Mickelson - can defend title.

By Dave Tindall

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	3pts win Phil Mickelson at 18/1 (bet365, Stan James).	1st and 2nd here in last two visits and worth it at this price despite poor form.
	3pts win Padraig Harrington at 18/1 (bet365, Stan James).	Admits that he's trying to peak for this event as he's a big fan of the course.
	2pts e.w. Mike Weir at 20/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Two-time Riviera winner will be chomping at the bit after being denied title bid at Pebble.
	1pt e.w. John Rollins at 80/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Plays this course well and can go well again after near-miss at Torrey Pines.

Without any intention to, I find myself drawn towards the three market leaders at this week's Northern Trust Open at the famous Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles.

This is not due to laziness, shortage of time or lack of inspiration.

It's due to a number of betting rules I have which just happen to have been triggered in the same tournament.

The first is to back Phil Mickelson in any non-major if he's 16/1 plus.

He's hit that price a couple of times in the last few seasons and, guess what, he's twice come out the winner.

The first came in the HSBC Champions tournament in China in November 2007 when he came through a three-man play-off to take the title.

And earlier that year he went into the AT&T National Pebble Beach Pro-Am at 16s after a missed cut, tied 51st and tied 45th in his opening three events of the season (sound familiar?) but found his game and blew away the field by five shots.

I also have a rule for Padraig Harrington - back him in the third tournament of any stretch where he plays three events in a row.

That's not a clever pattern I've discovered; it's basically an open secret which Harrington himself often brings up in interview.

This was him talking a couple of weeks ago. "Usually I peak in my third week so I look to put the majors the third week," said the three-time major champ. "If you look through my schedule I'll do that with the Irish Open, the Irish Open being one of my bigger events. Even the Northern Trust tournament in three weeks' time, I've played well there. So I kind of felt if I come out and play next week early, maybe I'll be in better form going back to a golf course (Riviera) that I like."

So having marked our card, getting the winner of the last two majors at 18/1 is too good to ignore.

The negative with Harrington is that he doesn't exactly look to be following a smooth progression towards a peak as he missed the cut at Pebble Beach last week to follow on from a tied 24th at the Buick Invitational.

The same current form concerns, of course, apply to Mickelson, whose West Coast Swing reads missed cut, tied 42nd, tied 55th.

However, let's not forget that these two are multiple winners and three-time major champions, playing on one of their favourite courses and at bigger prices than we could have imagined.

It may just be that all they need to get the competitive juices flowing again is to get into contention and, if they do, they are great men to have on your side.

A quick reminder of course form. Mickelson has a win and a play-off loss from his last two visits to Riviera while Harrington's two trips to the legendary L.A. layout have yielded a seventh in 2007 and a third last year.

I'm more than happy to back both at 18/1 when, in slightly better form, 10s and 12s could have been all that was on offer.

My third favourite is Mike Weir at 20s.

Weir was my headline tip last week at an identical price and to be honest I thought he had every chance of passing Dustin Johnson on the final day at Pebble Beach had the last 18 holes not been cancelled.

Still, there was much to like about Weir's runners-up finish and it means from his last four events he can now boast a second, a third and a fourth.

Despite the disappointment of not getting a crack at the title, the Canadian thoroughly enjoyed his trip to the Monterey Peninsula, even finding extra time to play with his dog on Carmel beach.

But though nice and relaxed, Weir will still feel there's some unfinished business to attend to and Riviera could be the ideal venue.

Why? Well, Weir just happens to be a two-time champion here after taking victory in 2003 - the year of his US Masters win - and then defending 12 months later.

Weir topped the scrambling stats at Pebble and with small greens in play at Riviera, getting up and down will be a key asset.

I just can't imagine him not challenging again so reinvesting last week's each-way returns looks a must.

To balance out the staking plan a little, I'll end by scrolling down to an 80/1 chance.

John Rollins must still be aggrieved how victory eluded him at Torrey Pines - especially after an eagle with six holes left looked to have closed the deal.

However, after skipping Pebble Beach last week, this could be a great chance to get straight back into contention again.

Rollins plays classical layouts extremely well; he has four top 18 finishes from his last six visits here while he's also a former runner-up at Westchester.

Asked where Riviera ranks on his all-time list, Rollins said last year: "Top five, for sure. It's one of the best we play. It's just a great, old, classic course that I really enjoy playing."

Rollins can boast four top fives, including two second places, on his last 11 starts on the West Coast and the last time he made the top five at Torrey Pines (2006) he finished fifth here a few weeks later.

If he can reproduce the stunning play which helped him negotiate Torrey Pines South in 64 shots, he has a live chance of bagging his third US Tour win.