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Picture Vidic - big price to score anytime.

NO DREAM START FOR GRANT

By Ben Linfoot

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BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
3pts West Ham to beat Burnley at 5/6 (general). Hammers have the chance to improve their league position against poor-travellers Burnley.
1pt Clint Dempsey to score anytime v Bolton at 12/5 (Paddy Power). In-form striker a big price for a side who are very strong at home.
2pts Man City (-2) to beat Hull on the handicap at 2/1 (Sky Bet). Frustrated City can put leaky Hull to the sword.
1pt Nemanja Vidic to score anytime v Portsmouth at 8/1 (Paddy Power). Big price as Pompey struggle at set-pieces.

Aston Villa v Spurs

A real crunch clash in prospect here with both teams having realistic chances of pushing for a top four place. Spurs come into this on the back of that 9-1 mauling of Wigan and a win for Harry Redknapp's team would put them six points clear of Villa. However, Martin O'Neill's team have been very solid at home, winning four and drawing one since their shock opening day defeat against Wigan. Chelsea and Liverpool have been among their victims this season so they can raise themselves for the big teams and Spurs' exciting squad certainly fits into that bracket these days. I do fear there is a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde element to Spurs though. For all the attacking brilliance they showed against Wigan, it isn't long since they defended like a Sunday League side in the 3-0 defeat at Arsenal and they've lost to every decent team they've faced this season (Chelsea, Man Utd and the Gunners). I must admit I'm struggling to call this one and I couldn't be confident enough to lay my cash on any outcome, but would plump for the draw if forced into a bookies.

Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Spurs 1

Blackburn v Stoke

Blackburn were well beaten in the end at Fulham on Wednesday but they were the better side in the first half and back at Ewood Park they should go well in their pursuit of a fifth straight home win. The problem is, this promises to be a tough battle between two strong, physical teams so odds-on quotes about Rovers hardly set the pulse racing. Stoke have won one in six away from home so the 10/3 about them isn't a great price either so the value could lie with the draw in the win market at 12/5. Stoke are tough to beat anywhere and they have picked up three draws away from home this season at Everton, Bolton and Birmingham - three teams who probably pose a similar threat to Blackburn. Two of those games ended 1-1 and that's surprisingly the favourite in the correct score market at 11/2 despite Blackburn being odds-on to win the game. That's a touch short so we'll leave it alone from a punting perspective.

Verdict: Blackburn 1 Stoke 1

Fulham v Bolton

Craven Cottage remains a tough place to go as Blackburn found out in midweek and you have to fear for Bolton who appear to be back in a rut. A hard-fought 3-2 win over Everton for Gary Megson's team seems a long time ago now and they have lost to Chelsea (4-0, twice), Aston Villa (5-1) and Blackburn (2-0) since then. They could be on the end of another hiding here but the bookies aren't so generous about Fulham this time - the odds-against quotes we took against Blackburn are nowhere to be seen and I think we can find better value than the 10/11 on offer. Clint Dempsey has scored five in his last six games and looked really sharp against Blackburn when he grabbed a brace. I looked at his anytime scorer odds fearing 7/4 or worse, but was pleasantly surprised to see him priced up at 12/5 with Paddy Power. Fulham could get a few here and dempsey's in such good form those odds seem over-generous.

Verdict: Fulham 3 Bolton 1

Manchester City v Hull

Manchester City have won only one game in their last eight in the Premier League but I reckon they could cut loose against Hull on Saturday. They've been drawing plenty but scoring hasn't been a problem and it's difficult to see Hull troubling their defenders too much. They might've beaten an injury-hit Everton 3-2 in midweek but they've only scored four times away from home all season and they might struggle to get worthwhile possession against City. All the frustration from the last month or so could be let out here and when you've got an attack as good as Manchester City's a big win is likely to come sooner rather than later. Sky Bet offer 2/1 about Mark Hughes' team (-2) on the handicap and with plenty of goals expected, that could prove to be a generous price.

Verdict: Manchester City 5 Hull City 1

Portsmouth v Manchester United

Avram Grant's first game in charge could hardly be tougher and despite the new manager factor this could well be an early taste of the tough times that are ahead. You can't help but feel Paul Hart has been hard done by, after all, he didn't do such a bad job considering the boardroom turmoil and the amount of first-team players shipped out of Portsmouth. Relegation, though, has been staring Pompey in the face from the first whistle of the season and even their best efforts aren't likely to be good enough against Manchester United. Sir Alex Ferguson sent out his second string to lose to Besiktas in midweek but the big guns will be back at Fratton Park and you'd have to fancy them to land odds of 2/5. Darren Fletcher scored in this fixture last season and he scored a belter against Everton, but quotes of 11/2 don't really appeal as he doesn't get amongst the goals with regularity. We prefer the 8/1 about Nemanja Vidic scoring anytime as Pompey have had a few problems defending set-pieces all season. Ryan Nelsen and Ledley King have scored from headers at corners in the last month or so and Vidic could be just the player to take advantage here.

Verdict: Portsmouth 0 Manchester United 3

West Ham v Burnley

West Ham have impressed at times this season despite their proximity to the relegation zone and I've been waiting to get with them at the right opportunity. For me, they are in a false position at fourth from bottom and they will soon motor away from their place in the standings - starting against Burnley on Saturday. They have four winnable games in their next six and it's time for Gianfranco Zola's men to build on the promise they showed when finishing ninth last term. They had a real tough run of home games at the start of the season, with Spurs and Liverpool winning at Upton Park before London rivals Fulham and Arsenal took away points after 2-2 draws. A last-minute win over Aston Villa came next and while their latest home game was a 2-1 defeat against Everton, they were a touch unlucky and looked the better side for long periods. With no disrespect to Burnley, who have so far defied expectations with their results, this is the first home fixture West Ham have had where they can really stamp their class. And for all Burnley's success so far this season, away from home they have looked vulnerable. They even conceded three at Manchester City where they earnt their only away point of the campaign, and 20 goals conceded in six road games is a real concern for Owen Coyle. 5/6 about West Ham may not appeal to some but I think they should be much shorter and would be but for a tough start to the season. With Carlton Cole back leading the attack they look a cracking bet and should be backed accordingly.

Verdict: West Ham 4 Burnley 1

Wigan v Sunderland

Wigan were so shambolic against Spurs in the 9-1 mauling last Sunday it's difficult to guess how they will react against Sunderland. Fortunately they've taken a couple of heavy beatings already this season (though nothing on the scale of events at White Hart Lane), so we can see how they reacted to those. After they were thrashed 5-0 by Manchester United, they lost 4-1 at Blackpool and then 2-1 at Everton. But following their previous battering in London (4-0 at Arsenal) they responded with a stunning 3-1 win over Chelsea. Sunderland are building notoriety under Steve Bruce, but they have been brittle away from home against teams they should be doing better against according to their burgeoning reputation. They have lost at Stoke, Burnley and Birmingham but drew at Manchester United - a curious record that might suggest they are more comfortable as the underdog on their travels. I think that they might be happier sitting back as a unit and breaking with the pace of Darren Bent, and I would prefer to back them at fancy prices against the better teams than row in with them at compressed odds against the likes of Wigan. 6/4 the Latics would be the bet if pressed, but I'm happy to leave this one alone.

Verdict: Wigan 2 Sunderland 1

  • Preview posted at 1700 GMT on 26/11/2009.


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    ODDS COMPARISON SERVICE
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