereby the Lucky Story filly is the call, especially as the February foal is blinkered for the first time. Horses towards the top of the handicap tend to fare best but in this poor grade, anything can happen. I'll opt for LITTLE MEADOW and HATHAWAY to offer most resistance to the selection.
'Favourite factor': All three favourites have finished in the money (including both winners) to date.
MARKET RASEN:
Average toteplacepot dividend at Market Rasen in 2006: £209.28 (21 meetings):; in 2007: £124.24 (18 meetings); in 2008: £322.97 (18 meetings); in 2009: £1,221.26 (19 meetings)
SEDGEFIELD:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2008: £141.00
2006: £69.50
2005: £537.10
2004: £32.50
2003: £307.50
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (5 years) £217.52
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £172.23 (19 meetings) in 2007: £454.76 (17 meetings); in 2008: £252.16 (17 meetings); in 2009: £130.56 (15 meetings)
2010 average toteplacepot dividends - A-Z racecourse guide (up to and including Sunday February 7):
A/W venues:
Kempton (£571.60--10 meetings)
Lingfield (£166.6--16 meetings)
Southwell (£174.17--16 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£295.88--14 meetings)
N/H venues:
Ascot (£480.30--1 meeting)
Bangor (£302.70--1 meeting)
Catterick (£192.95--2 meeting)
Cheltenham (£670.35--2 meetings)
Chepstow (£25.70--1 meeting)
Doncaster (138.50--2 meetings)
Exeter (£410.50--1 meeting)
Fakenham (£45.40--1 meeting)
Ffos Las (£274.45--2 meetings)
Folkestone (£329.00--1 meeting)
Fontwell (£240.40--2 meetings)
Haydock (£1,051.10--1 meeting)
Huntingdon (£141.75--2 meetings)
Leicester (£226.80--1 meeting)
Lingfield (£363.50--1 meeting)
Kempton (£110.80--1 meeting)
Market Rasen (£196.90--1 meeting)
Musselburgh (£378.70--2 meetings)
Newbury (£92.70--1 meeting)
Newcastle (£68.55--2 meetings)
Plumpton (£193.20--3 meetings)
Sandown (£75.30--1 meeting)
Sedgefield (£66.70--1 meeting)
Southwell (£209.60--1 meeting)
Taunton (£105.80--2 meetings)
Towcester (£323.65--2 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£412.80--1 meeting)
Warwick (£152.90--1 meeting)
Wetherby (£19.70--1 meeting)
Wincanton (£702.06--2 meetings)