Who will strike it lucky in Vegas this year?

By Dave Tindall

Sky Bet's Odds Compare All Prices

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1pt e.w. Jason Gore at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Fit again, back in form, makes loads of birdies and seventh here last year.
	0.5pts e.w. Chad Collins at 250/1 (Sportingbet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Ace putter shot two 65s in Texas last week and this is a tournament for shocks.
	0.5pts e.w. Kevin Stadler at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Born in Nevada and plays well there. Coming into some form again.
	1pt e.w. Jeff Overton at 55/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	10th and 5th in last two starts and big fan of Summerlin.
	0.75pts e.w. Jason Gore to be first round leader at 70/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Second after R1 at Summerlin last year and fourth in Texas after day one last week.
	0.75pts e.w. Chad Collins to be first round leader at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Fourth after R1 last week and opened with a 62 to lead Nationwide event last year.
	0.5pts e.w. Kevin Stadler to be first round leader at 110/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	First round leader at 2007 HSBC Champions event and plenty of other good Thursday displays.
	1pt e.w. Jeff Overton to be first round leader at 60/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	R1 leader twice in his last seven starts and opened with a 65 here last year.

Andre Stolz, Wes Short Jr, Troy Matteson, George McNeill.

You'd be forgiven for mistaking them for lounge acts on the Las Vegas Strip but this unlikely quartet are the last four winners of the gambling mecca's annual PGA Tour golf tournament.

They share several characteristics. All were playing in the event for the first time, all had never won on Tour before and, as a result, all were huge prices who went virtually unbacked - a reminder that in Vegas the House always wins.

But, like the Strip itself, this tournament continues to evolve and this year there are several dramatic and significant changes.

The new name - the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospitals for Children Open - won't concern punters but the new format will. This year all four rounds will be played at TPC Summerlin and the amateurs will pack up their clubs on Wednesday - a stark contrast to the 90-hole pro-am format once used and different enough to last year (two courses used and pro-am format in place) to suggest the outcome might prove easier to predict and be less of a crap-shoot.

The course is reported to be in great shape, with the weather forecast indicating temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s with little wind. Timberlake reckons 25-under might be the winning score although that sounds a little low.

However, the Summerlin course will definitely yield birdies and eagles so shooting low is likely to be the name of the game if the wind stays away.

And for that reason I'll make Jason Gore my main pick at 66/1.

The 2005 84 Lumber Classic winner has spent most of 2008 suffering from sickness and revealed at last week's Texas Open that a few months ago he'd have been unable to complete a tough walking course like LaCantera because he got so tired.

However he's "100 percent again" and his results are starting to reflect his return to full fitness. So far in the Fall Series he's clocked up an eighth place at the Viking Classic and a tied 19th at last week's Texas Open where one bad round stopped his 65 and two 66s leading to something much better.

He's currently 127th on the US Money List, just outside the magic 125, so needs to keep up his late-season push to retain his card.

And this could be the event where he wraps it up in style. Gore is fourth in Birdie Average which bodes well with low scores expected and he can also boast a seventh place here last year.

Eighth in Reno on his last start in Nevada, Gore has plenty going for him and could just be the ace in the pack at 66/1.

If you want another crazy long-shot, give Chad Collins a spin at 250/1.

The man from Indiana lists Elvis as one of his heroes so should be delighted to be in Vegas and as long as he can be dragged out of Elvis-A-Rama (the museum dedicated to The King) he could leave the bookies, Elvis pun alert, all shook up.

But why else should he get our attention?

Well basically this fella can putt.

He's ranked number one this year on putts made from 15 to 20 feet and his short-stick prowess has led to him carding three 65s in his last three starts, two coming in last week's Texas Open.

If he can get the ball on the green - easier than normal on a resort course - Collins could make hay with the putter.

Tied 19th in Texas last week, his previous records show that he is a player who can follow one good performance with another so take the plunge.

Another big-priced outsider with credentials is Kevin Stadler.

'Baby Walrus' was born in Nevada and has had played well in his home State in recent years.

In this even three years ago, he was lying fifth during the final round before being disqualified for having a bent club in his bag.

And last year at the Reno-Tahoe Open he finished runner-up.

True, he's had a pretty poor year aside from a top 15 in the Players Championship but there have been some positive signs in the Fall Series with a top 25 in the Turning Stone Resort Championship and a good opening 54 holes (67-66-69) in Texas last week.

It's flawed to think that Vegas 'owes you one' but Stadler is due a bit of luck after that 2005 DQ and makes enough birdies and eagles to suggest that he can feature at the finish.

Stadler, who had a hole-in-one at Summerlin in 2005, is down in 143rd in the Money List so this tournament is perhaps the best chance he'll get to secure his card.

My fourth pick is in-form Jeff Overton at 55/1.

Overton flew out of the blocks here last year with a 65 at Summerlin and admitted later that he knew the course very well after coming out to Vegas in the previous two winters and playing it.

"Desert golf is just fun I think. It's awesome," said Overton. "Summerlin is a fun golf course and you can get to a lot of the Par 5s."

The big hitter from Indiana arrives in Vegas, one of his favourite places, on a real a roll after two excellent weeks that have put him inside the top 125.

First he tied 10th at Turning Stone after leading at halfway while he followed that up with a tied fifth in Texas last week after a closing 65.

Those performances point to him improving on his tied 19th place in this event last year and he's a worthy addition to the staking plan at 55/1.

In keeping with the Vegas attitude I'll also roll the dice by backing the tips in the first round leader market.

To be honest it isn't the flippant gamble it seems and I'd have won far more this year had I just played my selections in the day one market.

Looking at our quartet of tips, Collins was fourth after round one in Texas last week which would have triggered a payout while he led the Nationwide Tour's Northeast Pennsylvania Classic last year after a majestic opening 62.

Gore would also have secured an each-way return last week after his opening 65 while he was a near-miss sixth after day one in Reno a couple of months ago.

Best of all he was second after Thursday's play in this tournament last year after shooting a 64 while he was sixth in Reno after round one in 2007 so fast starts in Nevada seem to be his forte!

Stadler led the 2007 HSBC Champions tournament after the first day while on the US Tour in the last two years he's been sat in the top 10 five times following round one - not great but better than his actual finishes.

Overton is of particular interest.

He's been the round one leader twice in his last seven starts - at Turning Stone and, good for the Nevada connection, again at Reno.

He was also second after the first day in July's AT&T and his record shows him sitting in the top five on three other occasions in the last 12 months, the first of those coming whenhe opened with a 65 in this very event in 2007.

In short, it wouldn't be too far wide of the mark to describe the in-form Overton as a first round specialist.

Back him to repeat the trick this week and land us a 60/1 gamble.