Martinez's Wigan look the value at White Hart Lane.
LATICS BIG VALUE TO STUN SPURS
By Jonathan Turner
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Bolton v Blackburn
You'd normally expect home advantage to have an effect in derby fixtures, but not this one. In the last eight Premier League seasons just once in 16 matches between this pair have the hosts come out on top. That was Blackburn's 4-1 victory in 2008 which was the only occasion in that time span that either side has won by more than the odd goal. It's Rovers who have held sway as they are unbeaten in the last five but in truth there's rarely been much between them, with no fewer than nine of those games ending with honours even. And that looks the obvious call heading into Sunday's fixture as just two points and two places separate them in the table. And though recent history might nudge us towards Blackburn, their away record this term certainly doesn't as it's P5 W0 D0 L5 GF3 GA18. In mitigation the last three of those matches have been at the top three of Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal but it's still got to be a concern for potential backers. Then again it's not as if Bolton come into the match in prime form either after three straight defeats and by a 13-1 aggregate margin. In the circumstances a point apiece wouldn't be the worst result for either side and at 23/10 that's where our money will be.
Verdict: Bolton 1 Blackburn 1
Stoke City v Portsmouth
Stoke's draw with Wolves in their last home fixture was a real rarity - the first time this season they've dropped points at the Britannia against a side outside the 'big four'. They were 2-0 up in the game too and the Potters were again guilty of letting a lead slip in their last match as they went down 2-1 at struggling Hull so confidence may just be a little brittle heading into this. However they face the only side lower than Wolves in the table in the shape of Pompey so there will be plenty of people pleasantly surprised to see some odds against about a home win. Portsmouth's mini-revival came to a halt at Blackburn last time as the second-half introduction of Jason Roberts saw Rovers roar back from 1-0 down to win 3-1 but there's little doubt their performances had been showing a marked improvement. Normally we'd be all over Stoke at 11/10 because since making it to the top flight they haven't lost at home to a side in the bottom half of the table (nine games last season, two this term). However their recent blip and Pompey's upward momentum are just enough to put us off getting involved on the 90-minute market. On this occasion a better way to try and profit from the match is getting 8/11 about under 2.5 goals which would have collected in nine of the last 12 league games at the Britannia and 10 of Pompey's last 12 away from Fratton Park.
Verdict: Stoke 1 Portsmouth 0
Tottenham v Wigan
Spurs got things back on track with a 2-0 victory over Sunderland last time but anyone who saw that match will be fully aware they were extremely flattered by the scoreline. The Black Cats had plenty of chances to take the lead and then missed a penalty early in the second half when 1-0 behind. Spurs have got Jermain Defoe available again for this but it's the continued absence of Luka Modric which means they can't be backed with any confidence at present, especially at prices no better than 1/2. And though Wigan are in the wrong half of the table, the Latics have still produced a couple of performances this season which mark them out as dangerous opponents when on song, winning 2-0 at Aston Villa on the opening day and also beating leaders Chelsea. They are also the only side to get anything out of a trip to Turf Moor against newly-promoted Burnley so there will be plenty of worse 15/2 shots on the coupon this weekend. The fact the game has been put back to Sunday probably boosts the Latics more too as it gives the likes of Colombia's Hugo Rodallega and Honduran Hendry Thomas more time to recover from their recent international trips and we'll back them for an upset by taking the 11/2 in the 'draw no bet' market.
Verdict: Tottenham 1 Wigan 2
Preview posted at 1745GMT on 19/11/2009
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