Villegas - can score first win.

By Dave Tindall

Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1pt e.w. Camilo Villegas at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Played some fine golf in Canada last week and could be ready to post first win.
	1pt e.w. Nathan Green at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Six top tens this year and another who could follow in Jason Gore's footsteps and score breakthrough win.
	1pt e.w. Scott Gutschewski at 150/1 (Blue Square, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Impressive stats in 2006 and has three top 11s in recent times. This is a good event for outsiders.
	1pt e.w. Ben Curtis at 125/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5).	Plenty of good rounds at Mystic Rock and top 20 last week. Already a winner this year.

Without doubt, the three runnings of the 84 Lumber Classic at Mystic Rock have been hugely profitable for outsiders.

Last year two 150/1 shots - Jason Gore and Carlos Franco - led the field home while in 2003 JL Lewis scored at 66/1 with Frank Lickliter the 125/1 runner-up.

True, Vijay Singh obliged when favourite in 2004 but he was winning everything at that time. Even then, 125/1 Jonathan Byrd and 200/1 Pat Perez also made the frame.

So this is a week where we'll swerve the obvious names at the front end of the betting.

Our headline pick is Camilo Villegas.

I've spent a bit of cash this season trying to catch the young Colombian's first win but he's worth perservering with.

A tied fifth in Canada last week suggests the breakthrough could be close again and, as with some of our other picks this week, perhaps he'll take some inspiration from fellow Nationwide Tour graduate Gore, who memorably pulled off his first US Tour win here 12 months ago.

Villegas posted top three finishes at Phoenix, Doral and Sawgrass in the first three months of the season but then experienced a lull so typical of young players trying to establish themselves at the top level.

But the top five in Canada suggests he can really push on again.

Although he missed the cut on his only start here two years ago, he's made giant strides since.

It was a little worrying to here him talking about "drastic swing changes" in Canada but he's obviously a fast learner as he finished in the top 10 for Greens In Regulation last week.

He was actually first on the All-Around ranking at Hamilton G&CC so if it all clicks again he can be a big factor on Sunday.

With relatively little course form to go on, it makes sense to look to players with some good recent form behind them and Aussie Nathan Green fits the bill.

Most pundits thought he'd have a job securing his card this year but it's now a case of will he finish in the top 30 on the US Money List and earn a place in the Tour Championship?

Green is currently 33rd in earnings after six top tens this season and three top 20s in his last four starts suggests he has every chance of making it to the end of term party at East Lake.

One potential drawback is that Green is 155th in Driving Distance and Mystic Rock now measures in at over 7,500 yards.

But so was Torrey Pines North and it was at the Buick Invitational where Green had his closest brush with victory, losing in a play-off against Tiger Woods and Jose Maria Olazabal.

Plenty of other short hitters have done well at Mystic Rock in the past so Green can join them. Take him at 66/1.

Next up is a player who I know for a fact I've never tipped or backed before - Scott Gutschewski.

The American only has partial status for 2006 but he's done his best to cash in when playing the full Tour in recent months. He finished 10th at the Western Open and sixth at the BC Open in July and added an 11th at the Reno-Tahoe Open last month.

Last week he returned to the Nationwide Tour and kept his game ticking over with a tied 13th and just maybe he can make a mark here.

Gutschewski is ranked No.1 in Total Driving this year, 31st in Greens In Regulation, 22nd in putting and 18th on the All-Around ranking so he has some good stats behind him.

He's 151st on the US Money List so needs to bank a big cheque to get his card for 2007 and this certainly gives him a good chance of doing that.

Give him a go at 150s.

Finally, I'll take a chance on former Open champ Ben Curtis at 125s.

Curtis is already a winner in 2006 after beating the field by five shots in the Booz Allen Classic.

That was his first win since his 2003 Open success at Sandwich so obviously Curtis wins are rare birds indeed.

So why back him here?

Well, for starters he played nicely to finish tied 20th in Canada last week.

And, secondly, he has some interesting course form at Mystic Rock.

In 2003 he finished tied 16th and the following year was sitting second at halfway after two opening 67s. A bizarre 81 ruined his chances and that was even more frustrating given that he closed with a 68.

It was more Jekyll and Hyde stuff last year as he shot 69-78 to miss the cut.

"I'm hitting the ball good where I feel like I can contend. I've just got to putt better," said Curtis at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational last month.

There were definitely signs of improvement on the greens in Canada last week so if the flatstick heats up Curtis could prove a dangerous customer on a course where he has a track record of shooting good numbers.