Agger - threat from set-pieces.

By Ben Linfoot and Gareth Friel

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BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1pt Chelsea and Wolves to draw at 7/1 (Sky Bet)	Chelsea have injury problems while Wolves are improving.
	2pts Birmingham to beat Fulham at 6/4 (bet365, Paddy Power)	Birmingham fairly solid at home while Fulham have been sloppy on their travels.
	1pt Daniel Agger to score anytime v Man City at 10/1 (Paddy Power)	Is a threat from set-pieces, an area in which City are weak.
	1pt over 3.5 goals in Burnley v Aston Villa at 11/5 (Boylesports, sportingbet)	Seven of Burnley's last nine would have covered this bet.
	2pts Hull to beat West Ham at 15/8 (bet365)	Hull unbeaten in three at home and full of confidence.

Birmingham v Fulham

Birmingham come into this buoyed by their point at Anfield before the international break and they look a decent bet at 6/4 to see off Fulham. Alex McLeish's team have lost to late goals against Bolton and Aston Villa, but they have won two and drawn two from their other home games and in the main their performances at St Andrews have been satisfactory. That might be good enough to see off Fulham, who continue to prosper at home but let themselves down on their travels. They have failed to win away from home since their opening day victory at Portsmouth, though they have some way to go before they match their dreadful away run of a couple of seasons ago. To be fair, they've only lost two road games this season, but they have a tendency to start slowly and that's a real concern. They conceded the first goal in recent away draws at Wigan, Manchester City and West Ham, but they may not be so lucky should the same happen at St Andrews. Birmingham may only average a point a game this season, but their conversion rate once they get their noses in front is 100 per cent (three from three) and there is every chance they'll strike first against sloppy Fulham.

Verdict: Birmingham 1 Fulham 0 (BL)

Burnley v Aston Villa

This really is a tough one to call. Burnley have a superb home record so far, just ask Manchester United, Everton, Sunderland, Birmingham and Hull, all of whom have been put to the sword at Turf Moor. Their only blip has been a 3-1 defeat to Wigan. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are a good side on the break, having won at Liverpool and Birmingham and picked up draws at Wolves and Everton in their six games. And last season's superb away record included wins over promoted sides in West Brom and Hull so they are more than capable of repeating that against Burnley. Owen Coyle's men surely should not be priced up at 5/2 to win his game. The Clarets have tremendous character in their ranks, bouncing back from their first home loss to defeat Hull and pick up their first away point at Manchester City. I just can't split these two and although I'm tempted to get on the 5/2 about a Burnley win, I'm going to go for goals. The home side will have a go as they always do, while Villa's tactics are perfect for picking off Coyle's men on the break. Seven of Burnley's last nine in all competitions have produced over 3.5 goals and that has to be worth a flutter here at 11/5.

Verdict: Burnley 2 Aston Villa 2 (GF)

Chelsea v Wolves

Chelsea have a perfect home record with six wins from six games in the Premier League. They have scored 16 goals and conceded one. Saturday's opponents Wolves sit second bottom, thanks in part to conceding an average of two goals per away game. Chelsea are 1/6 to win the game and rightly so. However, we reckon the 7/1 about Wolves stealing a draw is overpriced and here's why. Chelsea are missing four key players in Jose Bosingwa, Frank Lampard, Michael Ballack and Didier Drogba. Bar their drubbing at home to Arsenal last time, Wolves have been improving in recent weeks. Their draws against Everton, Aston Villa and Stoke prove they are learning at the top level, as such results wouldn't have been achieved with the somewhat naive performances they put in at Sunderland (where they were admittedly unlucky to lose 5-2) and particularly Blackburn. Chelsea have come close to letting down odds-on backers on a couple of occassions this season, with last minute goals getting them out of trouble against Hull and Stoke. Their frailties were exposed against Aston Villa and Wigan where they lost. Three of those games were away, but two of them (Villa and Stoke) came after international breaks and this is an angle I'm keen to buy into. Did they come back rusty? Perhaps. The four key injuries I mentioned certainly won't help, and while a Wolves win might be asking too much we'll have a little nibble at the draw.

Verdict: Chelsea 1 Wolves 1 (BL)

Hull City v West Ham

Hull's last-gasp win over Stoke last time out may have kept Phil Brown in a job for now but defeat in this one and his reign at the KC may be over. The Tigers head into the game just a point ahead of the Hammers and a loss would send them back into the relegation zone. It may not be a 'must-win' but it certainly is a 'must not lose' for the home side. Gianfranco Zola is also a man under pressure. West Ham were expected to push on under the Italian this season but find themselves third from bottom, although they have picked up in recent weeks. They fought back bravely from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Arsenal before blowing a two-goal lead of their own at Sunderland for another 2-2 draw. They followed that up with an impressive 2-1 win over Aston Villa but lost last time out at home to Everton, despite playing pretty well. Hull are unbeaten in their last three at home, winning two of them and that's the sort of form required if they are to have a chance of staying in the top-flight. As long as they are fighting for Brown's future, they may well have the edge over their rivals, certainly at home. The Hammers have won only once on their travels and that was at Wolves on the opening day of the season. Since then they've lost to Wigan, Man City and Stoke and I fancy Hull to be added to that list by Saturday evening. Hull struggled at home for large parts of last season but their ten points from six games at the KC is worthy of a mid-table side. Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink has added an extra dimension to the attack (he has scored twice in four home games) and his late winner against Stoke should mean the Tigers go into this one full of confidence. 15/8 on a home win against a side with one of the worst away records in the league looks good value to me.

Verdict: Hull 2 West Ham 1 (GF)

Liverpool v Manchester City

This could be a vital game come the end of the season regarding the Champions League places and a win for Liverpool would take them back above Manchester City. It's looking likely they'll be without Fernando Torres, but Steven Gerrard, Glen Johnson and Daniel Agger should be fit which will be a relief to Rafael Benitez. Liverpool's home form hasn't suffered despite their poor start to the season, with the draw against Birmingham the first points dropped at Anfield this term. Considering the possession and chances they had that night, it's a game they really should have won. Their trouble has been conceding goals, particularly from set pieces, but Manchester City are just as guilty in that respect. There could be plenty of goalmouth action then on Saturday, with bets such as over 3.5 goals and correct scores such as 3-2 and 4-2 Liverpool at fancy prices worth considering. However, with goals likely we'll chance Agger to get on the scoresheet any time at 10/1 with Paddy Power. His injuries have kept him from a prolonged run in the team for much of the last year or so, but he's proven in the past he can strike one from distance and he's dangerous at set-pieces too. With his latest fitness bulletin a positive one, he's likely to line up and at the prices is a spot of value in the goalscorer markets.

Verdict: Liverpool 3 Manchester City 2 (BL)

Manchester United v Everton

Everton were 3-0 winners at Old Trafford in the first Premier League season of 1992 - but haven't repeated the feat in 16 subsequent visits there. They will take heart from the fact it took only Cristiano Ronaldo penalties to beat them on the last two occasions and from United's performances at Old Trafford following international breaks this season - far from convincing victories over Birmingham and Bolton respectively. But the Toffees themselves have not won any of their three after World Cup qualifying action whiletheir 2-1 win at West Ham last time out was their first success in seven. United haven't been at their best this season but after going down to defeat at Chelsea two weeks ago this one is a "must-win" for Sir Alex Ferguson's side. Three of United's five wins over Everton since David Moyes was appointed have been by a solitary goal and United to win by one does appeal at 13/5 but it's not something we'll be rushing to back.

Verdict: Manchester United 2 Everton 1 (GF)

Sunderland v Arsenal

At first glance this looks a really tough one to call. Sunderland have an impressive home record winning four of six so far while the Gunners have been erratic on the road, losing twice already. But when you look at the opponents Sunderland have faced at the Stadium of Light, their record shouldn't scare Arsenal at all. They were well beaten by Chelsea and defeated Liverpool thanks to that Darren Bent goal but their other four games have come against teams in the current bottom seven, teams they should be beating. Arsenal's two away losses came at Manchester United (a game in which they were extremely unlucky) and Manchester City while they drew at West Ham having led 2-0. Performance-wise, Arsenal have been arguably the best side in the Premier League so far and you have to fancy them to get the three points in this one, even without the injured Robin van Persie. Niall Quinn grabbed the winner in this fixture in 2000 but since then Sunderland have lost four of the subsequent six at home (including a League Cup tie) and have only managed two goals. Games like this won't have too much of a bearing on Sunderland's season while if Arsenal hope to genuinely challenge for the title, they need to repeat Chelsea's success in the opening week of the season. We reckon they will do so, but unfortunately the bookies agree and at 8/13 this one is best left to the big hitters.

Verdict: Sunderland 0 Arsenal 2 (GF)