TEN GREAT BOOKS FOR PUNTERS

If you intend to take a relaxing break away this summer but don’t want to leave the betting entirely behind, here’s a selection of books that could accompany you on the journey and give you plenty to think about in terms of strategy as you while away the hours on a beach...

1. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

As a journalist who places great stock in the social sciences, I’m probably one of the last people Nassim Nicholas Taleb would expect to see promoting his book, let alone be ranking it at Number 1 in a Top 10 list. However, there’s no escaping the fact that this is probably the best guide you will find about the nature of probability, randomness and how it will control you and your future as a punter. This book is essentially the story of John ‘the high-yield trader’ and Nero Tulip, his neighbour and philosophical opposite. Through the tale of these two characters, a story of chance and success on Wall Street unfolds with the underlying message of how we should approach any line of investment with a fair degree of humility in a world of uncertainty. The author has a general distaste for those who portray success as primarily the result of skill or hard work and he addresses his audience in a tone that’s not usually everyone’s cup of tea. Nonetheless, this book is an excellent philosophical grounding for anybody who takes a methodical approach to punting and intends to spend rest of their days pursuing this lifestyle.

2. Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking

by Malcolm Gladwell

Ask any punter to describe what he considers to be the five most important qualities of a successful gambler and the word ‘instinct’ is bound to pop up somewhere high on the list. Ask the same person to define what he means by instinct and the next sentence will often be rather incoherent – unless, of course, he’s read Blink by Malcolm Gladwell. This book is a bible on the process of bet selection and decision making and, like so much of Gladwell’s work, it’s also a thoroughly satisfying read. The New Yorker columnist is the master of enlightenment, bringing together a diverse collection of short, digestible stories that create an overall masterpiece to leave the reader feeling remarkably fulfilled. The message is simple: stop labouring over every decision you make and start trusting those snap judgements because the results of psychological research are truly compelling! In truth, the argument is rather one-sided with Gladwell always ready to accept the claims of his sources without hint of restraint or scepticism. Mind you, curbing that side of his game would be tantamount to removing Wayne Rooney’s aggression. The high street bookshelves would be a poorer place without Gladwell’s imagination running wild.

3. The Paradox of Choice: How the Culture of Abundance Robs Us of Satisfaction

by Barry Schwartz

Whether you’re shopping in a supermarket or betting on the football, success in life is all about making the right decisions. Get those critical decisions wrong and anxiety levels are bound to creep up as a result, leaving a greater chance of failure when it comes round to making the next one. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz might be specifically referring to the psychological problems that have arisen in western society as a result of our abundant material wealth, but he could just as easily be talking about the mental dilemmas that affect punters on a day-to-day basis. So ignore the apparent irrelevance of the general message and look forward instead to the numerous little gems of advice that crop up throughout. The first chapter is a little tedious in terms of how much the author labours the point of excess in the world today but the empirical research he provides later on is priceless in the field of betting. If you believe the key to successful gambling comes through a state of calm and happiness during the selection process, then this could be your one-stop guide achieving that perfect mindset.

4. The 90-Minute Manager: Lessons from the Sharp End of Management

by David Bolchover & Chris Brady

The relationship between business management and football management has been stressed repeatedly in my columns over the past couple of years and here’s a book that identifies the similarities better than any other. When business guru David Bolchover and management professor Chris Brady got together to produce The 90-Minute Manager, their mission was simply to prove that the role of a football gaffer was the perfect model for the modern-day CEO. Needless to say, they achieved that objective compellingly with a publication that is split into three parts, totalling nine chapters and 283 pages. However, what they also produced was the only existing reference manual for punters who believe that managers hold the key to their betting fortunes. In that respect, this book is a definitive guide of good practice from clubs making the right appointment through to the various aspects of the job once the right man is in place. The structure appears to be flawless and the content is easy to read, littered with excellent supporting quotes throughout. The authors might only be repeating a great deal of what you already know but they package it in such a way that you want to start pigeon-holing gaffers for betting purposes the very next day.

5. Moneyball

by Michael Lewis

The best sports book ever written. That’s the standard verdict about Moneyball and, as somebody who couldn’t care less about baseball but found myself compelled from beginning to end, I would have to say it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. If you haven’t read this book already, we’ll work on the assumption you know nothing about baseball, which is a problem only insomuch that there’s a little jargon for you to get your head around in the early stages. However, persevere because the general plot is not too difficult to grasp and the finer details are not particularly crucial to the story. This tale should serve as an inspiration for punters, particularly the more statistically-minded among us. Anybody who crunches numbers and lives for the dream of hitting the jackpot as a result of discovering crucial information cannot fail to be captivated by the story of the Oakland A’s outperforming the rest of the Major League on one of the smallest budgets. The central character is the A’s general manager Billy Beane but the real star of the show is author Michael Lewis who tells the story just brilliantly.

6. The Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths in Modern Sport

by David Berri, Martin Schmidt & Stacey Brook

The success of Moneyball created a new buzz in the States for analysing statistical data in sport, bringing what was once the secret hobby of a few reclusive geeks into the mainstream. Suddenly, everyone had to be seen putting some effort into the selection of any office fantasy league team and it was a shift that, thankfully, created a market for this excellent publication. In The Wages of Wins, three economic professors take data from various American sports and share the fruits of their academic research to debunk many commonly held beliefs about the strengths and weaknesses of certain teams and players, both past and present. The common message throughout is that our eyes betray us when we watch professional athletes in action and we need the help of algorithms to truly understand the quality of any point guard or quarterback. Of course, it’s also true that American sports lend themselves to statistical research much better than most of the sports we watch on this side of the Atlantic but, nonetheless, this book will inject a degree of healthy scepticism about what appears to unfold before the naked eye. To those punters who like to find an edge in the shape of a spreadsheet, look no further for some creative inspiration.

7. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few

by James Surowiecki

Anybody who frequents betting exchanges without totally understanding the mechanics of a marketplace should read this book. If you ever feel daunted by the layers during a particularly dry spell or find yourself easily intimidated by the opinions of so-called experts, then this offering might provide much of the reassurance you’re looking for. James Surowiecki is an American business columnist and he promotes the idea that crowds consistently prove themselves to be more intelligent than the greatest of individuals, particularly in the area of problem solving. And as we know, there’s no greater problem than the task of pricing up the probability of sporting outcomes with precision, so why fret about it yourself when you can learn to trust the market to do the hardest part of the job on your behalf? As always, there’s a catch, and in this case that means certain conditions being met in the sample of individuals who make up the crowd. However, once you get to grips with the constitutes for diversity, independence, decentralisation and coordination, you soon realise you have, in theory, to tools to recognise when the market is behaving wrong – and that is the probably the most powerful talent that any punter can have.

8. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

After the success of Fooled by Randomness and the eerie coincidence of 9/11 occurring just weeks after it was published, it was obvious that we hadn’t heard the last of Nassim Nicholas Taleb. And the opening chapters of his second offering are just as promising as the first. In The Black Swan, the author’s general philosophy is the same but now he shifts his perspective from the overall nature of randomness to the specific impact of highly improbable events that occur as a result of our blinkered mindset. This book is in three parts, the first two of which possibly eclipse the level of enlightenment in his first book. However, the sizeable final section delves into the small print of his ideas and it all becomes rather wishy-washy, creating an over-riding sense of anti-climax. Meanwhile, Taleb himself doesn’t become any more likeable as time progresses either. After the success of Fooled, he probably attached too much importance to his brash and over-bearing voice, the result being a second tome that probably should be sub-titled: ‘Why Me and My Mates are Dead Brilliant and Everyone Else is Dead Fick.’ Still, you don’t have to like the man to benefit from his perspective and the first half of this book is certainly worth the cover price.

9. Sven-Goran Eriksson on Football

with Willi Railo & Hakan Matson

Ever wondered why players make such a fuss about playing under Sven-Goran Eriksson? How can a man who apparently does so little gain such huge respect from virtually everyone he has ever worked with? Well, the answer to those questions and more can only be understood with a basic grasp in sports psychology. And if you wish to take your knowledge of the subject beyond the novice stage, this little nugget of a book is just about the best place to begin. That said, the title is a little misleading because only a fraction of the insight actually comes from Sven himself, as he chips in with anecdotes mostly from his time in charge of Lazio. Author Hakan Matson presents the book as a narrative rather than a story with the lion’s share of the contribution coming from Willi Railo, Eriksson’s own psychological mentor. Weighing in at less than 150 double-spaced pages, and littered with pictures and diagrams throughout, it’s hardly taxing stuff and it could be easily read within a couple of days. Indeed, you suspect the book was aimed at ambitious teenagers when it was first published in Sweden but the 5-1 win over Germany heightened intrigue over here into Sven’s methodology, so the book was translated into English and repackaged as a biography.

10. Outliers: The Story of Success

by Malcolm Gladwell

Outliers is the third book written by bestselling author Malcolm Gladwell, but it’s clearly the first since the arrival and inescapable impact of Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The former used to represent everything the latter despised about journalism and its portrayal of the social sciences as deterministic paths of fate, but Gladwell appears to have cut his cloth accordingly and traces of the Taleb scepticism are pretty evident here. Indeed, you could say that an ‘outlier’ in respect of this book is simply a Black Swan in the shape of a wealthy and famous human being. And the message for punters wanting to hit the jackpot and a life of luxury is simple: we can’t all be successful, and it requires a great deal of luck to become an outlier. Nonetheless, there’s enough enlightenment in the content to give you plenty of inspiration in terms of understanding what you can do to put yourself in the frame for success. Additionally, there’s an excellent chapter on the ethnic theory of plane crashes that will give you some serious food for thought when betting on international sporting events. All in all, it’s good entertainment and typical Gladwell. Once you pick it up, you will struggle to put it back down.