Moore - Rotherham side on the slide.
MILLERS TO BUCKLE AT PLAINMOOR
By Mike Holden
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No prizes for guessing the headline tip in League Two this weekend. If you've been following our coverage in recent weeks, you'll already know exactly where our money is going.
The most under-rated team in the division plays host to the most over-rated on Saturday and Sky Bet haven't let us down with a jaw-dropping 9/4 quote on Torquay beating Rotherham at Plainmoor.
Indeed, it's difficult to know where to begin with this one.
Do we build our case around the fact that Torquay are unbeaten in eight matches? Or do we focus on Rotherham's gradual decline and just two wins in seven league outings under Ronnie Moore?
Do we explain how the Gulls have triumphed in more than half of their home games under Paul Buckle over the past two-and-a-half years? Or do we highlight Moore's personal record of defeat in more than half of his away games over the same timescale?
Or maybe we could just point to the five-hour journey that the Millers must take from South Yorkshire down to Devon and leave it at that.
Of course, the layers are devoting their attention entirely on the fact that Rotherham are fourth from the top and Torquay are third from the bottom, but since when has the league table been such a reliable indicator of future results?
As if to emphasise the possibility that this bet is a gift from the punting gods, the two teams also suffered contrasting fortunes a week ago with the record books showing that Rotherham had the better afternoon.
However, both games were heavily influenced by red cards midway through while scores were still level and the moral plaudits didn't tally with the points acquired thereafter.
Torquay were reduced to 10 men at Shrewsbury when Keiran Charnock was dismissed for a rash tackle that probably warranted no more than a yellow but the Gulls still managed to keep it tight and get their noses in front late on before being pegged back in the closing stages.
Meanwhile, Rotherham had a half-time team-talk and a full half to go at Port Vale after Luke Prosser was given his marching orders for a second yellow card but they never really looked like taking advantage until Nicky Law tried his luck from distance in the 92nd minute and profited from a deflection.
So this game is much more in the balance than prices would suggest and a punt on the home win seems like a no-brainer from a value perspective.
Elsewhere, Bury deserve our support to complete the job that Torquay couldn't quite finish with victory over Shrewsbury at the New Meadow.
These two teams have history with each other, of course, with Paul Simpson's men denying the Shakers a trip to Wembley in the play-offs last season and we should expect the visitors to be using the pain of that penalty shoot-out disappointment as a motivational tool ahead of this encounter.
Salop have lost most of their key performers from last season but Alan Knill has strengthened the quality of the personnel at his disposal, so we should have few doubts about Bury finishing the season in a higher position once again.
It's taken a while for everything to come together but three points would allow the Lancashire club to leapfrog the hosts and climb into the top seven for the first time this term, completing a 10-match unbeaten league sequence in the process.
The Shakers have bagged an average of two goals per game since mid-September and a continuation of that trend would almost certainly be enough to deliver the spoils here.
Shrewsbury have only mustered three goals in the last nine hours when they haven't been benefitting from a numerical advantage and you suspect the fans are just waiting for an opportunity to really vent their displeasure in the wake of the recent FA Cup humiliation against Staines.
Preview posted at 1710GMT on 19/11/2009
