Ferguson - won't want to lose after Leeds loss.

By Andy Schooler

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	2pts first goal to come during or after the 27th minute at 23/20 (Victor Chandler).	Neither side is scoring early of late, while things likely to be tight in first leg.

I'll get my excuse in first - Carling Cup ties have been notoriously difficult to predict in recent years, largely because rarely can anyone be sure what the strength of the line-ups will be.

However, having said that you would imagine that the two teams on show at Eastlands on Tuesday night will be pretty strong.

First of all, this is a local derby and one Sir Alex Ferguson will not want to lose, especially following United's recent FA Cup embarrassment at the hands of another of their long-standing rivals, Leeds.

Secondly, City, without the distraction of Europe, have not been overloaded with fixtures this season and in any case have plenty of squad depth. They will probably want to shake things up a bit given Saturday's disappointing display at Everton, but the players they have waiting in the wings would fit in most Premier League sides.

Finally, this is arguably both clubs' priority this week. Fergie shouldn't be too concerned when he looks ahead to the weekend and sees Hull, a side winless on their travels this term, at home on his fixture list. Neither does Scunthorpe away in the FA Cup look the toughest of games for City.

If you accept that both sides are likely to go in pretty strong, City's odds of 6/4 compared to United's at 2/1 look about right.

The home side have not lost at home in 17 matches now, while United's problems on the road this season, which are threatening to undermine their title bid, have been well highlighted.

Remembering this is just the first leg of this semi-final tie, there may well be some interest on the low side of the over-under goals market.

Under 2.5 is 10/11 with William Hill and when you consider the last three fixtures between these two at Eastlands have all resulted in 1-0 scorelines, that could be good value.

City looked feeble going forward at Goodison, while although United have banged eight in their last two at Old Trafford, they haven't been firing on all cylinders on their travels. A draw here would also suit them fine you suspect with the home leg to come next week.

An obvious word of warning though with this market. The sides' previous meeting was a classic ding-dong affair which ended 4-3. A repeat looks unlikely given the two-leg nature of the tie, although we accept people may be a little nervous.

So if you don't fancy that bet, an involvement in the 'time of the first goal' market also looks like it could reap rewards.

We've already suggested this match is likely to be a tight affair and so we're not expecting an early goal. This is backed up by the sides' recent stats.

In their last 10 games, United have not scored a goal before the 28th minute. City have managed that twice in their last 12 - again hardly a convincing case for an early strike.

The concession stats are slightly less convincing but still they remain in our favour - only two other City games have seen them concede inside 28 minutes, while three of United's have.

Victor Chandler offer 23/20 about the first goal coming during or after the 27th minute and, for us, this is the best bet for the game.