Sabbatini - in great form still.
SABBA RANKS BEST BET IN PHOENIX
By Dave Tindall
BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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2pts e.w. Rory Sabbatini at 16/1 (totesport, Boylesports, Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Plenty of good rounds here and has made the top three in 50% of his last 16 US Tour starts. |
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1.5pts e.w. Justin Leonard at 25/1 (bet365, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Twice a runner-up here, in great form and has required hot putter. |
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1pt e.w. Camilo Villegas at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Runner-up on debut in 2006 and promising seasonal bow at Torrey Pines. |
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1pt e.w. Kenny Perry at 60/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Bags of course form and third in Bob Hope two weeks ago where he was second for putting. |
With the greens reported to be in "fantastic condition" by Bill Grove, the director of golf at TPC Scottsdale, the Tour's hot putters should be licking their lips ahead of this week's FBR Open.
And with Rory Sabbatini revealing that his flatstick has been the key to his superb form over the last two years, the South African could scorch his rivals in the annual shootout in Phoenix.
Sabbatini makes plenty of the wrong headlines for his actions or outspoken comments but sometimes we forget just how prolific he's become.
Looking at his last 16 starts on the US Tour, he's posted a victory, three second places, four thirds and three further top 10s.
In other words he's made the top three in 50% of his US tournaments starting with the 2006 US Masters and that makes him an each-way punter's dream.
There was a slight concern that his switch in equipment in the off-season might halt his momentum but a second in the Sony Open and a third at the Buick Invitational in his last two starts show that he remains as potent as ever.
Indeed, Sabbatini explained at Torrey Pines last week: "Obviously I'm extremely excited. It's obviously a new year with new equipment, and all things considered, I'm extremely happy with the way my equipment has been performing so far.
"I found a set of irons with Adams that just seems to be performing even better than expected for me, and my confidence level is extremely high.
"My ball-striking is good, which has never really been one of my strongest suits out there, so combining that with the way my putter is continuing to work for me over the past two years, it's definitely promising."
Surprisingly, given the mouth on him, "definitely promising" is an understatement and there's no reason why he can't get right in the mix again this week and hopefully post a first win of the campaign.
Sabbatini's course form isn't top notch but last year's winner Aaron Baddeley had never shown anything here while J.B. Holmes was making his debut when blitzing the field the year before.
To be fair, Sabbatini has had plenty of good rounds at Scottsdale. He shot a seven-under 64 when eighth in 2002 and repeated that feat in 2006 when also making the top 20.
Add in a 65, two 66s and four rounds in the 60s when 18th in 2003 and Sabbatini has dropped more than enough hints that he could really take this tournament by the scruff of the neck one day.
In his current form, it could well be this week so back him at 16/1.
Another demon putter I like the look of is in-form Justin Leonard.
Leonard has been one of the US Tour's hottest players over the last few months, starting with his win in the Texas Open back in October.
He finished 2007 with a couple of top sixes in his next three starts and in 2008 he's gone 8-2-5.
That 2 should really have been a 1 after he blew a final round lead in the Bob Hope but the way he put it behind him when finishing fifth at Torrey Pines last week was impressive.
Leonard knows that in his current form more winning opportunities will follow soon and this week gives him another golden chance.
The former Open champ is a two-time runner-up (1996 and 1999) at Scottsdale and recent top 10s in 2004 and 2006 (fourth going into the final round) show that it's a course where he still thrives.
But it's his putter which could make the difference this time.
He's been in the top six in the putting stats in his last four starts and there have been times when he's never looked liked missing.
Leonard has built a great rapport with the rowdy Phoenix fans down the years and being able to deal with the noisiest galleries on Tour is important - especially as the decibel levels should be even higher this year with thousands of sports-mad fans likely to take in the action here before heading to the Super Bowl just down the road.
Course form, current form and a hot putter suggests Leonard should not be missed at 25/1.
At bigger odds, I shall also play one of the Tour's rising stars and one of the most experienced.
The news that the course is playing long after a severe drenching will certainly suit the big-hitting Camilo Villegas.
The Colombian is a massively popular figure with the crowds and took full advantage of a sponsor's exemption to finish runner-up here on his debut in 2006.
Villegas repeatedly described the atmosphere as "awesome" and hardly shied away from the attention on him by wearing yellow pants in round three.
Interestinglyly, he also pointed out how poorly he putted so to still finish second was some effort.
He's certainly looked much happier on the greens in the last few months and ended 2007 in bright fashion with three successive top 10s on the US Tour before claiming victory in the Tokai Classic in Japan.
After an extended break, Villegas blew away the cobwebs with a promising tied 13th place in the Buick Invitational last week where he finished 12th in both putting categories and also fourth in total birdies.
Despite struggling in 2006, Villegas tends to perform best on bermuda greens so should have plenty in his favour this week.
He's definitely a strong each-way shout at 50/1.
Kenny Perry is the one who could strike a blow for the old guard.
He's made the top 12 here six times in his last 12 visits, including finishing runner-up in 2002.
He made a genuine run at the title in the Bob Hope just two weeks ago and that third place finish left him confident about the future.
"I'm healthy still, I'm strong, I still hit it plenty far. I don't see why I can't compete out here," said Perry afterwards.
However, playing five rounds at such a slow pace may just have contributed to his missed cut at the Buick although having the weekend off could benefit him here on a course he knows like the back of his hand.
Perry confirmed at the Bob Hope that he plays well on desert courses and crucially, in terms of this week, he ranked second for putting.
The veteran American has topped the greens in regulation stats three times in this tournament so if we pull all the elements together he looks a very fair each-way bet at 60/1.
Preview posted at 1210GMT on 28/01/2008.
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