Each day Malcolm Boyle, the author of 'How To Win at the Tote Placepot' and a former odds compiler, will give his unique analysis of the feature meeting from a Placepot perspective.
His general preview for the following day's racing will appear at around 1700 BST the day before with the actual selections available around two hours before the first race on the day of racing so factors such as non-runners and going conditions can properly be taken into account.
FAKENHAM – MAY 27
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2011: £41.00
2010: £31.70
Average toteplacepot dividend at this meeting (2 years) £36.35
Average toteplacepot dividend at Fakenham in 2006: £112.00 (10 meetings)—in 2007: £292.43 (9 meetings)--in 2008: £54.13 (8 meetings)--in 2009: £269.23 (10 meetings)--in 2010: £94.06 (8 meetings)--in 2011: £158.23 (11 meetings)
2.25 All 10 winners during the last decade have carried weights of 10-2 or more which suggests that the bottom three horses in the handicap have little or no chance of succeeding, albeit I could have given an each way squeak to Mrs Peacock. Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by declaring that DALHAAN, WELL METT and MEDIC MAN should all figure prominently in the opening contest.
'Favourite factor': Three of the ten races during the last decade were secured by market leaders, whilst eight of the 13 favourites secured toteplacepot positions.
2.55 Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-7 or more to victory and with just two ‘qualifiers’ this time around, CARDIGAN ISLAND and THE LUDER will be included in my toteplacepot permutation. Exactly the same number of qualifiers lined up last year, resulting in a 3/1 ‘victory’ for the column and I’m hoping that CARDIGAN ISLAND (in particular) can score on our behalf this time around. If the trend is to go belly up on this occasion, TIN POT MAN might emerge as the ’spoiler’ in the party.
'Favourite factor': Winning favourites have been conspicuous by their absence since 2007 when the market leader secured a five-timer for jollies. The last three favourites have all finished out with the washing.
3.30 Five of the last six winners have carried weights of 11-5 or more and hoping the trend produces another winner this time around, I’ll opt for PILGRIMS LANE, WESTER ROSS and PERSIAN GATES against the other two qualifiers. PILGRIMS LANE is set to carry an additional six pounds following last year’s victory in the contest.
'Favourite factor': Two favourites have prevailed via the last seven renewals of this event during which time, four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame.
4.05 With just £5000 in the entire kitty for this event, it is little wonder that we have a moderate race in the extreme to witness. Recent suggestions imply that the sport is in a state of turmoil and there is no doubt that if this type of event was the staple diet for punters, ‘virtual racing’ would suddenly make more appeal. Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by stating that ART HISTORY, MAHER and PERSIAN HERALD should figure prominently, more than that I couldn’t possibly say!
'Favourite factor': Last year‘s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged, albeit by only half a length from an 80/1 chance!
4.40 ESCORT’MEN is the first Paul Nicholls runner in this event since the trainer secured back-to-back victories in the contest in 2008/2009. The tip should be worth taking though that said, the declarations of SUBLIME TALENT and Charlie Swan’s Irish raider JOCK WILKINSON add interest to proceedings.
'Favourite factor': The last seven winners have scored at odds of 9/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.
5.10 Seven of the eight available toteplacepot positions in the finale have been secured by horses carrying weights of 11-5 or less, statistics which include all three (9/2-11/4-9/4) winners. The pick of this year’s six relevant horses should prove to be REBEL FLAG, BACH ON TWO and HI HO SYLVIA. The latter named raider was made favourite for this event last year before unseating the rider when still in with a definite chance of success.
'Favourite factor': Two of the three favourites have finished in the money (one winner).
KELSO:
Recent toteplacepot dividends pertaining to this meeting:
2011: £37.80
Average toteplacepot dividend at Kelso in 2006: £371.83 (12 meetings)--in 2007: £2,770.31 (14 meetings)--in 2008: £343.69 (12 meetings)--in 2009: £215.23 (13 meetings)--in 2010: £424.02 (11 meetings)--in 2011: £329.90 (12 meetings)
2012 Average toteplacepot dividends (up to and including Friday May 25)—A-Z racecourse guide:
Flat (Turf) venues:
Total A/W meetings (£916.08--95 meetings)
Ascot (£85.50--2 meetings)
Bath (£111.50--3 meetings)
Brighton (£931.13--3 meetings)
Beverley (£1,874.17--3 meetings)
Catterick (£155.15--4 meetings)
Chepstow (£330.60--1 meeting)
Chester (£2,070.70--3 meetings)
Doncaster (£829.30--6 meetings)
Epsom (£5,764.30--1 meeting)
Folkestone (£35.70--2 meetings)
Goodwood (£990.04--3 meetings)
Hamilton (£447.37--3 meetings)
Haydock (£34.53--3 meetings)
Leicester (£305.20--2 meetings)
Musselburgh (£173.62--5 meetings)
Newbury (£361.50--4 meetings)
Newcastle (£261.55--2 meetings)
Newmarket (Rowley Mile) (£902.61--7 meetings)
Nottingham (£450.02--5 meetings)
Pontefract (£196.97--3 meetings)
Redcar (£263.93--4 meetings)
Ripon (£2,542.20--3 meetings)
Salisbury (£1,305.93--3 meetings)
Sandown (£334.20--2 meetings)
Thirsk (£2,612.60--4 meetings)
Warwick (£180.60--1 meeting)
Windsor (£598.74--5 meetings)
Yarmouth (£84.52--5 meetings)
York (£5,263.10--3 meetings)
A/W venues:
Total A/W meetings (£251.84--153 meetings)
Kempton (£208.58--38 meetings)
Lingfield (£382.33--39 meetings)
Southwell (£162.32--30 meetings)
Wolverhampton (£225.55--46 meetings)
Mixed meetings (Flat--Turf & A/W):
Total A/W meetings (£189.80--1 meeting)
Lingfield (£189.80--1 meeting)
N/H venues:
Total NH meetings (£547.70--250 meetings)
Aintree (£216.37--4 meetings)
Ascot (£145.57--3 meetings)
Ayr (£1,282.24--9 meetings)
Bangor (£282.62--6 meetings)
Carlisle (£374.30--5 meetings)
Catterick (£1,402.99--5 meetings)
Cheltenham (£324.13--9 meetings)
Chepstow (£1,098.25--6 meetings)
Doncaster (£285.76--5 meetings)
Exeter (£36.04--7 meetings)
Fakenham (£245.08--5 meetings)
Ffos Las (£686.90--8 meetings)
Folkestone (£145.96--5 meetings)
Fontwell (£2,829.16--9 meetings)
Haydock (£321.37--4 meetings)
Hereford (£231.47--8 meetings)
Hexham (£226.05--4 meetings)
Huntingdon (£124.32--7 meetings)
Kelso (£206.38--5 meetings)
Kempton (£165.16--5 meetings)
Leicester (£159.46--5 meetings)
Lingfield (£228.46--3 meetings)
Ludlow (£121.77--8 meetings)
Market Rasen (£81.56--8 meetings)
Musselburgh (£1,162.35--5 meetings)
Newbury (£413.68--6 meetings)
Newcastle (£200.43--8 meetings)
Newton Abbot (£119.50--4 meetings)
Perth (£466.84--5 meetings)
Plumpton (£121.69--9 meetings)
Sandown (£658.06--6 meetings)
Sedgefield (£226.02--8 meetings)
Southwell (£393.77--8 meetings)
Stratford (£1,083.01--5 meetings)
Taunton (£374.83--7 meetings)
Towcester (£157.83--9 meetings)
Uttoxeter (£1,351.20--6 meetings)
Warwick (£120.03--6 meetings)
Wetherby (£2,466.12--4 meetings)
Wincanton (£508.77--10 meetings)
Worcester (£2,679.10--2 meetings)
Mixed meetings (NH & Flat):
Total average dividend (£306.45--2 meetings)
Haydock (£263.80--1 meeting)
Sandown (£349.10--1 meeting)
The average toteplacepot dividend in 2012 stands at £528.61 (501 meetings) up to and including Friday May 25