Woods - can win at Doral yet again.

By Dave Tindall

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	6pts win Tiger Woods at 5/6 (General).	Has won last five US Tour events and the last three tournaments here. Can fund the rest of the staking plan.
	1pt Daniel Chopra place only (1,2,3,4,5) at 40/1 (totesport).	Winner this season, winner in Florida in October and started in final group here two years ago.
	0.75pts e.w. Camilo Villegas 'without Woods' at 60/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Tied second behind Woods in 2006 and will receive massive local support.
	0.75pts e.w. Ryuji Imada 'without Woods' at 60/1 (totesport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Two seconds and a fifth in his last four starts for Florida-based Japanese.

Sometimes the term "staking plan" gets used rather haphazardly so let's be certain we really mean to adhere to it this week.

The word "plan" is defined as a scheme, program, or method worked out beforehand for the accomplishment of an objective.

And my objective is not to win awards for originality but to make a profit on this week's WGC-CA Championship at Doral - a difficult task given that Tiger Woods, by far and away the most likely winner, is priced at odds-on, a move designed to put his backers off.

But I am very clear in my mind as how to approach this dilemma and the plan is this: Have a decent win bet on Woods and use the profits to fund some free bets on some interesting long-shots.

Okay, it may sound presumptious to say that Tiger is already home and hosed but, my word, his credentials this week are astonishing.

He's won six straight tournaments worldwide, including his last five on the US Tour, and, guess what, he's won here at Doral for the last three years!

Throw in the stat that he's won 15 of his 24 starts in World Golf Championship events and the odds-on quotes are more than justified.

Whichever way you look at it Tiger wins.

With only one or two exceptions, the winners at Doral since 1990 have grown up or lived in Florida and been 30 over over. Woods is a 32-year-old who lives in Florida!

"I love this golf course," said Tiger in his post-win press conference last year. "I've always played well here, and when it was decided (prior to the 2007 event) that we were going to come here (to play a WGC event), I just thought that this was a wonderful opportunity for me to win the championship."

Last year Woods had a slight neck injury and had to re-learn some putts after the greens were relaid with TifEagle. For someone who putts from memory it could have been a problem but, of course, Tiger adjusted quickly and racked up yet another win.

He's simply unstoppable right now so let's put 6pts of our 10pt allocation on the great man at 5/6.

That leaves us 4pts to play with and the first bet I like is the 40/1 about Daniel Chopra in the place only market.

This seems an insulting price for a player who beat a quality, if limited, field to win the season-opening Mercedes Championship and one who won on his fourth last start in Florida.

Chopra resides in Orlando so has the required Florida connection for this event and has form in this event too.

Two years ago he was tied second going into the last round, the problem being he was paired with the great Woods in the final group. It was all a bit too much for Chopra, who slumped to a 77 and slid all the way down to tied 20th.

However, since then he's become a two-time US Tour winner - those two victories coming in the last six months. That doesn't mean he could beat Woods if circumstances were repeated but it does suggest he'd handle himself much better.

So why the 40/1 for a place?

Yes, he did miss the cut at Bay Hill but a second round 68, including a back nine 32, was a fine effort and before that he was a not too shabby tied 36th at the PODS.

If he can find his share of fairways, he's more than capable of grabbing a top five finish.

This is very much a home game for Camilo Villegas and two years ago he delighted his vast army of family, friends and college buddies from the University of Florida by finishing second to Woods.

Villegas didn't qualify for the tournament when it became a WGC event last year but his rise up the rankings means he gets in this time and he'll be chomping at the bit to taste the Doral experience again. "I am excited about playing there this year," he told local press recently. "I like that course and I like playing in front of a bunch of fans."

The Colombian is a three-time runner-up on the US Tour and two of those have come in Florida so this is the State most likely to give him his first victory.

Villegas seems to be a horses-for-courses type and held the lead during round three in the FBR Open at Phoenix last month - the scene of his other runners-up finish.

He's kept his game ticking over with a top 25 at the Honda and was 44th at Bay Hill last month but this is the Florida venue where he could really catch fire.

Villegas is 60/1 'without Woods' and that bet would have collected two years ago.

The final vote goes to one of the most in-form players on the US Tour - Japan's Ryuji Imada.

Imada finished runner-up to Woods at the Buick Invitational, was tied fifth at Riviera and, most recently, tied second in the PODS Championship.

Like Woods, Chopra and Villegas, Imada is another Florida-based player so should be able to reap the benefits of playing in his home state.

He's made the cut both times he's teed it up at Doral although finishes of 72nd and 77th need a little explaining.

But there are crumbs of comfort in there. In 2005 he actually shot three rounds of 70 but was undone by a 78 on Saturday. And in 2006 he posted a second round 68 before falling away on the weekend.

However, he is one who should definitely benefit from the course being toughened up last year.

Imada has an excellent short game and has been in the top two on the scrambling stats in his last three completed tournaments.

He goes into the event this year playing the best golf of his life and the 60/1 without Woods is enough to draw us in.