Haye - looks a good bet to win on points.
HOT HAYE CAN SLAY THE GIANT
By Derek Bilton
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David Haye shoots for immortality in Germany this weekend as he bids to become the latest Briton to win a world heavyweight title.
Standing in his way is the formidable figure of Nikolai Valuev, a 7ft-plus Russian behemoth who is, by some considerable distance, the biggest heavyweight champion in history.
Haye will be giving away roughly nine inches in height and 100lbs in weight when he climbs into the ring in Nuremberg for this modern day David v Goliath encounter.
It's a fight that has really captured public imagination and Haye has done his bit to stir up interest in the contest. He has derided the Russian as a "circus show freak" and also called into question Valuev's personal hygiene.
However the time for talking will soon be at an end and we will see soon enough whether Haye can actually walk the walk.
Haye opened as a 1/2 favourite for the fight but it seems the late money has been for Valuev with the Londoner now an industry best price 4/6.
Haye's credentials are impressive. A former amateur standout he has compiled a rock solid 22-1 (21) pro log since turning over in 2002.
In that time he has unified the cruiserweight division (as well as destroying big domestic rival Enzo Maccarinelli) while his only pro defeat came back in 2004 when he ran out of gas after a blistering start and was stopped on five rounds by Carl Thompson.
However as a heavyweight he is largely untested. Indeed this is just his third fight at the weight so he has it all to prove in Germany this weekend.
Valuev may be the biggest but he certainly isn't the best heavyweight champion in history. What he is though is a well conditioned, well disciplined giant who has lost just once in 52 pro starts.
After years spent struggling in the wilderness he first came to prominence in 2004 when he stopped quality Italian Paulo Vidoz. He won the WBA title a year later when he decisioned John Ruiz and his only defeat came two years after that, in 2007, when Ruslan Chagaev outboxed him in Stuttgart.
He reclaimed his WBA belt in 2008 after beating Ruiz again (this time via a questionable split verdict in Berlin). And last time out he boxed poorly against the ancient Evander Holyfield in Switzerland but still somehow came away with a majority decision.
After two less than inspiring displays it might be that the Russian is heading towards the end of the road. He is 36 after all and has endured a long career. He isn't particularly quick for a big man and has a low punch output. He does the basics well and it's no secret that his tactic will be to keep Haye on the end of his useful jab and try to wear the Londoner down with his sheer strength and size.
The key to this one is how Haye approaches the job. The Bermondsey man is wildly exciting and has a KO ratio above 90%, making him one of the most explosive pound-for-pound hitters in the sport. He has promised to deliver "one of the most jaw-dropping knockouts of all-time" but if adopts his usual search-and-destroy tactics in this one it is my view he could come a cropper.
Valuev has never been on the floor as a pro and has an exceptional chin. If Haye comes out all guns blazing he could leave himself open to a Russian counter or run the risk of blowing himself out.
There are question marks surrounding Haye's chin (he has been stopped once and dropped several times) and as to whether he can fight 12 rounds at a hot pace.
We know Valuev can do the championship distance as his last five fights have all gone the long route. However we also know the Russian can be outboxed. Larry Donald was robbed in a WBA heavyweight title eliminator against him back in 2005, Chagaev beat him over 12 and a 46-year-old Holyfield looked like he had done more than enough to get the verdict in Zurich last year.
If Haye can keep his discipline and rein in his natural attacking instincts he can win the fight. Indeed if he boxes to a game plan it could even be surprisingly one-sided. Haye has youth, speed and agility on his side as well as the hunger to follow men like Bob Fitzimmons and Lennox Lewis into the pantheon of British heavyweight greats.
It won't be easy and there is always the possibility that Haye will be robbed by the judges (foreign fighters historically don't tend to win decisions in Germany). However I feel Haye will outwork and outbox a game but limited Valuev to claim the WBA belt on points.
Preview posted at 0935GMT on 06/11/2009.
