50/1 LEONARD GETS OPEN VERDICT: Bettingzone

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	6pts win Ernie Els at 18/1 (Heathorns, Sportingbet)	Superb Open record and big fan of Muirfield. Could be Tiger's biggest threat this week.
	5pts win Sergio Garcia at 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)	Won British Amateur Championship at this venue and first major title looks imminent.
	2pts win Justin Leonard at 50/1 (Stan James)	1997 Open winner loves Scotland and course looks right up his street.
	3pts win Davis Love at 33/1 (General)	Current form and recent Open record suggests he could be seventh US winner in eight years.
	8pts win Tiger Woods at 2/1 (Heathorns)	Some of his strengths will be negated but Slam is huge incentive. Worth a saver.
SPREADS
	1pt sell Justin Leonard's finishing position at 32 (Spreadex, Cantor)	In wonderfully consistent form this season and a man to be feared in any Open held in Scotland.
	0.5pts sell Ernie Els finishing position at 21 (General)	Hasn't finished worse than tied 28th in 10 Open starts since his tied fifth here in 1992.
	0.5pts sell Sergio Garcia's finishing position at 24 (IG, Spreadex)	Contends in just about every major these days and has special memories of this course.
	0.5pts sell Davis Love's finishing position at 25 (Spreadex)	Bang in from, well prepared and has been inside this quote in last five Opens.
	0.5pts sell Bob Estes' finishing position at 35 (Spreadex)	A dark horse in Opens with eight top 25s. Improving player who could make top ten.
	1pt buy Justin Rose's finishing position at 35 (IG, Cantor)	Pairing with Tiger, as so many others have proved, could be disastrous.

Two down, two to go. That's the simple mathematics facing Tiger Woods in his bid to make history and win all four majors in the same calendar year.

Woods is a massive favourite to land leg three of the Grand Slam this week as the Open makes a welcome return to Muirfield in Scotland.

The last time Muirfield played host, in 1992, 16-year-old Woods was being named top amateur by Golf Digest and had just competed in his first pro event, the Los Angeles Open.

Ten years on and he's just 4/1 to sweep up the final two Majors of the year and land the Slam.

He's 2/1 to win a second British Open this week and after pretty much coasting to victory in the US Masters and US Open, is there any point in opposing him?

It's easy to make a case for putting all your eggs in one basket and lumping everything on Tiger at 2/1. He's the best player on the planet, the psychological edge he has over his rivals grows ever bigger and he loves playing the Open.

But, as a tipster, there isn't much kudos in recommending Woods at such a price and the majority of folk betting on the Open want bigger-priced alternatives to a 2/1 favourite.

With that in mind, plus my belief that Tiger is likely rather than certain to win, the recommended strategy is to have a saver on Woods.

If he wins we break even. If he loses, his lost stake money won't eat too much into the hefty profits we'll make on our other three selections.

So who are the men who can scupper Tiger's seemingly unstoppable march towards immortality?

Well, let's talk first about what sort of player will do well at Muirfield. With the course arranged in two loops of nine, the wind is constantly changing. To combat that requires patience and a strategic mind.

And at not much over 7,000 yards this is very much a shotmaker's course rather than a big hitter's paradise. Unlike Bethpage Black (the site of the US Open), where the long drivers had a field day, there's plenty more players who should enter the equation.

The first is a player who has one of the best Open records of the modern age - South African Ernie Els.

Els has racked up five top six finishes in the Open, including two second places. And he hasn't finished worse than tied 28th in a 10-year stretch dating back to 1992.

Interestingly, the start of that sequence began here at Muirfield when, as a 22-year-old playing only his second Open, Els finished tied fifth.

Unsurprisingly, Els is a big fan of the course and renewed acquaintinces with the Scottish links on his way up to Loch Lomond last week.

"I'm happy to say the golf course hasn't changed a bit, which means one thing�it's awesome!," he said on his own website ernieels.com.

"The set-up of the golf course is perfect. They haven't messed around with the layout, or tricked it up with ridiculously narrow fairways and jungle-like rough as they did at Carnoustie in 1999.

Although he disappointed at Loch Lomond last week, I wouldn't read too much into that. Els is expert at getting his game right for majors and actually missed the cut the week before his 1997 US Open win. Take the 18/1.

Whether it's confidence or arrogance, Garcia remains one of the few golfers, perhaps the only one, who genuinely believes he is a match for Woods.

Although he gave Tiger a mighty scare in the 1999 USPGA, Garcia is still to get the better of Woods when it really matters. But there's no hint of an inferiority complex and, when it comes to the majors, Garcia's knocks on the door are getting louder.

He's given himself a chance to win both majors this year and has been in final day contention in four of the last five.

To answer that we need to rewind to 1998 when a young Sergio captured the British Amateur crown. The venue? This very same Muirfield course.

Garcia says he remembers being told after his 1998 win that the Open would be held there in 2002 and hoped that he would be in the field.

Not only will he be there but Garcia will go to Muirfield as one of Tiger's biggest rivals.

With the course playing softer than normal (there was further soft drizzle as I arrived here on Tuesday afternoon), his chances have to increase.

At hard, fast and narrow Carnoustie, a bemused Garcia famously shot 83-89 to miss the cut by a mile. He's banished that memory by finishing in the top ten last year and he has to have a great chance of completing the turnaround at a course where he knows he can thrive.

Garcia proved by winning in Hawaii earlier this year that his low-ball flight can work a treat in windy conditions so 20/1 looks a tasty price.

Americans have won six of the last seven US Opens - a surprising statistic given their lack of exposure to links courses - and US players hold all four majors.

Tiger has two of course but what do we make of the chances of current Open champion David Duval and USPGA holder David Toms?

Duval's form remains a total mystery. His superb victory 12 months ago was clearly a turning point in his career but so far all he's done is turn back to his pre-Lytham form - i.e a glaring lack of wins and surprise missed cuts.

Amazingly Duval has missed the cut in both majors this year and that is unthinkable given the way he marched to his three-shot win in last year's Open. Back then it was inconceivable that he would be as big as 33/1 to defend his crown at Muirfield.

Injury, splitting up with his long-time girlfriend and tinkering with new clubs have all played a part but there's still the overriding feeling that this is a temporary blip and he could spark into life at any moment.

Perhaps Duval is toying with us and he's going to make a majestic defence. Unlikely, but not impossible I would say and I strongly believe that the former world number one will not give up his crown easily.

Toms shouldn't be written off either. Like Duval, he hasn't won since capturing his first major - the 2001 USPGA - but, unlike Duval, Toms has been in excellent form in 2002. Five top four finishes have taken his earnings over $2m and he sits fourth on the US Money List - 81 places above Duval.

And although he missed the cut at Lytham, in his only other Open appearance, Toms finished fourth at St Andrews two years ago.

Winning this isn't beyond him and 40/1 isn't the worst price for a player who doesn't get the credit he deserves.

But beyond Woods, the American with the best chance of making it seven US wins in eight years could be Justin Leonard.

The Scottish air has a magical effect on the man from Texas who won the 1997 Open at Troon and lost a three-man play-off at Carnoustie two years later.

And shortish 7,034-yard Muirfield could be right up his street as well � a point echoed by Davis Love on Tuesday who said he believes his Ryder Cup colleague could be a big threat.

Hailing from Texas, Leonard won't mind one bit if the wind blows and he has the imagination and patience required for links golf as well as the ideal low-ball flight.

And his form this year is highly impressive. Back in April he showed all his scrambling qualities to capture the Worldcom Classic and that win formed part of a nine-tournament stretch between March and June where he never finished outside the top 20.

In the 2002 majors he's finished tied 20th in the US Masters and tied 12th in the US Open so his reputation as a big-time performer is very much intact.

Leonard turned 30 during the US Open and the next decade should prove hugely profitable for him. He can kick it off by making a big impression here at a mouthwatering 50/1.

The other player who looks best equipped to keep the stars and stripes flying is Davis Love.

Love's missed cuts at Muirfield in 1987 and 1992 could be off-putting on first glance but back then the 1997 USPGA champion was still learning the art of links golf.

He proved a slow learner as his first 10 cracks at "The British" yielded six missed cuts and just one top 30.

But after turning the corner with a tied 10th at Lytham in 1996, Love has developed into one of the Open's most consistent players.

Following that tied 10th, he was seventh at Carnoustie, seventh again at Birkdale, tied 11th at St Andrews and tied 21st at Lytham last year.

That tied 21st doesn't tell the whole story either as Love produced a final day charge that put him right up with the leaders. But in trying to set a decent clubhouse score he pushed too hard and fell away.

Nevertheless it was still a decent effort as much of his season had been riddled with injury after he suffered a bulging disk in his neck.

This season, Love has put those problems behind him and in the last few months he's played better and better.

The first signs of improvement came at Augusta where he led after day one (eventually finishing tied 15th). Top fives at Hilton Head and Colonial followed before he finished tied 24th at the US Open after sliding back from tied 10th at the start of the final day.

But in his last two starts, he has stayed on strong for all four rounds. A closing 67 saw him tie for second in the Greater Hartford Open and he finished runner-up again next time out as a final day 66 wasn't quite enough to reel in Jerry Kelly in the Western Open.

But with back-to-back second places under his belt, Love will be a very confident player and could play a big part this week.

He's certainly taking it seriously and revealed in a greenside interview on Tuesday that he had played three and a half practice rounds since arriving at Muirfield last week. Get stuck in at 33/1.

As for the other Americans, it's hard to work up much enthusiasm for Phil Mickelson who hasn't managed a single top ten in nine previous visits to the Open.

He's had flashes - back-to-back eagles at Lytham last year and a second round 66 when tied 11th at St Andrews - but generally his high ball flight catches him out when it blows.

Like Love, he may be on a slow learning curve but past form and common sense says his best chances of bagging that overdue first major will come in America. And to be honest we're being asked to take a price (16/1) that isn't much higher than we have to for the US Masters, US Open and USPGA where his chances of victory look significantly better. To highlight the point he's had 16 top tens in the US majors and none over here.

The 1992 Open at Muirfield was also notable for how many middling US Tour players made their mark. John Cook was runner-up, Steve Pate fourth, Donnie Hammond and Andrew Magee tied fifth. Further down a then majorless Mark O'Meara was tied 12th with Larry Rinker.

Cook and O'Meara return again this year and could make an impression but perhaps the most likely of the US steady-eddies to raise a few eyebrows are Bob Estes and Loren Roberts.

Estes has an impressive five top 25s to his name in past Opens, including a tied eighth at St Andrews in 1995. And Roberts has finished tied 13th and tied seventh in the last two Opens and made the top 30 in three others.

Neither are likely to win but could sneak into a place or be handy men to have on your side in match bets.

Turning to Europe, there are plenty who could carry the fight along with Garcia.

Jesper Parnevik is always a standing dish at Open time but his form seems to have deserted him this year while Colin Montgomerie will surely never get a better chance than he did last year.

Padraig Harrington is becoming a familiar name on leaderboards at the majors and has three top 20s from six Open starts. His form is good enough although his inability to turn high finishes into wins means it's hard to see him becoming a major champion just yet.

Darren Clarke is the other obvious name to consider. The Ulsterman has a fantastic Open record with a tied second at Troon on 1997 and a tied third last year the highlights.

But unless everything goes for him he's got a bit of a tendency to let his head drop too quickly at the moment. That puts me off even though he is a potential winner if at his very best.

He has won the last two Open Championships to be played at Muirfield and along with eyecatching efforts in this year's US Masters and US Open, he will have his backers.

Faldo has commented in the press that he is looking forward to tackling one of his favourite venues and with no shortage of fans roaring him on, could he complete the hat-trick?

And what about Ian Woosnam? Last year's hard-luck story when he suffered a two-shot penalty after his caddie left an extra club in his bag still rankles with the Welshman.

But he's been in pretty good nick in recent weeks and has an eyecatching record at Muirfield. In 1987 he finished tied eighth and five years later he was tied fifth. A great iron player like Woosie is not without a chance.

Justin Rose, a memorable fourth in 1998 when a 17-year-old amateur, was another who could have been in the frame but being grouped with Tiger for the first two days could be disastrous news.

Euro colleague Harrington has already warned Rose how much more difficult his week will be as he has to contend with Tiger's noisy entourage. And Rose doesn't sound convincing when he says he'll try not to let it get to him.

Looking to the other four corners of the world and Retief Goosen is an obvious name to consider. The hotstreak of victories sparked by his 2001 US Open win may have dried up for the time being but he's still a force to be reckoned with and his superb record in the Dunhill Cup at St Andrews proves his liking for Scottish links.

Goosen is definitely top ten material but maybe others have a better chance of actually winning.

Nick Price, Open champion in 1994, and in-form Kiwi Michael Campbell could also make the frame while Vijay Singh has the class even if this doesn't look the time to be backing him.

In truth, take out Tiger and this really is wide open. Davis Love says he reckons as many as 50 to 75 players in the field could win with the course not a big hitters' haven.

But nevertheless, we shall stick with our Els, Garcia, Leonard and Love as our foursome to take on Woods.

Three are major winners and the other will surely join them soon. All are class acts and have the range of shots to flourish here.

With all four confidently expected to go well, I shall also sell their finishing positions on the spreads with Leonard looking the best of the bunch.

I will add in a sell of Bob Estes who could be a great dark horse while I am a buyer of Rose's finishing position after his pairing with Woods.



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