Apono and Malaga can bag a much-needed win.
BIG TROUBLE FOR REAL TRIO
By Mike Holden
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Malaga v Real Zaragoza - Sky Sports 2 (Sunday 1800 GMT)
Talk about second season syndrome.
It's difficult to pinpoint how Malaga have gone from Europa League contenders to propping up the rest of the league in the space of six months but it's an understatement to say they are in a false position at the moment and the 11/8 on them beating Real Zaragoza looks decent value here.
The Costa del Sol outfit have failed to win any of their last nine league matches but that doesn't tell the whole story because they've played rather well in the last three matches.
Narrow defeats against Villarreal and Valencia are nothing to be ashamed of, while coming from two goals down to draw in a different time zone against Tenerife should also be viewed as a positive.
It could be argued that Antonio Tapia's defection to Real Betis in the summer was always bound to prevent them from repeating the heroics of last season but replacement Juan Ramon Lopez Muniz is no mug, as the subsequent demise of his previous club Racing Santander might now illustrate.
With the likes of Apono, Albert Luque and Nabil Baha still bombing forward at every opportunity, the Andalusians boast a greater goal threat than most outside the top six and it's surely only a matter of time before the reported 5,000 English season ticket holders can celebrate a comfortable victory.
Zaragoza, for their part, look rather out of sorts at the minute.
Big things were expected of the Aragon club purely because of who was in charge.Manager Marcelino arrived with a big reputation after guiding relative minnows Recreativo and Racing to successive top 10 finishes but he just hasn't had the breaks this time around and we might now be made to sweat on our hefty even-money season match bet with Almeria.
Either way, it's difficult to fancy them in this one based upon the evidence of recent displays. If they defend as high up the pitch as they did in their last outing against Valencia, then the pace in the Malaga forward line could exploit them almost as much as David Villa and Pablo Hernandez.
Best of the rest:
So we've made the case for opposing Real Zaragoza in the televised game on Sunday evening and there's a couple of other clubs with the royal seal of approval who could come a cropper earlier in the day.
Real Valladolid have looked shaky from a defensive point of view for most of the season and it's difficult to envisage them resisting the resurgent force of Villarreal at El Madrigal.
The Yellow Submarine have looked formidable as an attacking entity since breaking their duck against Malaga in week eight with Tenerife and Lazio subsequently being walloped for a combined total of nine goals in the following two home matches.
The revival of Ernesto Valverde's men was halted by Sevilla in a breathtaking match at the Sanchez Pizjuan a fortnight ago but anybody who witnessed the football played by both sides in that pulsating encounter will not allow the outcome to distract them from the quality of this bet.
Clearly, Villarreal should be punching their weight towards the top of the league alongside the Andalusians and local rivals Valencia, and though they still reside some 12 points off the Champions League reckoning, they will feel it's a gap they can close on current form.
The home win is generally available at 4/6 and that's more than acceptable when you consider the price would have been no better than 1/2 had this fixture been played at virtually any stage last season.
Meanwhile, the price is also right to oppose Real Mallorca at home.
The islanders boast an immaculate record of five wins out of five at San Moix, which is pretty impressive - until you list the opposition.
Xerez, Tenerife, Valladolid, Getafe and Racing Santander make up the string of Estadi Ono casualties to date and while Almeria hardly rank as superior in the attacking stakes, they can be pretty stubborn when they want to be and merit a small interest at 4/1 for that reason alone.
Some early research, though inconclusive, tends to support the hunch that draws are rare in la Primera when the visitors are considered to be significantly inferior and we reckon some stout defending from Hugo Sanchez's men could be rewarded with easy pickings on the counter attack.
Preview posted at 1000GMT on 20/11/2009
