Harmison - has a key role to play this week.

By Jonathan Turner

Betting Box Tipping Guide

BETTING BOX
FIXED ODDS
	1pt on England to win fifth Test at 5/2 (Centrebet & Sporting Odds).	Tricky match to call but an England win is overpriced.
	1pt on Marcus Trescothick to be top England batsman in first innings at 4/1 (general).	Loves the Oval and can set the tone for England.
	1pt on Steve Harmison to be man of the match at 16/1 (Hills).	Has the pace and height to cause problems on this surface and worth chancing.

It's the moment of truth for England this week as they bid to hammer home their 2-1 advantage and regain the Ashes in the fifth and final Test at The Oval.

The problem for punters is that - at the time of writing - we don't know whether a fully-fit Glenn McGrath is going to be in opposition.

The Australian pace bowling legend used his newspaper column over the weekend to say he was certain to start but his words have had to be taken with a pinch of salt all summer (remember the 5-0 prediction!) and the Aussie camp don't seem anything like as bullish, calling in Stuart Clark as cover.

For, make no mistake, if McGrath is cleared to play and back to somewhere near his best then Australia might just have a chance of clinging on to the famous urn.

If he's not then quotes of as short as 6/4 about an Australia victory look ludicrously short.

McGrath is the one man on either side who has yet to lose a Test this summer - his two appearances coinciding with the tourists' emphatic victory at Lord's (when he reduced England to 21 for five and took nine wickets in total) and the draw at Old Trafford.

Anyone who didn't fully appreciate just how good McGrath and Shane Warne were/are should have no doubts after this summer.

Were it not for that pair then England would have the series safely wrapped up by now.

Warne has taken 28 wickets and scored 249 runs with the bat and been magnificent throughout.

The problem though is that he's had little support from most of the other established names.

The second-string bowling - Brett Lee apart - has been a shambles and the lack of reserves was starkly illustrated by the fact that Jason Gillespie somehow managed to last three Tests despite series figures of 3-300.

The batting too just hasn't fired, with the likes of Matthew Hayden, Damien Martyn, Simon Katich and especially Adam Gilchrist looking nowhere near their best and having no answers to the myriad of successful tactical plans from England.

It's the little things that give us the clearest indication of just how far Australia have fallen - the sloppy fielding, the dropped catches, the missed run outs and the glut of no-balls.

And whatever they may say in public they look a beaten team to us - when do you last remember any Australian team conceding more than 500 to a county side as they did against Essex on Saturday?

If they are to get competitive then McGrath must start and he needs to put the brakes on England right from the outset.

The pattern of the last three Tests has seen England bat first, rack up the runs and put the Aussies under pressure.

When McGrath plays the first innings runs conceded by Australia are, astonishingly, almost 100 less - and if you put that in the context of how close the last three matches have been then it's obvious why we see him as the key man.

If Warne can just have a little bit more to play with in the fourth innings then, as he showed last time out at Trent Bridge, he still has what it takes to spin Australia to victory.

Quite how the Aussies are going to cope when Warne and McGrath retire is another matter but for now they represent their only chance of victory.

Switching to England and it's hard to praise the efforts of Michael Vaughan's men highly enough.

They've been absolutely outstanding since Lord's and it all stems from the top - Duncan Fletcher has masterminded the success along with Vaughan and they've been given every assistance by the selectors who will hope to name an unchanged Ashes XI for the first time since the 1880s.

Virtually every plan they've put in place for Australia's batsmen has worked a treat and they've taken 79 of the 80 wickets on offer so far - an amazing figure when you remember that many people wondered whether England would be able to bowl the Aussies out twice at any point this summer.

The one fitness doubt concerns Simon Jones and it would be a massive blow if he's ruled out.

He's been the biggest improver in the bowling attack and his reverse swing with the older ball has been a key weapon for Fletcher and Vaughan.

The beauty of the England attack is that they have options whatever the surface and whatever the conditions.

Matthew Hoggard came into his own when there was some conventional swing at Trent Bridge last time and in this match Steve Harmison is the man we expect to step up to the plate.

He's had his moments since Lord's but hasn't quite hit the heights of his five for 43 in the first innings at HQ but he can be the main threat on what's sure to be a hard and bouncy wicket at The Oval.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that the Oval pitch will favour the batsmen and that - when taken in tandem with the situation in the series - makes the draw a real runner this week.

One of our golden rules of Test match betting is to never back the draw but this is close to being the exception to the rule.

Whatever England might say in public they wouldn't be upset in the slighest if it rains for five days and while they'll stick with their attacking mode of play, they'll only do so up to a point.

They certainly wouldn't enforce the follow-on in similar circumstances to Trent Bridge and if they do get to bat first then the target will still to be at the crease at the close on Friday.

Having said which Australia have got to throw caution to the wind and it's a real danger for anyone backing the draw at around the 6/4 mark that they might be forced into a generous declaration if they bat first and time is running out.

It's therefore arguable that the best betting policy could be to lay Australia on the exchanges in order to get both an England win and the draw on our side.

But we can't quite resist - especially as the weather forecast looks okay at present - putting all our eggs in one basket and going for an England win.

Past reputation can be the only reason why Australia are 6/4 chances to win at the Oval whereas England are available at 5/2.

The evidence of the last three matches appears to suggest that England's upward curve has now passed Australia's downward spiral - but not according to the bookies.

The fact England have also performed so well at the Oval against the Aussies in the recent past is also a bonus - though this week's showdown is the first time for a while there's been anything riding on an Ashes Test at the ground.

Keep stakes small though given the doubts over McGrath and Jones and the fact that this incredible series probably has one or two more twists to come.

Of the other bets on offer we wouldn't touch the top Australian batsman market with a bargepole.

Rank outsiders Warne and Lee have topped the first innings run charts in the last two Tests which shows how hit and miss the whole of the top order has been.

For England the picture is a little clearer and we'd narrow it down to Marcus Trescothick, Vaughan and Flintoff - taking Andrew Strauss (struggling to convert decent starts into big scores), Ian Bell (back under pressure after the last Test) and Kevin Pietersen (regressed with the bat this series - is he starting to believe the hype?) out of the equation.

The trio on our shortlist all average over 60 at the Oval but it's Trescothick who has the strongest claims.

His highest Test score of 219 came at the ground and he's notched a fifty in more than half his innings there.

The bouncy tracks suit him so much better than a ground where there's lateral movement and unlike Vaughan (with the captaincy) and Flintoff (with the pressure of also being the main strike bowler) he just has his batting to focus on. At a general 4/1 he rates the bet.

The man of the match market has been kind to us this series and if an Australian is to win it then it will surely be McGrath or Warne.

For England an equally obvious pick is Flintoff to collect a third award of the series but this trio all rightly get single figure quotes and those looking for a bit of value could do worse than side with Steve Harmison at 16/1.

As well as the reasons outlined earlier, he's another man who has thrived at the Oval in the past. His average at the ground is 17 (compared to 28 overall) and as a player who is at his best on home soil this is his last chance to impress for a while.

It's not that long since he was the number one ranked bowler in the world and and can show exactly why by spearheading England's victory charge.