A repeat of Barca's romp last season looks unlikely.
SWING LOW IN THE CLASICO
By Mike Holden
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Barcelona v Real Madrid - Sky Sports 1 (Sunday 1800 GMT)
The game the whole world's been waiting for.
That's how the Spanish media are building up Sunday's Clasico at the Camp Nou and it's hard to avoid becoming wrapped up in the excitement of it all.
It's only a shame that the betting markets aren't being priced up according to the never-ending line of pundits who Marca have wheeled out this week to predict the outcome. As a collective, they make the home win about 7/4 with the total goals spread averaging out at somewhere around the 4.6 mark!
Mind you, the bookies aren't far behind when it comes to wild expectations in terms of how many times the net will bulge.
Everybody seems to be anticipating a goalfest but we reckon goals will be in short supply and the best bet to be found on fixed odds terms is the 4/1 on under 1.5 goals with bet365 and Sportingbet.
Rather than recall the freak (but thoroughly deserved) 6-2 victory for Barca at the Bernabeu six months ago, focus instead on the 82 blank minutes in the corresponding fixture last December and consider the circumstantial evidence that now provides both teams with reasons to be wary.
Madrid will be wary because they lead the table by one point, they are away from home and they received Barca's message loud and clear against Inter Milan in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Barca will be wary because they have doubts over the fitness of key players, they know how well Madrid can counter-attack and they understand that the Merengues possess the individual quality to cancel out 20 minutes of breathtaking football with one moment of sublime magic.
With that in mind, we won't hesitate to back up our instincts with a point on no goalscorer at the monster price of 18/1 because the longer this game stays goalless, the more the tension will rise and the more minds will shrink towards being focused rather than inspired.
Atletico Madrid v Espanyol - Sky Sports 1 (Sunday 2000 GMT)
The two teams who probably couldn't care less about the Clasico have once again been handed the dubious honour of taking to the stage straight after main event and the anticipation of a gross anti-climax is only intensified by the lack of confidence on both sides.
Atletico have bagged only one win in 16 attempts in the Primera Liga and Champions League, which, quite frankly, makes general 8/11 quotes about the home win laughable.
However, the fact we're going to turn our nose up at the offer of 4/1 on the away win is a damning assessment of how things are panning out for Espanyol.
The Catalans have found the net just nine times in 13 attempts, firing eight blanks in total and winning just once in nine matches since mid-September.
Last weekend, they fell to a miserable 2-0 defeat on home soil at the hands of Getafe in a game was that billed as a revenge mission for Mauricio Pochettino's men after being dumped out of the Copa del Rey by the same opposition earlier this month.
If we were forced to recommend a bet, it would be Kun Aguero to get himself on the scoresheet at 11/8 after bagging four goals in his last four appearances but we have enough on our plate this weekend, so we'll give this game a wide berth.
Best of the rest:
Week 12 throws up a handful of tempting prices away from the televised action and best of the bunch could be Racing Santander to beat Deportivo La Coruna at El Sardinero.
The Cantabrians have endured a difficult campaign to date and their home has been particularly abysmal but they have drawn a line under all of that with the dismissal of Juan Carlos Mandia and now punters should wipe the slate clean for new arrival Miguel Angel Portugal.
To be frank, Mandia didn't have the credentials for the job in the first place having never managed at Primera level, so it was always going to be a big ask for him to make an impression following a mass exodus of key players in the summer.
However, Portugal arrives with instant respect having guided Racing to a top-half finish three seasons ago and the first impressions were pretty good with a decent showing in the narrow defeat at Real Madrid last weekend.
Deportivo continue to punch above their weight under Miguel Angel Lotina and added the scalp of Atletico Madrid to those of Sevilla and Villarreal at the Riazor last weekend but they often to struggle when expected to brush aside weaker opponents.
Indeed, this game appears to be a replica of the supposedly routine situation facing them at Valladolid last month. They lost that game 4-0 and the Galicians are worth taking on at 17/10.
Finally, throw a few quid on Almeria to beat Athletic Bilbao at 5/4.
The Andalusians had a real good go at Real Mallorca last weekend and were on top for long spells while the scores were level until two late goals preserved the islanders 100% record at San Moix.
However, Hugo Sanchez's men could play only half as well and we would still fancy their chances of beating an Athletic side who don't always travel well and will almost certainly perform with one eye on Thursday's potentially decisive Europa League away fixture with Austria Vienna.
The Basque club are deriving a lot of joy from their first European campaign in nearly two decades and they need a point from that game to qualify for the knockout phase and avoid nerve-jangling final group game against group leaders Werder Bremen.
Indeed, if past experience is anything to go by, we should probably expect Joaquin Caparros to rest several key players on Sunday.
Preview posted at 1100 GMT on 27/11/2009.
