Lee - back on top form in last couple of games.
LEE CAN SPEARHEAD AUSSIE ATTACK
By Jonathan Turner
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Given their 6-1 mauling just a couple of weeks ago it's still hard to believe England are about to take on Australia again on Friday in the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy.
Andrew Strauss' side were appalling in the NatWest Series on home soil but they've been transformed since flying to South Africa.
They took advantage of winning the toss allied to favourable bowling conditions when beating well-fancied Sri Lanka in their opening game but there was no fluke about their victory over hosts and pre-tournament favourites South Africa.
The Three Lions were simply superb with the bat, with Owais Shah, Paul Collingwood and Eoin Morgan the star men while Jimmy Anderson was the standout bowler.
A fit-again Matt Prior should come back into the side for Friday's semi-final, probably at the expsense of Ravi Bopara, and we're not going to read too much into their four-wicket defeat by New Zealand on Tuesday given that England had already qualified.
However the first thing to say about Friday's match is that the loss against the Black Caps could come back to haunt England because the group winners go through if either semi-final is washed out and the forecast for Centurion isn't good.
Anyone betting on the match needs to bear that in mind and it's a tricky game to weigh up in any case.
Australia at 4/7 would have looked huge before the tournament but they've been a little hit and miss and almost threw things away with their batting collapse against Pakistan.
They've got a real problem on the bowling front with Peter Siddle's waywardness, while Michael Clarke being out injured severely weakens the batting.
England too though are far from watertight - skipper Strauss' hot streak with the bat has come to an abrupt end while all-rounder Stuart Broad is a doubt, though he's looked a weak link with the ball anyway.
Australia have played twice at Centurion - being rained off after racking up 234-4 in 42 overs against India followed by their nailbiting win over Pakistan - while England's only game was that stellar performance against the Proteas.
We find it hard to argue with the match prices and value is thin on the ground elsewhere - though there's a temptation to take the 13/8 chalked up by Sportingbet about seven or more sixes.
It's as short as evens elsewhere so that looks generous given England's stunning transformation into master blasters while the Aussies have also been more than willing to take the aerial route for a change.
However the dodgy forecast could easily lead to a reduction in overs and the added pressure of a place in the final being at stake could easily inhibit the strokeplay.
Instead we're going to suggest a couple of players for the man-of-the-match award, both of whom have shown in the past that they thrive under pressure and when the going gets tough.
Paul Collingwood won the award in the Centurion clash with South Africa, not just for his 82 but also for 10 canny overs.
Australia's James Hopes showed again on Friday that taking the pace off the ball can be pretty effective on this surface so the gritty Collongwood should again have a key role to play in all facets of the game and merits an interest at 14/1.
Also in our staking plan is the far more flamboyant Brett Lee.
He was quite superb against Pakistan and his figures of 10-0-30-1 could easily have had a few more wickets in the final column.
Pakistan's openers could hardly lay a bat on the ball early on, let alone get him away, and the positive impression was underlined later by the speed gun which showed he had bowled the fastest ball of the tournament.
It's been a frustrating few months for Lee as he's worked hard to come back from injury but that effort is paying off in bundles now.
He's always thrived with the white ball and a fit and firing Lee could easily blow England's top order away which makes him a prime contender for man of the match at 10/1 as well as top Australian bowler at 5/2.
Preview posted at 1400BST on 01/10/2009
