This trio can continue to thrive in the top flight.
VILLANS CAN BE HEROES
By Jonathan Turner
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The top four places will almost certainly prove out of reach again - check out our verdict on how that will pan out by clicking here - but the 'best of the rest' market remains arguably the best betting heat ahead of the new Premier League season.
Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool have filled the top four spots for each of the last three years and it's hard to construct any sort of argument for them not doing so again this campaign.
But the battle for fifth looks more competitive than ever and there are a couple of sides we're keen to get with at the prices on offer.
Spurs have been clear favourites for the last few years and rewarded backers in both 2006/7 and 2005/6 when getting closest of all to arch rivals Arsenal in fourth.
However they never looked like justifying the market support last time out and eventually finished in 11th in a turbulent season at White Hart Lane which saw the departure of Martin Jol.
Juande Ramos made an immediate impact when replacing Jol as he guided Spurs to Carling Cup glory and all the signs are promising ahead of the new league campaign.
They've been superb in pre-season and though it's dangerous to take that form at face value, it's still far better to be winning games rather than losing them.
But despite Darren Bent banging in the goals for fun in the last few weeks, there are question marks up front where they've now got to make do without both Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe while there's still plenty of uncertainty over Dimitar Berbatov.
And while a back four of Gareth Bale, Ledley King, Jonathan Woodgate and Alan Hutton looks great on paper, it's not one you'd bank on appearing week in, week out given their respective injury records.
In midfield things are slotting into place, with Luka Modric and David Bentley two great acquisitions but it's going to take that pair and new keeper Heurelho Gomes time to gel in the side so at just 9/4 for fifth we're not going to get involved at this point.
Everton were the side to take advantage of Spurs' woes last season in chasing home the leading quartet but the signs coming out of Goodison aren't particularly promising.
Their lack of strength in depth cost them dear in the last campaign so it's a real surprise to see not a single name in the 'ins' column of our transfer centre while they've also lost striker Andy Johnson to Fulham.
With a full-strength team on the pitch - including pivotal pair Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta - they are a match for anyone but sustaining that over the course of the season looks like it's going to be harder than ever this campaign.
Indeed the lack of new arrivals has seen the first hints of tension between David Moyes and Bill Kenwright so the Toffees look a team to swerve at present.
It's the next two teams in the market who we are particularly sweet on - Aston Villa and Portsmouth.
Villa's marked improvement under Martin O'Neill somehow seems to have crept largely under the radar.
When he took over they'd just escaped relegation and finished with 42 points but he pushed that tally up to 50 points as he guided them to a mid-table finish in 2006/7.
And they kicked on impressively again last season when snaffling no less than 60 points to take sixth place.
The ongoing Gareth Barry situation is a worry but the signing of Steve Sidwell gives O'Neill cover for that, while snapping up Brad Friedel in goal could prove to be an inspired piece of business.
O'Neill - and chairman Randy Lerner - have gone about rebuilding Villa in just the right way and it means they've now got thebenefit of a settled and relatively young squad to which they can just add one or two players as required, the £7.8million purchase of Carlos Cuellar looking another shrewd investment and a case in point.
They are 5/1 in the 'without the big four' market and top our staking plan.
The other side we can really see challenging for fifth are Portsmouth.
We flagged up Pompey as a great each-way bet on the handicap last season and still can't quite believe we didn't collect the win part of that bet.
For Harry Redknapp's side continued their upward momentum in the league and would surely have finished higher than eighth had they not had the understandable distraction of the FA Cup which they lifted for the first time in 69 years.
It all meant that they took just one point from their final five league games, not one of which was against a side in the top six.
Still their points tallies in the last three seasons have gone up from 38 to 54 and then 57 and Redknapp again looks to have strengthened his squad with the signing of Peter Crouch from Liverpool for £11million.
He should form a dream partnership with Jermain Defoe who himself made such an impact after arriving from Spurs at the end of the January transfer window, scoring eight goals in 12 games.
Behind that pair they look strong and solid and in Lassana Diarra and Niko Kranjcar they have the creativity required in midfield.
Strangely it was their Fratton Park form which let them down last season as they won just seven games but they collected 11 victories at home the season before and if normal service is resumed then they look a great bet to easily pass the 60-point mark and put themselves right in the mix for fifth.
The one worry with both Pompey and Villa is that on the back of last season's successes they've now got Europe to contend with.
However both clubs look to have the strength in depth to cope and with the positives clearly outweighing the negatives they are very much our two against the field.
The case is even stronger when we consider the claims of those who come next in the bookies' lists.
Manchester City did superbly under Sven-Goran Eriksson last season, finishing with 55 points which was at least 12 better than their tallies in each of the previous two campaigns.
However it wasn't good enough for owner Thaksin Shinawatra which all means it's Mark Hughes who is in charge now.
And while we've got nothing but admiration for the job Hughes did at Blackburn - and before that Wales - you can't help feeling that expectations at Eastlands are completely unrealistic and could easily lead to problems ahead.
Another club to come very much into that category are Newcastle and it's a complete mystery why the bookies and their fans think a top-half finish is more likely than a bottom-half one.
Of the rest Blackburn are surely going to go backwards without Hughes at the helm and following the departures of two of their most influential players in David Bentley and Brad Friedel.
West Ham start the season with the pressure firmly on boss Alan Curbishley following the Freddie Ljungberg fiasco and he desperately needs the likes of Craig Bellamy, Kieron Dyer and Dean Ashton to shake off their various injury nightmares.
If that trio were all to play a full part then it's easy to see the Hammers improving on their 10th-place finish of last season but given their records it's not something to bet on - indeed it's far more likely things go the other way if they get off to a bad start.
Middlesbrough have finished between 12th and 14th in each of the last three seasons and there's no reason to expect a marked improvement this time around, while the rest will surely just behappy to avoid a relegation dogfight.
We're therefore going to nail our colours firmly to Villa and Pompey and we're also keen to get with them on the handicap market.
Clearly we've now got to factor in the top four and the likely strugglers but there are plenty of reasons for believing both Villa and Portsmouth have been underrated by the layers.
At the top it's hard to see any of the big four running away with the title while down at the foot it's hard to argue with the bookies' view that Hull and Stoke are going to struggle so their big starts on the handicap shouldn't be feared.
Villa get a 27pt start with Sportingbet (with champions Manchester United off scratch) and any improvement on last season's tally of 60pts would put them bang in contention.
Pompey get 30pts and they too will be looking for 60pts-plus, a perfectly realistic target given the way they fell away late on last time when all eyes were on Wembley.
We're look elsewhere in more detail at the relegation battle and sides we expect to struggle but while in positive mode we're going to add Fulham to our betting box.
They produced a quite stunning escape act at the end of last season as Roy Hodgson's influence became clearly evident.
The return from long-term injury of Jimmy Bullard was also a catalyst and it should mean they head into the new campaign full of confidence.
Hodgson has also been busy strengthening his squad and the arrivals of Andy Johnson and Bobby Zamora for a combined £16.8million should give them far more of a cutting edge up front.
Zoltan Gera adds guile in midfield and looks just the sort of player to thrive at Craven Cottage and yet they are again pitched in with the relegation candidates by the layers.
BetFred give them 45pts on the handicap and if they improve as we expect them to do then they are going to be a threat to all with that sort of start.
Preview posted at 1505BST on 12/08/2008.
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