RICH PICKINGS WITH TOP TWO
By Dave Tindall
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PL finishing positions - last three seasons:
2007/8
Man Utd 87pts, Chelsea 85, Arsenal 83, Liverpool 76
2006/7
Man Utd 89, Chelsea 83, Liverpool 68, Arsenal 68
2005/6
Chelsea 91, Man Utd 83, Liverpool 82, Arsenal 67
After a three-horse title race last season, the marketing men will hope that Liverpool improve enough to make it a four-way battle in 2008/9?
The signing of Robbie Keane is certainly a step in the right direction for the Reds but the faffing over Gareth Barry highlights a simple truth. Liverpool are still a mile behind Chelsea and Manchester United in terms of financial muscle and, like it or not, money matters.
I've even tried reading Baseball classic "Moneyball" - the story of how the team with the lowest payroll in the game, the Oakland A's, won the second most regular season games - but still I remain convinced that Chelsea and Manchester United will buy their way into the top two positions for the fourth season running.
Of course, it's stupid to pretend that Sir Alex Ferguson hasn't done an amazing job but when even Avram Grant managed to keep Chelsea's title hopes alive until the final day of last season, it shows that if you assemble enough £20m players, they can pretty much look after themselves.
While Liverpool tried to stump up the funds for Barry by trying to offload other players, Chelsea didn't blink an eye when forking out £16.1m for Jose Bosingwa.
They were never going to shy away from Deco's wages either and is anyone particularly shocked by the astronomical figures being bandied around with the Stamford Bridge men supposedly tracking AC Milan superstar Kaka.
Apart from Keane, Liverpool have signed a bunch of squad players and it's hard to see how they can close the gap - even if Rafa Benitez toned down his squad rotation tendencies in the second half of the last season.
So can Arsenal break the duopoly at the top?
Master alchemist Arsene Wenger threatened to do so for a long time last season before, as most expected, they ran out of gas.
The problem for Wenger now is that he's starting to lose the youngsters he's helped craft much, much quicker.
Before, he had a talent for letting his stars - Henry, Pires, Vieira, Ljungberg - go after they'd reached their peak but it's a sign of the times that the likes of Mathieu Flamini and Alexander Hleb have jumped ship just as they're entering their prime.
Wenger has to work minor miracles to try and keep pace with Manchester United and Chelsea but even when he does i.e. last season, the task becomes doubly difficult at crunch time.
By reaching the final and playing the absolute maximum number of Champions League games, United and Chelsea should have been particularly stretched last term but their squads still coped comfortably with the dual assault on European and domestic glory.
So, despite the twists and turns in the transfer market, the overall picture hasn't changed. Manchester United and Chelsea are operating within different parameters to the rest.
With that belief firmly entrenched, I'm delighted that you can dutch the forecast betting to get 13/10 about United and Chelsea finishing as the top two for the fourth season running.
Man Utd-Chelsea is a 7/2 chance while Chelsea-Man Utd is 4s.
If forced to pick an outright winner, I'd slightly prefer Chelsea at 15/8 than United at 13/8.
New Chelsea boss Felipe Scolari is a winner and there is plenty in place for him already.
The likelihood of Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard staying is a huge boost to the Brazilian boss and although the same could be said about Ronaldo and United, the Portuguese winger will miss the start of the campaign and that could help Chelsea take the driving seat after being forced to play catch-up for most of last season.
But rather than make a choice, keeping both these juggernauts onside is the best way to play it and in my book it should be odds-on that they occupy the top two slots yet again.
As for the second tier of the Big Four, I'd probably just take Liverpool to shade Arsenal this time.
Benitez's men are 5/4 in the betting without Chelsea and Man Utd but that's not big enough to entice me into a punt.
Those who agree with the top two remaining there next season and Liverpool jumping up a spot could play bet365's tricast markets.
Man Utd-Chelsea-Liverpool pays 10/1 with Chelsea-Man Utd-Liverpool 11/1.
Preview posted at 2035BST on 11/08/2008.
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