Ryan Palmer (right) - can contend here again.
PALMER CAN CASH IN
By Dave Tindall
Sky Bet's Odds
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BETTING BOX
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FIXED ODDS
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1pt e.w. Ryan Palmer at 100/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Can save US Tour card at a venue where he's finished first and third. |
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1pt e.w. Frank Lickliter II at 125/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Runner-up here last year after late charge and desperate to make top 125. |
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1pt e.w. Nick Watney at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). |
Finished fifth in 2006 and showing signs of a second win of 2007. |
It's the last-chance saloon for those trying to keep their cards as the US Tour heads to Disneyland in Florida for the season-closing Children's Miracle Network Classic.
Despite the change in name, the format is the same as usual - a 72-hole pro-am with three rounds at the long par-72 Magnolia and one at the much shorter par-72 Palms.
And, in a difficult week to predict, we'll take a punt on two of those outside the bubble who need a big performance to make the top 125.
First up is Ryan Palmer whose three appearances here have produced a win, a third and a tied 36th.
By definition of his poor position on the Money List (142nd) he can't bring much form to the table and the only thing of any note he's achieved in recent months is a third place in Canada.
But back at the venue where he posted his only US Tour win, Palmer could just spring to life again.
He's clearly at his best on these easy resort courses, enjoys pro-ams and is a proven late season performer.
Take a punt at 100/1.
At 138th, Frank Lickliter is also on the brink of losing his card but again this event gives him a chance of a last-gasp reprieve.
Lickliter finished like a train here last season, shooting 62 to claim tied second and there are hints of good things to come in his current form.
He was a solid tied 26th at last week's Ginn Classic and prior to that had opened with a 65 in the Fry's Electronics Open in Scottsdale.
He's had other good performances in Florida - a near-miss fourth at the Players Championship the most famous - and finished last season with three top fives in his last five events.
He may just have another big performance in him.
Finally, it certainly pays to demolish the par fives on these two courses and Joe Durant topped that category when winning last year after playing them in 13 under.
Nick Watney played them almost as well (-12) when finishing fifth and the young American is our final pick at 66s.
Watney made the big breakthrough when winning the Zurich Classic of New Orleans back in April and it's worth noting that was also played on a long par 72 with bermuda greens and plenty of water in play.
Looking at his stats, Watney hits it a mile but not too straight and his recent putting stats are much better than his seasonal figures.
As for his recent form, a pair of closing 66s gave him a top 15 in the Texas Open while he was sixth at halfway in Vegas before fading and ninth going into the final round of the Fry's Electronics Open before crashing to a 79.
True, he's hit and miss in the final round but the way he closed out his win in New Orleans suggests he has got the killer instinct when the pressure is on.
Preview posted at 1420GMT on 30/10/2007.
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