Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 5pm the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.
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ASCOT – MAY 10TH
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £27.60
2006: £458.30
2004: £421.60
2003: £792.90
2002: £52.10
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (5 years) £350.50
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £571.78 (14 meetings)—in 2007: £806.31 (16 meetings)
1.10 Turn the clock back two years ago or so and YOUNG MICK would have to be the selection on these terms, though Robert Winston’s mount failed to reach previous heights last season following a long lay off. The Margason yard boasts a 4/10 strike rate with their older horses here at Ascot in the last five years however, and the course and distance winner is not entirely ruled out of the equation at the overnight stage. Michael Stoute saddled his one-time Derby hope Mountain High to win this contest last year and this year’s raider SPANISH MOON fits a similar profile. LION SANDS and REGAL FLUSH are others to peruse over your favourite late night tipple.
'Favourite factor': One of the two market leaders secured a toteplacepot when the 8/13 market leader landed the spoils twelve months ago.
1.45 Four-year-olds have claimed four of the six available toteplacepot positions, whilst horses returned at 9/1 or less have secured five win and place medals. JAMBORETTA was a half decent winner of a competitive event at Sandown first time up this year and it might take a highly progressive horse to beat the Danehill filly here. A toteplacepot position certainly looks up for grabs at the very least. FRAGRANCY was a consistent type last season and looks sure to pay her way again, whilst the dark horse in the contest is Jeremy Noseda’s raider down at the foot of the list, namely VAIRHONA. I’m not at all surprised that the Spectrum filly has been dropped down in trip having travelled really well at this distance before folding like a pack of cards on soft ground at Doncaster.
'Favourite factor': Both market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (one winner).
'Draw factor' (eight furlongs):
2-8-6 (13 ran-good to soft)
6-7-4 (9 ran-good to firm)
2.20 This opening leg of Saturday’s Scoop6 wager is as competitive as ever and I tend to look towards middle to high numbers in this Victoria Cup event. That said, I would offer WE’LL COME and MIDDLEMARCH if you are hoping for the 1999 result to be repeated when low numbers were the order of the day. Back over towards the far side of the track, the likes of DABBERS RIDGE, PRESUMTIVE and ORCHARD SUPREME catch the eye. Four of the five horses mentioned in despatches (Dabbers Ridge apart) hail from the right end of the handicap according to the stats, as seven of the eight winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less.
'Favourite factor': Four of the nine market leaders have reached the frame since 1999 (two winners).
'Draw factor' (seven furlongs—Lingfield’s renewal not included):
14-3-27-28 (28 ran-good to soft)
12-5-7-15 (20 ran-good to firm)
16-20-6-12 (20 ran-good to firm)
10-14-16-20 (28 ran-good)
16-5-11-6 (28 ran-good to soft)
22-2-17-16 (21 ran-good to soft)
2-8-9-7 (18 ran-good)
2.50 Jeremy Noseda has only saddled one juvenile this year until now, though Waffle scored in impressive style at Leicester a fortnight ago and if his Invincible Spirit filly GLAMOROUS SPIRIT is in the same league as Waffle, Ryan Moore’s mount might take the beating here. That said, the April foal lines up against a Richard Hannon (talking) juvenile ROLY BOY who should run well with the Hannon team back in form from a two-year-old perspective. Richard has saddled six juvenile winners at the time of writing, with thirteen of his twenty five two-year-old raiders having finished ‘in the three’ to date. DABBER’S RIDGE brings experience to the party and Barry Hills has his team in good nick which is always the case at this time of year, particularly during ‘Chester week’.
'Favourite factor': Three of the front four in the market finished in the frame in the inaugural running of this event twelve months ago. The 100/30 favourite finished second last year, flanked by runners sent off at 11/2 and 9/2.
'Draw factor' Five furlongs):
9-4-1 (11 ran-good to soft)
3.20 James Fanshawe boasts an 8/36 record with his older horses here at Ascot which is a perfectly acceptable percentage given the competitive nature of these races at the Berkshire venue. James saddles the race fit BUSTER HYVONEN and I would be surprised if Oscar Urbina’s mount finishes outside of the toteplacepot positions. SILVER SUITOR holds an obvious chance, whilst the going has come right for GEE DEE NEN who could run well at half decent odds on his seasonal debut. The Mister Bailey’s gelding has finished ‘in the three’ fourteen times via twenty five starts, claiming the gold medal on four occasions.
'Favourite factor': One of the two market leaders reached the frame (without winning). All six win and placed horses were returned at 12/1 or less, whilst the ten runners sent off at odds of 14/1 via two renewals to date finished well down the field.
3.55 Clive Cox has his team in decent form now, and it’s worth noting that his raider JIMMY STYLES was only beaten a head on his debut in June and the four-year-old is expected to figure prominently at the first time of asking this term. RAINBOW MIRAGE has not won for a long time now (June 2006 to be precise), but with Ed McMahon’s stable coming into form, the four-year-old could run well at rewarding odds. BORDER MUSIC has won on his seasonal debut for the past two years and Andrew Balding’s Selkirk gelding completes my trio against the field.
'Favourite factor': Last year’s 7/2 favourite landed the spoils in the inaugural running of the contest, leading home placed horses priced at 16/1-40/1-16/1.
'Draw factor' (six furlongs):
24-23-13-26 (21 ran-soft)
HAYDOCK:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £140.70
2006: £27.40
2005: £535.40
2004: £247.10
2003: £354.80
2002: £14.70
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £220.02
HEXHAM:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £1,366.50
2006: £20.00
2005: £12.20
2004: £170.80
2003: £512.60
2002: £109.50
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £365.27
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £533.85 (12 meetings)—in 2007: £215.67 (14 meetings)
LINGFIELD:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £230.10
2006: £64.50
2005: £171.10
2004: £120.20
2003: £765.40
2002: £97.00
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £241.38
NOTTINGHAM:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £128.80
2006: £175.50
2005: £46.00
2004: £594.60
2003: £260.90
2002: £123.80
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £221.60
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £1,098.70 (20 meetings)—in 2007: £167.32 (17 meetings)
THIRSK:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £104.30
2006: £823.20
2005: £24.50
2004: £437.20
2003: £25.60
2002: £10.20
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (6 years) £237.50
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £207.45 (13 meetings)—in 2007: £155.95 (15 meetings)
WARWICK:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2007: £130.70
2006: £256.00
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £193.35
Average toteplacepot dividend at in 2006: £131.01 (14 meetings)—in 2007: £446.90 (14 meetings)
2008 average toteplacepot dividends--A-Z racecourse guide (up to and including Thursday May 8)
A/W venues:
Great Leighs (£97.46—5 meetings)
Lingfield (£154.36—35 meetings)
Kempton (£243.70—44 meetings)
Southwell (£159.10—36 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£142.97—54 meetings)
NH courses:
Aintree (£195.06—3 meetings)
Ascot (£156.97—3 meetings)
Ayr (£265.51—8 meetings)
Bangor (£64.74—6 meetings)
Carlisle (£87.19—4 meetings)
Cartmel (no meetings as yet)
Catterick (£368.95—4 meetings)
Cheltenham (£1,351.23—9 meetings)
Chepstow (£295.96—9 meetings)
Doncaster (£209.82—5 meetings)
Exeter (£119.62—9 meetings)
Fakenham (£28.39—4 meetings)
Folkestone (£87.90—5 meetings)
Fontwell (£545.32—10 meetings)
Haydock (£548.20—2 meetings)
Hereford (£80.68—5 meetings)
Hexham (£219.35—4 meetings)
Huntingdon (£543.11—9 meetings)
Kelso (£501.59—7 meetings)
Kempton (£628.60—5 meetings)
Leicester (£764.36—5 meetings)
Lingfield (£3.45—2 meetings)
Ludlow (£133.39—7 meetings)
Market Rasen (£180.09—6 meetings)
Musselburgh (£606.62—4 meetings)
Newbury (£386.03—7 meetings)
Newcastle (£442.89—8 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£108.82—4 meetings)
Perth (£553.03—3 meetings)
Plumpton (£366.27—8 meetings)
Sandown (£303.22—6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£119.98—7 meetings)
Southwell (£25.90—2 meetings)
Stratford (£420.02—4 meetings)
Taunton (£350.29—9 meetings)
Towcester (£463.08—6 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£836.67—4 meetings)
Warwick (£173.85—5 meetings)
Wetherby (£125.99—5 meetings)
Wincanton (£79.86—10 meetings)
Windsor (no meetings as yet)
Worcester (£131.95—2 meetings)
Flat (turf) courses:
Ascot (£117.30—1 meeting)
Bath (£383.57—3 meetings)
Beverley (£171.07—3 meetings)
Brighton (£133.30—2 meetings)
Catterick (£651.53—3 meetings)
Chepstow (£211.80—1 meeting)
Chester (£85.40—2 meetings)
Doncaster (£2,495.36—5 meetings)
Folkestone (£1,708.98—4 meetings)
Goodwood (£432.45—2 meetings)
Hamilton (£1,410.50—1 meeting)
Haydock (£17.70—1 meeting)
Leicester (£174.10—2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£12.00—3 meetings)
Newbury (£3,018.40—2 meetings)
Newcastle (£15.80—1 meeting)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£89.37—4 meetings)
Nottingham (£1,262.47—4 meetings)
Pontefract (£213.70—3 meetings)
Redcar (£53.80—2 meetings)
Ripon (£127.45—2 meetings)
Salisbury (£380.00—1 meeting)
Sandown (£28.00—1 meeting)
Southwell (£72.20—1 meeting)
Thirsk (£816.93—3 meetings)
Warwick (£1,496.10—3 meetings)
Windsor (£370.10—4 meetings)
Yarmouth (£618.60—2 meetings)
Flat (mixed flat--A/W & turf) courses:
Southwell (£161.60—2 meetings)
Flat (mixed flat & N/H on turf) courses:
Sandown (£238.70—1 meeting)
