Marino - can post first win.

By Dave Tindall

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1.5pts e.w. Steve Marino at 55/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Tour's leading birdie maker has strong record in Florida and seems to thrive in season-ending events.
	0.5pts e.w. Chad Collins at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	12th last week on course that didn't suit so worth chancing here given putting prowess.
	1pt e.w. Nick Watney at 55/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	9th and 5th here last two years, good end-of-season performer and looks ready for big week.
	1pt e.w. George McNeill at 40/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Twice a runner-up in his home State of Florida in 2008 and loves this time of year.
	1pt e.w. Ryan Palmer at 66/1 (Coral, totesport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Last week's winner has finished 1st and 3rd here so worth chancing again.

The curtain comes down on the 2008 US Tour this week and to celebrate everyone's off to Disneyland.

The Children's Miracle Network Classic has been won by the likes of Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in the last decade although there's a lack of star names in this week's line-up.

Justin Leonard heads the betting ahead of US Tour serial loser Robert Allenby and defending champion Stephen Ames.

But I can't get very excited about any of the market leaders so will look further down the betting for this week's tips.

One player I really like for this is Steve Marino.

When Marc Turnesa won in Las Vegas recently, he pointed to the back of the room where his good friend Marino had come along to hear his press conference and declared: "That's your next winner over there, Marino. It won't be long."

Okay it didn't come last week at the Ginn sur Mer Classic but Marino shot four solid rounds to finish tied 18th so hopefully he can use that as a springboard to flourish here.

Marino made the top 20 on his debut in this event last year and has made the top 25 in five of his last six starts in Florida so he's a strong performer in the Sunshine State.

Birdies will be in plentiful supply this week - especially on the easier Palm Course, but also on the Magnolia (used for three of the four rounds) despite it now measuring 7,516 yards.

The good news is that Marino has made more birdies (417) on the US Tour than any other player in 2008 and is second in Par 5 Performance so he has the stats to cash in.

One final point which could be significant is that Marino has a habit of playing well in season-ending tournaments.

Last year's top 20 here was his best performance in his final 10 events on the US Tour, while in 2006 he closed out the Nationwide Tour with a season's best tied sixth in the Nationwide Tour Championship and a couple of weeks earlier he had fired an amazing 59 on his way to an eight-shot win in the Gateway Tour's season-ending Sidney Frank Memorial Tour Championship

Back Marino at 55/1 to sign off in style again here.

Down at 150/1 I'll have another pop at Chad Collins.

Collins made it into the staking plan in Las Vegas recently and opened with a 66 before fading.

He then carded 67-68-66 to sit 11th after 54 holes in the Frys.com Open before again sliding away.

However, last week at the Ginn sur Mer he kept going until the finish to end up 12th and cashed his biggest ever cheque on the US Tour.

The impressive thing about that was it came on a course he admitted didn't fit his eye and was far too long for him.

Collins closed out by holing a monster putt at the 18th to save par so will be feeling good about himself ahead of this final chance to secure his card.

The story of these Fall Series tournaments has been about players outside the magic 125 securing their futures and just maybe Collins could be the latest.

His big strength is his putting - he's eighth on Tour (up from 11th last week) - so if he can set up birdie chances he has the flatstick prowess to take advantage.

One man who clearly likes this tournament is Nick Watney.

Last year's Zurich Classic of New Orleans winner finished ninth here last year and a joint season's best tied fifth in 2006.

A look through his past records suggests this is a good time of year to back him as his late-season form is not just specific to this event.

His one Nationwide Tour win came at the very end of October while he posted a fifth, a sixth and an eighth in three of his last five events in 2006.

As for this year there are signs that he might be about to post another big finish.

He opened with a 63 in Las Vegas where he also did some good work with coach Butch Harmon and last time out he carded 69-67-66-68 to rack up a top 20 finish in the Frys.com Open in Arizona.

This tournament plays into his hands in the fact that he cashes in on the par fives and it's worth noting that Watney's win at Avondale last year came on a lengthy par 72 with water in play.

His putting is a little worrying but he's done well on these greens in the past couple of years so he looks a fair bet at 55/1.

A form players with a ton of Florida form and connections is George McNeill and Ladbrokes' 40/1 looks worth a play.

McNeill went to Florida State University and lives in Florida so perhaps it's no surprise that he's twice finished runner-up in his home State twice already this year.

The first of those came in the PODS Championship in March while the second came in last week's Ginn sur Mer Classic.

McNeill has improved his finish in each of the Fall Series events he's played - 22nd-15th-11th-2nd - so he's clearly in excellent form and, don't forget, he posted a late-season win last year when hitting the jackpot in Las Vegas.

"I've always played pretty well towards the end of the year," McNeill reflected in Arizona recently, citing that Vegas win and his days on the mini-Tours. "I was born in October, so I don't know if that has something to do with it. I have no idea why; that's just the way it goes."

Okay, that's not the most scientific explanation but let's just accept that he does and try and take advantage.

Last week McNeill topped the greens in regulation stats for the second tournament running and although he's been complaining about not holing enough putts that's normally the case with players who give themselves more chances than most.

The only negative about McNeill's chances is a missed cut here last year but as that came so soon after his breakthrough win in Vegas perhaps we can forgive him for taking his eye off the ball.

Finally, is it being silly to put Ryan Palmer up again after he gave us that 150/1 payout last week?

Well, this is the tournament where Palmer first came to prominence in 2004 when he shot a stunning final round 62 to post his first US Tour title.

Not only that he came third when defending it the following year.

Okay, he's finished 36th and 74th the last two years but clearly this place holds special memories for him.

At his winner's press conference on Sunday, Palmer looked ahead to this tournament and said: "Next week's going to be an unbelievable week.

"I told my parents, I said 'I'm going to make next week relaxing for us.' And now we get to go have fun at Disney, play golf with Jason Bohn, one of my closest friends on Tour. Get to play the tournament and enjoy the week."

Just like last week, Palmer will tee off on a par 72 course in Florida on top of the Birdie Average stats and second in Putting Average but, of course, he also has that unquantifiable extra - confidence.

Despite securing his future until the end of 2010, there are more ladders to climb for Palmer here.

Getting into the top 70 (he's currently 73rd) will book him a place in the invitationals at Bay Hill and Memorial while a top 30 finish on the US Money List gives him a start in next year's US Masters and US Open.

Relaxed, happy, in great form and playing in a tournament where he's enjoyed huge success, the 66/1 could prove a cracking price.