Hull - can score another famous away win.
HULL WORTH A FESTIVE FLUTTER
By Dave Tindall and Jonathan Turner
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Aston Villa v Arsenal
Villa gained a deserved win at The Emirates in mid-November and will be popular with punters at 13/8 to complete the double. However, one of the themes of this Premier League season is that the top teams appear to prefer playing away from home where they have more space and can hit teams on the break. Villa, with six away wins to just four at home, have been part of that trend while a win for Arsenal would mean they've taken just as many points on the road as they have at home. Villa go into the game three points above the Gunners so Arsene Wenger would feel very anxious if that gap doubled to six as the prospect of Villa gatecrashing the top four would grown even stronger. Yes, holes can be picked in the Arsenal line-up and the loss of Cesc Fabregas is a blow too. But they remain a talented bunch and it's foolish to write them off. Arsenal have won four and drawn one of their last five trips to Villa Park and, given their record against the top teams this year, they're more than capable of nicking a victory. Villa are no world-beaters yet so maybe the 2/1 about Arsenal is the best bet.
Verdict: Aston Villa 1 Arsenal 2 (DT)
Chelsea v West Brom
West Brom give us an ideal way of showing just how poor Chelsea's home form is. The Baggies prop up the table on 15 points and yet they've managed as many home wins in the Premier League as the second-placed Blues this season. An away record of seven losses in nine outings doesn't exactly bode well though and this could be the ideal game for Luiz Felipe Scolari's side to get the Stamford Bridge crowd cheering again. While plenty of lower-ranked teams have frustrated Liverpool at Anfield this term, it's worth noting that West Brom weren't one of them. The Baggies were overrun 3-0 by the Reds and it could be a similar case here as they lack the defensive qualities which have helped other sides hold out for draws at bigger-named rivals. We're not suggesting for a minute that you lump on the hosts at big odds-on but covering 4-0 (the margin they lost at Manchester United) and 3-0 (Anfield) could be worth a small play - especially as West Brom also lost 4-0 at Sunderland in their last away game so show no signs of increased competence at the back.
Verdict: Chelsea 4 West Brom 0 (DT)
Liverpool v Bolton
Bolton have scored a couple of famous Cup wins at Anfield (3-2 in the Carling Cup in 2003 and 2-0 in an FA Cup replay in 1993) but they've never managed a league win at Liverpool since the start of the Premier League era. But surely the 11/1 about Bolton will interest the value seekers here. The Trotters reeled off a hat-trick of away wins before losing at Villa Park on their last road trip and they're just the sort of side which Liverpool have had so much trouble finishing off in recent weeks. The Reds still top the table but their stuttering home form threatens to wreck their title ambitions and even the most ardent Liverpool fan would hesitate backing the hosts at 4/11 to rack up three points. The slight consolation is that when Liverpool don't win at home they draw so potential Bolton backers may want to adjust their sights down to a stalemate as it's the form pick. The good news is that a draw is on offer at 18/5 at VC Bet and that's a price well worth getting stuck into. Until Fernando Torres returns, the Reds are worth taking on at home at short prices and Bolton can become the latest side to test the Anfield crowd's patience.
Verdict: Liverpool 1 Bolton 1 (DT)
Manchester City v Hull City
You'd have got long odds about Hull being nine points and 12 places better off than moneybags Manchester City but that's the reality heading into the Christmas programme. Mark Hughes' men are lurching towards the January transfer window and last week's defeat at bottom-of-the-table West Brom has left them mired in the bottom three. Some of their defending in that game was shocking and with confidence low they simply can't be entertained as a betting proposition at present. And the good news is that there are plenty of reasons for opposing them in this with a Hull side which continues to be a real force on their travels. The Tigers have lost just once away from the KC Stadium (a 4-3 reverse against the red half of Manchester) and have scored in every single one of their nine away games. Admittedly they've drawn their last two on the road but could easily have bagged a six-point haul from those trips to Liverpool and Stoke. We're therefore going to flag them up at 4/1 and also throw in a couple of correct score wagers. No ground has seen more goals than Eastlands this season and only Chelsea have managed more away goals than the Tigers, so 3-2 and 4-2 scorelines in favour of Phil Brown's men make more appeal than the odds imply (68/1 and 200/1 respectively).
Verdict: Manchester City 2 Hull City 3 (JT)
Middlesbrough v Everton
This is a massive weekend for Boro who are drifting alarmingly towards the relegation trapdoor and face a trip to Manchester United after this. They are now without a win in six, a run which started with a 1-1 draw at Goodison on November 16. They were also a clear second best at Fulham last weekend and the pressure could soon be on Gareth Southgate unless things improve. Everton put up a spirited display against 10-man Chelsea on Monday night when they again coped well without having a recognised striker. Tim Cahill was pressed into service up front and it's clear their main threat at present comes from set pieces. That was certainly the case in the reverse fixture when Mikel Arteta's corners caused all sorts of problems, Cahill twice going close with near-post headers. That underlines just how dangerous the Aussie is and he's got to be worth an interest at 3/1 to score anytime.
Verdict: Middlesbrough 1 Everton 2 (JT)
Portsmouth v West Ham
Goals have been in short supply in recent matches between this pair and they couldn't even muster one between them last month despite West Ham going into the contest without a clean sheet in 24 games. This fixtureat Fratton Park last season also finished goalless and with both sides struggling for form (neither have won in December) this could turn into a nervy affair. With that in mind we're casting our thoughts back to the last meeting for a worthwhile pointer and that's full-back Glen Johnson at 28/1 to score the opener. He produced an eyecatching display at Upton Park with several marauding runs from the back and was twice denied by decent saves from Rob Green. It was no surprise to see him lash in a 25-yard stunner a week later at Hull, his second goal of the season, and his expected return from injury will be a big boost for Pompey. He's been badly missed in the defeats against Newcastle and Bolton and, in a match where it could take something special to break the deadlock, Johnson has decent claims at an attractive price.
Verdict: Portsmouth 1 West Ham 0 (JT)
Stoke City v Manchester United
Things couldn't have gone much better for United in the last couple of weeks for, while they were away in Japan winning the Club World Cup, all their main title rivals were busy dropping points. Indeed none of the 'big four' have now won since December 6 and United themselves have been in strangely subdued mood since smashing five past Stoke in the reverse fixture six weeks ago. After that five-star show they've managed just two goals in 360 minutes of Premier League football so it remains to be seen whether they are galvanised by their trip to the Far East. We all know what happened the last time the Red Devils jetted halfway round the world mid-season, hacking up by no less than 18 points in the title race. However, facing Stoke at the Britannia will surely be a completely different proposition to the Old Trafford game as the Potters have won 17 of their 20 points this season in front of their own fans. The problem is that the one match they were soundly beaten and failed to score came against Chelsea and something similar could be in the offing here. That's reflected in the prices and given United's recent exertions this looks one for a watching brief rather than a financial interest.
Verdict: Stoke 0 Manchester United 2 (JT)
Sunderland v Blackburn
It's Paul Daniels v The Great Soprendo at the Stadium of Light on Boxing Day. Well, maybe not quite but Ricky Sbragia and Sam Allardyce have both worked some instant magic since taking over at their new clubs - a recent trend in the Premier League after Harry 'Potter' Redknapp cast spells over the opposition after taking the Spurs hotseat. Sunderland have been sawing defences in half in the last two games, firing in eight goals while Allardyce produced a three-card trick inside 30 minutes against Stoke to celebrate his return to management with a convincing 3-0 win. So which manager can conjure up another win on Boxing Day? It's hard to see either's improved fortunes going up in a puff of smoke so maybe it's better to focus on a positive and look to the goalscorer markets. Djibril Cisse has scored in four of his last five Premier League home games and also netted in the 4-1 win at Stoke last time out. The flourishing Frenchman is 15/8 to bag another on Boxing Day and, to quote Debbie McGhee's smaller half, that's magic.
Verdict: Sunderland 2 Blackburn 2
Tottenham v Fulham
Fulham inflicted Harry Redknapp's first defeat as Spurs manager when this pair met last month but the stats don't suggest they'll do the double. For the Cottagers have been shocking on their travels with no wins and just two goals scored. And it's hard to explain that record because Roy Hodgson's men have looked great on home turf, moving into the top half of the table as a result. In fairness they are improving and head into this game on the back of a seven-matchunbeaten run but it's still hard to make a strong case for them until they start replicating their Craven Cottage form. It's also worth pointing out they were hammered 5-1 in this fixture last season. Goals have been much harder to come by at White Hart Lane this term with just 14 in total in nine games which means the ground with the highest goals/game ratio in 2007/8 is now 20th out of 20 in 2008/9. That's an incredible turnaround, showing just how much Spurs have tightened things up, and when allied with Fulham's recent run points us very much towards 'no goalscorer'. The Cottagers' last three away games have seen them carve out goalless draws at Stoke, Liverpool and Aston Villa so 12/1 about them making it four on the trot might just prove a late Christmas present.
Verdict: Tottenham 0 Fulham 0 (JT)
Wigan Athletic v Newcastle
Newcastle have kept clean sheets in their last three away games - at Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Chelsea - so Joe Kinnear's organisational skills are clearly having a big effect. And with Wigan having scored just nine league goals at home this season (the fourth lowest tally in the top flight) the Magpies may fancy themselves for another shutout, an 11/4 chance. However, Wigan have won all three of their home matches against Newcastle since they achieved Premier League status and have scored five goals in their last two starts at the JJB so look to have turned a corner after struggling to find the net in front of their own fans in the early part of the season. The reverse fixture saw the two sides play out a dramatic 2-2 draw at St James' Park and with both sides hard to beat in recent times another stalemate might prove to be the best option.
Verdict: Wigan 1 Newcastle 1 (DT)
Preview posted at 1135GMT on 24/12/2008.
