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COLUMNISTS

  • This is the home page of our Coca-Cola and Spanish football expert Mike Holden - his columms usually appear here every Wednesday morning during the season.

    Previous columns in this series:

    The Curious Case Of Les Parry
    Robins Remind Us Of Bigger Picture
    Addicks Should Brace For A Collapse
    Randomness Brings No Joy For Roy
    Dressing Up The Case For Stanley
    What now for Notts County?
    The case for the City title assault
    Adkins gets our gaffer gong
    Gorillas in the Mestalla
    Shame puts Martinez on the rocks
    Bright times with Poyet in motion
    Panic breaks a familiar pattern
    Dealing with a media darling
    Magilton making the difference
    Who can keep Mariners afloat?
    Ferguson redresses the balance
    Scott looking for capital gains
    Humility gets the better of McCall
    A world beater in the making
    Curing the crisis of confidence
    The power of beliefs and mind games
    Why more is less for Ronnie

    TIME RUNNING OUT FOR SAINTS

    For a brief moment at the weekend, it looked as though nothing was going to stop Southampton in their pursuit of a play-off place.

    News filtered through on Soccer Saturday that Saints had snatched what appeared to be a late winner at Tranmere. With Huddersfield and Millwall both trailing, it meant the margin between Alan Pardew's men and the top six would be reduced to 11 points with a game in hand.

    In light of the momentum being generated by the Hampshire club, it was far from inconceivable that they would make up the deficit with 13 games remaining.

    However, when it later transpired that Ian Thomas-Moore had netted from the penalty spot at Prenton Park, not Papa Waigo as initially reported, the complexion changed markedly.

    A bizarre mistake on the Sky Sports videprinter represented the difference between a gap and a gulf - even at this early stage - although it wasn't nearly as big as the error made by rookie referee Peter Quinn to award the penalty in the first place.

    So now Southampton must find an extra 16 points following results in Tuesday's rearranged matches and history is hardly any help in the matter because the top six are setting an unprecedented pace.

    For the first time since the English game adopted the system of three points for a win back in the early 1980s, a team in sixth position has reached the 60-point mark after 34 games, so there's no guarantee that Southampton's maximum possible total of 83 points will be enough.

    Indeed, even if the finishing pace for a play-off position slowed down to an all-time low of 14 points over the final 12 games then Saints would still be required to win 10 of their remaining 13 matches in order to squeeze in.

    So why are we even debating it?

    Well, the truth is we should debate it because there's an argument to say that if any team, in any division, in any season could overcome such a level of improbability to win promotion, then it might just be the one Pardew is building at St Mary's.

    As the most proven manager to have worked at this level since Kevin Keegan and Joe Royle operated from these humble dugouts in the late 1990s, and with the small matter of a billionaire's chequebook for assistance, it's hardly surprising that Pardew is rapidly beginning to establish Saints as the division's most powerful force.

    Indeed, Southampton couldn't have underlined that point any more emphatically than they did when humbling the Canaries in their own backyard barely a fortnight ago.

    Paul Lambert's men had established themselves as runaway leaders having won 18 of their previous 22 matches heading into the clash but a 2-0 win for the visitors was achieved in the most routine with a goal in either half from Lee Barnard and Norwich offering precious little in response.

    Now Pardew's men will be presented with another opportunity to demonstrate their increasing power when Leeds travel to the south coast on Saturday.

    To describe it as a must-win game for Southampton is an understatement because while the Whites might not be direct competitors, Pardew will be well aware that Millwall and Swindon provide the opposition for the next two matches at Elland Road and his cause can only be helped by increasing the significance of those matches.

    And the intrigue doesn't end there because the game against Simon Grayson's men signals the start of a crucial seven-day period for Saints with Swindon visiting St Mary's three days later, followed by a trip to MK Dons the weekend after.

    Should Saints fail to collect the full quota of nine points from that testing schedule, then you would have to say the game is up and they will head to Wembley for the final of the Johnstone's Paint Trophy knowing that they won't be going back there anytime soon.

    Either way, I believe it will be a shame for the division if they don't make it.

    The competitive balance of League One has been destroyed by the dominance of big-budget clubs in the last couple of years and it would be nice for value-seeking punters to rid the section of Leeds, Norwich and Southampton in one fell swoop.

    However, if Southampton stay behind, then we might as well just accept that next season will be a formality with 23 teams competing for one remaining automatic promotion spot, the knock-on effects of which will have this particular third-tier punter wishing away yet another 12 months.

  • Mike's next column will appear on March 31.

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